Try the model
ARST

Arkansas State 7 at Iowa State 52

ISU
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Jack Trice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:52 · Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+32.1Home team on offense+4.5Score differential+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Blowout margin+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:47: Carson Hansen run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +0.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:45: Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +2.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 9:00: Kyle Konrardy 31 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +1.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:21: Rocco Becht pass complete to Tyler Moore for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:27: Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 16 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:45ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:18ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:41ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:59ARST 4th & 11 at ISU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:52ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:56ARST 4th & 2 at ISU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−1.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:00ISU 4th & 6 at ARST 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:00ARST 4th & 30 at ARST 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:59ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:47ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 38, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:10ISU 4th & 2 at ARST 33, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:58ISU 4th & 22 at ISU 29, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:47ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:45ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:21ISU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:27ISU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:00ISU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:54ISU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:53ARST Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:24ISU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4290% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.3%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.3%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
90.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the ISU 34Similar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
89.9%
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the ISU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
89.8%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ISU 38Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
89.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
89.6%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
89.5%
Tyler Perkins punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4111% → 11%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
89.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
89.5%
Devin Spencer run for 5 yds to the ARST 26Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
89.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:2789% → 90%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
89.3%
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the ISU 42Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+28
89.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 28 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
89.2%
Carson Hansen run for 23 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
89.1%
Carson Hansen run for 6 yds to the ARST 1Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.1%
Rocco Becht run for no gain to the ARST 1Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.5%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0411% → 11%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
89.4%
(08:23) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for RUCKER, Corey broken up by VERDON, Malik at the ARST45, clock 08:20. PENALTY Before the snap, ISU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ARST28 to the ARST33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
89.2%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 33Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
89.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+34
89.3%
Ryan Heicher punt for 56 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 34 yds to the ISU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-20
90.4%
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Dontay Joyner return for 20 yds to the ARST 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:1711% → 11%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
89.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
89.2%
Arkansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARST 38Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
89.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+20
89.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 20 yds to the ISU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
88.5%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ISU 38Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-10
88.4%
Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Corey Rucker) to the ISU 43Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
88.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ISU 43Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
88.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
88.9%
Ryan Heicher punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:0890% → 92%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
90.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Abu Sama III for 7 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+17
90.2%
Abu Sama III run for 17 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
90.4%
Jaylon Jackson run for 2 yds to the ISU 46Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
90.4%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+26
89.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 26 yds to the ARST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
90.2%
Abu Sama III run for 5 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+10
90.1%
Jaylon Jackson run for 10 yds to the ARST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
90.1%
Jaylon Jackson run for 3 yds to the ARST 10Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
89.6%
Carson Hansen run for 9 yds to the ARST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.7%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8INT
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:109% → 10%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.7%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
90.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 13 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
90.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 7 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
90.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
90.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q2 13:52
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
90.6%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
50
0
90.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
50
0
90.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 10
50
+8
90.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 8 yds to the ISU 42Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+5
90.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 5 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
90.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Jeremiah Cooper return for 6 yds to the ISU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:2892% → 95%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
92.2%
Rocco Becht run for 4 yds to the ISU 39Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+44
93.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 44 yds to the ARST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
92.9%
Dylan Lee run for 6 yds to the ARST 11Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
92.9%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 4
OPP 11
-2
93.3%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 13Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
95.3%
Kyle Konrardy 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:527% → 7%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
92.9%
Devin Spencer run for 3 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-5
92.8%
(08:30) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass to the left complete for 6 yards to JONES, Adam caught at the ARST40 and advanced to the ARST47 (HOWARD, Trevon), clock 08:26. PENALTY Before the snap, ARST Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the ARST41 to the ARST36. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+22
92.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 22 yds to the ISU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-34
91.8%
run for a loss of 34 yards to the ARST 24 fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor J. Raynor return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 44
OWN 24
+14
92.7%
Devin Spencer run for 14 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 30
OWN 38
0
92.8%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 38Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 30
OWN 38
+19
93.2%
Ryan Heicher punt for 47 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 19 yds to the ISU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:2296% → 98%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
96.0%
Jaylon Jackson run for 10 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
96.2%
Jaylon Jackson run for 7 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
96.0%
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+24
95.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 24 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
95.9%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+9
95.9%
Abu Sama III run for 9 yds to the ARST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
97.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Tyler Moore for 10 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:344% → 4%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
96.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-38
96.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Malik Verdon return for 38 yds to the ARST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 16 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
99.2%
Timmy McClain run for 18 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
99.1%
Timmy McClain sacked by Joey Petersen for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 38Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 17
OWN 38
-1
99.2%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
99.2%
Timmy McClain sacked by Kooper Ebel for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 25Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Timmy McClain run for no gain to the ARST 25Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
Ryan Heicher punt for 50 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 6 yds to the ISU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:4899% → 100%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.0%
Dylan Lee run for 2 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
99.2%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 5 yards to the ISU 43Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+5
99.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 5 yds to the ISU 48Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+21
99.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 21 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
99.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 18 yds to the ARST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
99.5%
Jaylon Jackson run for 7 yds to the ARST 6Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+3
99.6%
Jaylon Jackson run for 3 yds to the ARST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.6%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:130% → 0%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.6%
Devin Spencer run for 5 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.6%
Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
99.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 8 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.7%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
99.7%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-8
99.7%
Timmy McClain sacked by Kenard Snyder for a loss of 8 yards to the ARST 38Similar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Ryan Heicher punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.7%
Iowa State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ISU 24Similar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 11
OWN 24
-2
99.7%
Jaylon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 22Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+11
99.7%
Connor Moberly pass complete to Tripp Walsh for 11 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
99.8%
Carson Hansen run for 8 yds to the ISU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.8%
Dylan Lee run for 2 yds to the ISU 43Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-10
99.8%
Connor Moberly pass intercepted Websley Etienne return for 10 yds to the ISU 42 Websley Etienne fumbled, recovered by ISU Eli Green E. Green return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:23100% → 100%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
99.8%
Dylan Lee run for 5 yds to the ISU 47Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+12
99.8%
Jaylon Jackson run for 12 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.8%
Jaylon Jackson run for 1 yd to the ARST 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+7
99.8%
Connor Moberly pass complete to Dylan Lee for 7 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Connor Moberly pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+7
99.9%
Connor Moberly pass complete to Tyler Moore for 7 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
99.9%
Connor Moberly pass complete to Beni Ngoyi for 17 yds to the ARST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
99.9%
Dylan Lee run for 7 yds to the ARST 2Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Dylan Lee run for 1 yd to the ARST 1Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Dylan Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Devin Spencer run for 5 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Devin Spencer for 5 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Devin Spencer run for 4 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+10
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Hunter Summers for 10 yds to the ISU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
99.9%
Timmy McClain sacked by Ikenna Ezeogu for a loss of 6 yards to the ISU 47Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+6
99.9%
Timmy McClain run for 6 yds to the ISU 41 Timmy McClain fumbled, recovered by ISU John Klosterman J. Klosterman return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Dylan Lee run for 2 yds to the ISU 43Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-8
99.9%
Connor Moberly sacked by Noah Collins for a loss of 8 yards to the ISU 35Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 16
OWN 35
-6
99.9%
Aiden Flora run for a loss of 6 yards to the ISU 29Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 22
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 14 yds, downed at the ISU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Devin Spencer run for 5 yds to the ISU 38Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+10
99.9%
Devin Spencer run for 10 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
100.0%
Devin Spencer run for 1 yd to the ISU 27Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Hunter Summers for 27 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:27100% → 100%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.9%
Connor Moberly run for 18 yds to the ISU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
100.0%
Connor Moberly pass complete to Kai Black for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 3
50
+7
100.0%
Aiden Flora run for 7 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
100.0%
Aiden Flora run for 3 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+12
100.0%
Aiden Flora run for 12 yds to the ARST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
100.0%
Aiden Flora run for 3 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+17
100.0%
Connor Moberly run for 17 yds to the ARST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
100.0%
Aiden Flora run for 8 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Damon Sisa run for 1 yd to the ARST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:27
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 16 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q1 0:45
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)
+2
FG · Q2 9:00
Kyle Konrardy 31 yd FG GOOD
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com