2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:18 · Ryan Heicher punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTimeout advantageBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:00: Laith Marjan 42 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +5.3 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Defense has -3 timeouts left).
- TD · Q3 1:09: Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 75 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +17.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:58: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Little for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ARST win probability +17.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:49: Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — USA win probability +42.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:10: Clune Van Andel 34 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +71.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 10USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 12:27ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 38, tiedClose callPunted · 45.6% before the snapGo for it45.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:43USA 4th & 6 at USA 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snapGo for it53.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.9%average punt
- Q1 9:29ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 24, tiedClose callPunted · 46.0% before the snapGo for it46.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:19USA 4th & 2 at USA 41, tiedClose callPunted · 53.5% before the snapGo for it53.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:43ARST 4th & 3 at USA 3, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snapGo for it47.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call47.6%−0.393% to makePunt45.8%−2.1average punt
- Q1 1:42USA 4th & 1 at ARST 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.0%70% to convertField goal49.6%−1.534% to makePunt49.7%−1.3average punt
- Q2 9:41ARST 4th & 17 at USA 41, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snapGo for it49.8%−1.015% to convertField goal50.3%−0.532% to makePuntTheir call50.8%average punt
- Q2 4:06USA 4th & 2 at ARST 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.8%57% to convertField goal46.8%−1.075% to makePunt41.0%−6.8average punt
- Q2 2:00ARST 4th & 1 at USA 44, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.1%70% to convertField goal53.3%−2.827% to makePunt53.9%−2.2average punt
- Q2 1:01ARST 4th & 3 at USA 3, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snapGo for it55.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call55.1%−0.893% to makePunt48.6%−7.2average punt
- Q3 11:38USA 4th & 7 at USA 35, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snapGo for it41.3%−1.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.6%average punt
- Q3 9:18ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 27, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snapGo for it54.9%−3.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.4%average punt
- Q3 4:49USA 4th & 14 at USA 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snapGo for it37.5%−3.318% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.8%average punt
- Q3 1:54ARST 4th & 5 at USA 7, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snapGo for it61.7%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call61.9%91% to makePunt48.2%−13.8average punt
- Q4 14:10ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 27, down 1Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snapGo for it47.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.2%−0.8average punt
- Q4 11:31USA 4th & 12 at USA 27, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snapGo for it46.9%−5.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.9%average punt
- Q4 0:10ARST 4th & 3 at USA 17, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.6% before the snapGo for it30.8%−35.651% to convertField goalTheir call66.4%80% to makePunt10.7%−55.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q3 1:09USA Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.4%97% to makeGo for two48.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:58ARST Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick76.9%−0.997% to makeGo for twoTheir call77.8%45% to convert
- Q4 1:49USA Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick59.1%−0.897% to makeGo for twoTheir call59.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARSTDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2349% → 49%
USADrive 2PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 1:3651% → 50%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
49.4%
Arkansas State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+9
49.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 9 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
49.6%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0950% → 50%
USADrive 4PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0350% → 50%
ARSTDrive 5FG8 plays · 83 yds · 2:3650% → 52%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+50
50.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 50 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+13
51.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
51.6%
(05:39) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for STEVENSON JR., Manny thrown to the USA0, clock 05:36. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on VOISIN, Jaden enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the USA9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
51.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 6 yds to the USA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6INT11 plays · 65 yds · 4:4548% → 50%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
51.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 13 yds to the USA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
51.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 13 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
50.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 5 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+9
51.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 9 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-6
50.3%
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Justin Parks return for 6 yds to the ARST 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT14 plays · 51 yds · 5:1353% → 55%
Q2 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+6
53.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 6 yds to the ARST 16Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+4
53.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 4 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+11
54.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 11 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+19
54.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 19 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 9
OPP 33
-8
56.5%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Courtney McBride Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the USA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8DOWNS16 plays · 70 yds · 5:2646% → 46%
Q2 7:07
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
55.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 10 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
52.8%
(06:26) LOPEZ, Gio pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for WEBB, Jeremiah thrown to the ASU15, clock 06:21. PENALTY ASU Roughing the Passer on PARKS, Justin enforced 15 yards from the USA46 to the ASU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-10
51.3%
(05:08) LOPEZ, Gio pass to the left complete for 11 yards to BOTHWELL, Fluff caught at the ASU27 and advanced to the ASU13 (THOMAS, Trevian), clock 05:04. PENALTY USA Illegal Formation declined USA Holding on EAGER, Anthony enforced 10 yards from the ASU24 to the ASU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 2
OPP 20
-1
53.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9FG16 plays · 76 yds · 3:0259% → 65%
Q2 3:05
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+15
58.0%
South Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Gavin Forsha) to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
61.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 7 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
60.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 21 yds to the USA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
60.8%
(01:24) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for RUCKER, Corey broken up by NEELY, Reggie at the USA0, clock 01:21. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on NEELY, Reggie enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the USA6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10FG8 plays · 45 yds · 0:5934% → 44%
USADrive 11PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1942% → 40%
ARSTDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1359% → 58%
Q3 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-2
59.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 32Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-5
58.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 27Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
57.5%
Ryan Heicher punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jamaal Pritchett at the USA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT13 plays · 20 yds · 4:2642% → 39%
Q3 8:48
2ND & 2
OWN 34
-10
56.3%
(08:48) QB Keeper LOPEZ, Gio rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the USA43 (JEFFERY, Cam), clock 08:41. PENALTY USA Holding on PRECIADO, Malachi enforced 10 yards from the USA34 to the USA24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
57.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 7 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-3
55.0%
Gio Lopez sacked by Micaiah Overton for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 49Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-5
56.8%
South Alabama Penalty, Delay Of Game (Braylon McReynolds) to the USA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14FG8 plays · 79 yds · 2:4560% → 69%
USADrive 15TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4435% → 52%
ARSTDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5540% → 37%
USADrive 17PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3855% → 52%
Q4 12:11
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-5
44.7%
(12:11) LOPEZ, Gio scrambles up the middle for a gain of 46 yards to the ASU22 (THOMAS, Trevian;ETIENNE, Websley), clock 12:01. PENALTY Before the snap, USA Illegal Formation on DAVIS, Jordan enforced 5 yards from the USA32 to the USA27. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD10 plays · 58 yds · 5:3043% → 66%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
43.2%
Jaylen Raynor sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 37 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+17
35.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 17 yds to the USA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
47.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 6 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+11
46.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the USA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
49.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 13 yds to the USA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Tyler Little for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD13 plays · 80 yds · 4:0731% → 71%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
69.3%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 7 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+38
68.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 38 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
60.7%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 4 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+12
67.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 12 yds to the ARST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 15
OPP 16
-10
70.5%
(02:03) LOPEZ, Gio pass short to the right complete for 3 yards to BOTHWELL, Fluff caught at the ASU13 and advanced to the ASU13 (JOYNER, Dontay), out of bounds, clock 01:56. PENALTY USA Holding on CARNEY, Malachi enforced 10 yards from the ASU16 to the ASU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 25
OPP 26
+26
29.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20FG12 plays · 60 yds · 1:3345% → 94%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
44.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 8 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+7
46.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 7 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
41.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 7 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+9
43.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 9 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
45.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
49.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
44.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 8 yds to the USA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:10
Clune Van Andel 34 yd FG GOOD
+71.2
TD · Q4 1:49
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-42
TD · Q3 1:09
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 75 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
-17.3