Try the model
ODU

Old Dominion 40 at Arkansas State 32

ARST
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreODU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:48 · Ryan Heicher punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Home team on offense−4.2Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−1.2Pregame prior−5.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:58: Aaron Young run for 24 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +16.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:54: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +23.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:46: Quinn Henicle pass complete to Pat Conroy for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez PAT MISSED) — ODU win probability +12.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:48: Quinn Henicle run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +10.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:23: Zak Wallace run for 10 yds for a TD (Jaylen Raynor pass to Corey Rucker for Two-Point Conversion) — ARST win probability +13.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 4:02ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:43ODU 4th & 1 at ARST 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.1%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:58ARST 4th & 8 at ODU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 32, up 7
    Close callPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:48ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:55ODU 4th & 14 at ODU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:49ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−2.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:06ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:58ARST 4th & 9 at ODU 35, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:05ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 45, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.8%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:41ODU 4th & 20 at ODU 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−2.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:03ARST 4th & 8 at ODU 8, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.8%−1.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−5.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ODU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:37ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:43ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:58ARST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:58ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:54ARST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:40ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:58ARST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:46ODU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:48ODU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:23ARST Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    14.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5742% → 43%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
42.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
42.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 24Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-5
42.2%
(14:04) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass to the right complete for 8 yards to RUCKER, Corey caught at the ASU32 and advanced to the ASU32, End of Play, clock 13:59. PENALTY Before the snap, ASU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ASU24 to the ASU19. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+12
42.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
42.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
42.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 14 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
43.0%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 44Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+7
43.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted Will Jones II return for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2TD
1 play · 92 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+92
41.8%
Quinn Henicle run for 92 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:1942% → 42%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+54
41.6%
Zak Wallace run for 39 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST down Old Dominion Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ODU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
42.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 11 yds to the ODU 10 Ja'Quez Cross fumbled, recovered by ODU Patrick Smith-Young P. Smith-Young return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4TD
14 plays · 90 yds · 5:3458% → 64%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
41.6%
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ODU 14Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+7
41.6%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Pat Conroy for 7 yds to the ODU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
41.5%
Aaron Young run for 2 yds to the ODU 23Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+17
41.5%
Quinn Henicle run for 17 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
40.9%
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
40.7%
Aaron Young run for 5 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
40.6%
Aaron Young run for 2 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
40.2%
Devin Roche run for 21 yds to the ARST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
39.9%
Quinn Henicle run for 4 yds to the ARST 24Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+23
39.8%
Devin Roche run for 23 yds to the ARST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
39.7%
Devin Roche run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 2Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
39.4%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd to the ARST 1Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.4%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3938% → 37%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
37.4%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Denzel Lowry for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 26Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
37.1%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jeremy Mack Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 19Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
36.8%
Ryan Heicher punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1565% → 65%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
35.4%
Aaron Young run for 5 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+4
35.1%
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
34.9%
Aaron Young run for no gain to the ARST 49Similar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-2
35.0%
Quinn Henicle run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:2633% → 39%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
33.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
33.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 5 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+6
33.0%
(01:56) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass up the middle incomplete intended for EALY, Reagan broken up by JONES II, Will at the ODU38, clock 01:53. PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on JONES II, Will enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the ODU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
33.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
33.0%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
32.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+36
39.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 36 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5361% → 61%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
39.4%
Quinn Henicle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
39.5%
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+5
39.3%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Myles Alston for 5 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
39.3%
Seamus Hall punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1139% → 38%
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
39.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for no gain to the ARST 27Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
38.9%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Kris Trinidad for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 26Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+2
38.4%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+5
38.1%
Old Dominion Penalty, Offsides (Jeremy Mack Jr.) to the ARST 33Similar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
38.4%
Ryan Heicher punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4561% → 60%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
38.6%
Quinn Henicle run for 3 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
38.2%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Pat Conroy for no gain to the ODU 30Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-7
38.8%
Quinn Henicle sacked by Kamari Stephens for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 23Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 14
OWN 23
+18
39.9%
Seamus Hall punt for 51 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 18 yds to the ARST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:5443% → 40%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
42.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
41.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-9
41.3%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Koa Naotala for a loss of 9 yards to the ARST 35Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 19
OWN 35
+3
40.3%
Ryan Heicher punt for 41 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 3 yds to the ODU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3862% → 78%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
37.7%
Tariq Sims run for 1 yd to the ODU 28Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+1
37.8%
Quinn Henicle run for 1 yd to the ODU 29Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+12
38.2%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Isiah Paige for 12 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
40.1%
Aaron Young run for no gain to the ODU 41Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
40.4%
Aaron Young run for 3 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+29
40.2%
Quinn Henicle run for 29 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
38.8%
(06:42) HENICLE, Quinn pass short to the left incomplete intended for LOTT, TJ thrown to the ASU25; QB hurried by WHITEHEAD, Bryan, clock 06:37. PENALTY ASU Holding on PARKS, Justin enforced 10 yards from the ASU27 to the ASU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
38.8%
Quinn Henicle sacked by Bryan Whitehead for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 24Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+24
22.4%
Aaron Young run for 24 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:5923% → 44%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
22.6%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+16
21.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 16 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
23.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
23.1%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
22.3%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
23.1%
Zak Wallace run for 21 yds to the ODU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
23.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 2 yds to the ODU 22Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+7
22.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 7 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+15
43.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3863% → 60%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
37.5%
Quinn Henicle run for 2 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
37.5%
Quinn Henicle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
38.2%
Quinn Henicle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
39.6%
Seamus Hall punt for 46 yds, downed at the ARST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:5441% → 38%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
41.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
41.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 3 yds to the ARST 15Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+8
38.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1866% → 79%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
33.6%
Quinn Henicle run for 12 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST down Old Dominion Penalty, Personal Foul (Pat Conroy) to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
33.9%
Arkansas State Penalty, Personal Foul (Noah Collins) to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
31.6%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Aaron Young for 2 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+37
31.5%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Aaron Young for 37 yds to the ARST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
30.5%
Quinn Henicle run for 7 yds to the ARST 10Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
30.3%
Aaron Young run for 2 yds to the ARST 8Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+5
30.5%
Aaron Young run for 5 yds to the ARST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
28.5%
Old Dominion Penalty, False Start (Santana Saunders) to the ARST 8Similar
Q3 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
20.9%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Pat Conroy for 8 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4026% → 36%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.7%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 26Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
25.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
24.7%
Old Dominion Penalty, Defensive Holding (Khian'Dre Harris) to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
26.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 19 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
26.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
27.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-2
26.2%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Kris Trinidad for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 35Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+35
35.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 35 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
22.5%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Pat Conroy for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3922% → 20%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
22.3%
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
22.1%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
21.8%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
21.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
20.1%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 45Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
19.5%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 1:1281% → 93%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
18.6%
Aaron Young run for 22 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
17.7%
Quinn Henicle run for 22 yds to the ARST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.1%
Quinn Henicle run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:248% → 19%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
7.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 9 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
6.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
6.4%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
7.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the ARST 38Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+12
6.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
50
+6
6.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 6 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+10
6.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 10 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
6.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+11
6.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 11 yds to the ODU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
6.1%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ODU 17Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+7
5.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 7 yds to the ODU 10Similar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
19.2%
Zak Wallace run for 10 yds for a TD (Jaylen Raynor pass to Corey Rucker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:3681% → 86%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
18.7%
Devin Roche run for 8 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+11
18.0%
Devin Roche run for 11 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
17.6%
Devin Roche run for 20 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
14.8%
Devin Roche run for 3 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+5
14.5%
Quinn Henicle run for 5 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-10
14.0%
(12:08) QB Keeper HENICLE, Quinn rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the ASU28 (PARKS, Justin), clock 12:02. PENALTY ODU Holding on CONROY, Pat enforced 10 yards from the ASU34 to the ASU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 12
OPP 44
-3
13.9%
Quinn Henicle pass complete to Devin Roche for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 47Similar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 15
OPP 47
-5
13.9%
Old Dominion Penalty, Delay Of Game (Isiah Paige) to the ODU 48Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 20
OWN 48
0
13.8%
Seamus Hall punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:3412% → 12%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
11.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 18Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+12
10.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 12 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
11.8%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Ricardo Williams Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 27Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+9
11.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 9 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+13
11.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 13 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
12.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+15
12.1%
(08:11) RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for JONES, Adam thrown to the ODU30, clock 08:07. PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on SMITH-YOUNG, Patrick enforced 15 yards to the ODU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
13.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 7 yds to the ODU 29Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+8
14.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 8 yds to the ODU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
13.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+12
13.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 12 yds to the ODU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
12.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
12.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the ODU 8Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
10.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
12.4%
Clune Van Andel 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24Uncategorized
17 plays · 41 yds · 5:3392% → 97%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
8.3%
Aaron Young run for 11 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
7.6%
Quinn Henicle run for 7 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+3
6.5%
Aaron Young run for 3 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
5.8%
Old Dominion Penalty, False Start (Santana Saunders) to the ODU 37Similar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+5
6.6%
Aaron Young run for 5 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
4.9%
Aaron Young run for 3 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+12
4.4%
Quinn Henicle run for 12 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
2.7%
Aaron Young run for 5 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
2.7%
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
2.6%
Quinn Henicle run for 1 yd to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
2.6%
(01:35) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at ASU35 (team loss of 2), clock 01:26.Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-3
2.6%
(00:48) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at ASU38 (team loss of 3), clock 00:46.Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+5
2.8%
(00:24) Kneel down by TEAM at ASU33 (team loss of 2), clock 00:18. PENALTY Before the snap, ASU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ASU38 to the ASU33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:54
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Manny Stevenson Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Clune Van Andel KICK)
+23.4
TD · Q2 5:58
Aaron Young run for 24 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
-16.4
TD · Q3 0:23
Zak Wallace run for 10 yds for a TD (Jaylen Raynor pass to Corey Rucker for Two-Point Conversion)
+13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com