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ARST

Arkansas State 18 at Michigan 28

MICH
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:01 · Ryan Heicher punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Pregame prior+25.2Home team on offense+13.1Score differential+3.9Garbage-time factor+2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:41: Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +3.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:57: Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — MICH win probability +3.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:38: Timmy McClain pass complete to Reginald Harden Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +1.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:08: Timmy McClain pass complete to Reginald Harden Jr. for 22 yds for a TD (T. McClain Run For Two-point Conversion) — ARST win probability +5.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:08: (00:08) [SG] Kneel down by ORJI, Alex at UOM25 (team loss of 0), clock 00:06. — MICH win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:02ARST 4th & 1 at MICH 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:46ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:18ARST 4th & 4 at MICH 9, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.1%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:01ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:01ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:02ARST 4th & 1 at MICH 21, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.4%−1.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:25MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 39, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:32ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 41, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:38ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 32, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:28MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 35, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:05MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 2:23MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:41MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:57MICH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:49MICH Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:38ARST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:08ARST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 5:569% → 11%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.7%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 26Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
90.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 1 yd to the ARST 27Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
90.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
90.3%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-10
90.1%
(13:09) RAYNOR, Jaylen scrambles to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the AKS47 (HILL, Jyaire;HAUSMANN, Ernest), clock 13:00. PENALTY AKS Holding on NDOMA-OGAR, EJ enforced 10 yards from the AKS43 to the AKS33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 17
OWN 33
-3
90.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 30Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 20
OWN 30
+26
90.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 11 yds to the MICH 41 for a 1ST down Michigan Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ernest Hausmann) to the MICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
89.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the MICH 44Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
89.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 5 yards to the MICH 49 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor J. Raynor return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+16
89.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 16 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
89.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 4 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
89.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 4 yds to the MICH 25Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
88.9%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the MICH 24Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+42
88.9%
Clune Van Andel 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 6:3789% → 89%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
89.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 25Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 9
OWN 25
-5
88.8%
Michigan Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MICH 20Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+13
88.6%
Semaj Morgan run for 13 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+1
88.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
88.3%
Davis Warren run for 1 yd to the MICH 35Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+4
88.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+8
88.0%
Davis Warren pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 8 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
88.1%
Davis Warren sacked by Ian Jeffries for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 46Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+5
87.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+13
87.6%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 13 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
87.6%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+30
89.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 30 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3511% → 11%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.6%
Cedric Hawkins run for no gain to the ARST 25Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
88.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Ryan Heicher punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:0389% → 89%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
88.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the MICH 30Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+9
88.9%
Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-30
88.8%
Davis Warren pass intercepted Charles Willekes return for 30 yds to the MICH 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1013% → 14%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
87.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 6 yds to the MICH 9Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
87.1%
Malik Hornsby run for no gain to the MICH 9Similar
Q2 14:24
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
87.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
86.1%
Clune Van Andel 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 7:3787% → 90%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
86.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
86.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 37Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+10
86.1%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 10 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
86.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 5 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+4
86.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
86.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
86.1%
Davis Warren sacked by Jayden Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 47Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+8
85.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+17
85.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 17 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
86.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the ARST 13Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+6
86.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.9%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3811% → 11%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
88.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 2 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
88.9%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Ernest Hausmann for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 22Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
89.4%
Ryan Heicher punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:5990% → 93%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
89.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 7 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+13
89.8%
Davis Warren pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 13 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+30
90.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 30 yds to the ARST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:547% → 7%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.9%
Devin Spencer run for 2 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
93.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 3 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
92.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
92.8%
Ryan Heicher punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10INT
5 plays · 49 yds · 0:4094% → 94%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
93.7%
(01:55) WARREN, Davis pass up the middle complete for 20 yards to LOVELAND, Colston caught at the UOM35 and advanced to the UOM40 (JOYNER, Dontay), clock 01:50. PENALTY Before the snap, UOM Illegal Formation on LOVELAND, Colston enforced 5 yards from the UOM20 to the UOM15. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+7
93.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Marlin Klein for 7 yds to the MICH 22Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+33
93.6%
Davis Warren pass complete to Marlin Klein for 33 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
94.0%
Benjamin Hall run for 14 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.1%
Davis Warren pass intercepted Trevian Thomas return for no gain to the ARST 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 1:087% → 9%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
92.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 1 yd to the ARST 22Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+18
93.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 18 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
92.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
91.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+18
92.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 18 yds to the MICH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
91.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
91.3%
Michigan Penalty, Offsides (Fredrick Moore) to the MICH 25Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 5
OPP 25
-5
91.0%
Arkansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MICH 30Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
91.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 6 yds to the MICH 24Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+3
91.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 3 yds to the MICH 21Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+38
90.9%
Clune Van Andel 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 4:2993% → 95%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
93.3%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 7 yds to the MICH 24Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 3
OWN 24
-1
95.0%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 23Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+13
94.7%
Davis Warren run for 13 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
95.3%
(12:51) EDWARDS, Donovan rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the UOM43 (HAM, Marvin), clock 12:48. PENALTY UOM Holding on LINK, Evan enforced 10 yards from the UOM36 to the UOM26 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 20
OWN 26
-2
95.3%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 24Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 22
OWN 24
+4
95.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 18
OWN 28
+11
95.3%
Davis Warren pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 11 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
95.4%
Tommy Doman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:465% → 5%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
94.7%
Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+6
94.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 6 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
94.6%
Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the ARST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
94.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 13 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
94.6%
(08:17) SPENCER, Devin rush to the left for no gain to the AKS41 (HAUSMANN, Ernest), clock 08:14. PENALTY AKS Holding on BAYER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the AKS41 to the AKS31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 20
OWN 31
0
95.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 20
OWN 31
0
95.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for no gain to the ARST 31Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 20
OWN 31
+10
95.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 10 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
95.3%
Ryan Heicher punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 2:0696% → 96%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
96.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 11Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+8
96.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the MICH 19Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+9
96.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 9 yds to the MICH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-14
96.4%
Davis Warren pass intercepted Dontay Joyner return for 14 yds to the MICH 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:585% → 5%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
95.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the MICH 34Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
94.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
95.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+14
95.5%
(03:29) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for STEVENSON JR., Manny broken up by JOHNSON, Quinten at the UOM5, clock 03:22. PENALTY UOM Face mask on MOORE, Derrick enforced 14 yards from the UOM34 to the UOM20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
94.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
94.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
95.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted, touchback. Makari Paige return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 5:1897% → 100%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
96.5%
Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 21Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
96.5%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
96.7%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the MICH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.8%
Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the MICH 32Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
96.9%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the MICH 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+13
97.3%
Alex Orji run for 13 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
97.6%
Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+38
97.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 38 yds to the ARST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.5%
Alex Orji pass complete to Hogan Hansen for 9 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.3%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 3 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.4%
Ryan Heicher punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
99.5%
Alex Orji run for 10 yds to the MICH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.6%
Benjamin Hall run for 5 yds to the MICH 34Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+1
99.6%
Benjamin Hall run for 1 yd to the MICH 35Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Tommy Doman punt for 29 yds, downed at the ARST 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:420% → 2%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.6%
Timmy McClain run for 5 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
99.6%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
99.6%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
99.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Adam Jones for 11 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Reginald Harden Jr. for 6 yds to the MICH 36Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+9
99.7%
Devin Spencer run for 9 yds to the MICH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.6%
Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the MICH 24Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
97.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Reginald Harden Jr. for 24 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3398% → 99%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Alex Orji pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.4%
Alex Orji pass complete to Marlin Klein for 3 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
98.5%
Alex Orji run for 4 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
98.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:512% → 8%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Tennel Bryant for 9 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
98.3%
Mike Sharpe II run for 3 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.3%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
98.3%
Mike Sharpe II run for 8 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
98.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Mike Sharpe II for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
50
+5
97.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Malik Hornsby for 5 yds to the MICH 45Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
97.8%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
97.8%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+15
97.8%
(00:37) MCCLAIN, Timmy pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SUMMERS, Hunter thrown to the UOM20, clock 00:33. PENALTY UOM Roughing the Passer on NICHOLS, Dominic enforced 15 yards from the UOM43 to the UOM28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.4%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
97.6%
Timmy McClain run for 6 yds to the MICH 22Similar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+22
92.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Reginald Harden Jr. for 22 yds for a TD (T. McClain Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
(00:08) [SG] Kneel down by ORJI, Alex at UOM25 (team loss of 0), clock 00:06.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:08
Timmy McClain pass complete to Reginald Harden Jr. for 22 yds for a TD (T. McClain Run For Two-point Conversion)
-5.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:08
(00:08) [SG] Kneel down by ORJI, Alex at UOM25 (team loss of 0), clock 00:06.
+4.9
TD · Q2 6:41
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com