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ARST

Arkansas State 0 at Oklahoma 73

OU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:54 · Dominic Zvada 44 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior+45.3Home team on offense+6.0Score differential+3.8Blowout margin+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Garbage-time factor+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:50: Marcus Major run for 2 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:31: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 7 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:21: Tawee Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — ARST win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:33: Dillon Gabriel run for 5 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK) — ARST win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:38ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:24ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:54ARST 4th & 12 at OU 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:33ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:38ARST 4th & 8 at OU 26, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:30ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 34, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:37OU 4th & 3 at ARST 3, up 42
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:40ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 27, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:03ARST 4th & 2 at OU 38, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:05ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 33, down 66
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:45ARST 4th & 5 at OU 48, down 73
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:32OU 4th & 2 at OU 9, up 73
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:41OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:50OU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:31OU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:21OU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:33OU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:46OU Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:29OU Touchdown, up 58 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:45OU Touchdown, up 65 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:43OU Touchdown, up 72 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:1499% → 98%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
98.5%
Tawee Walker run for 5 yds to the OU 35Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
98.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 3 yds to the OU 38Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
98.5%
Tawee Walker run for 7 yds to the OU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+45
98.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 45 yds to the ARST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 10 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.4%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 4 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.4%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+82
98.4%
William Przystup punt for 53 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for 82 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:562% → 2%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
98.4%
J.T. Shrout run for 10 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST down Oklahoma Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
50
-1
98.4%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 49Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
98.3%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
98.4%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
98.4%
William Przystup punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:2198% → 99%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
98.3%
Jalil Farooq run for 10 yds to the OU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 21 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 11 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
98.3%
Marcus Major run for 6 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+8
98.3%
Marcus Major run for 8 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-12
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 3 yds to the ARST 21 Oklahoma Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the ARST 36Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 22
OPP 36
+18
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 18 yds to the ARST 18Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+14
98.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 14 yds to the ARST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+2
98.3%
Major, Marcus rush for no gain to the ARST4, PENALTY ARST substitution infraction 2 yards to the ARST2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.5%
Marcus Major run for 2 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
98.5%
Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Offside (2 Yards) to the ARST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:362% → 2%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.4%
Brian Snead run for 1 yd to the ARST 26Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+21
98.4%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Tennel Bryant for 6 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST down Oklahoma Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+28
98.4%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Corey Rucker for 28 yds to the OU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.3%
J.T. Shrout pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
98.3%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the OU 25Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-2
98.3%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 27Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
98.4%
Dominic Zvada 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 4:1398% → 99%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
98.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 5 yds to the OU 32Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
98.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 4 yds to the OU 36Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
98.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the OU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for no gain to the OU 39Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
98.4%
Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
98.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 6 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-4
98.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 44Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+13
98.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 13 yds to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
98.4%
Tawee Walker run for 11 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
98.4%
Tawee Walker run for 4 yds to the ARST 16Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
98.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the ARST 13Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+6
98.4%
Jovantae Barnes run for 6 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 7 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+2
98.9%
Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Offside (2 Yards) to the ARST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:521% → 1%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.1%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for a loss of 6 yards to the ARST 19Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
99.2%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:33
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+8
99.2%
William Przystup punt for 59 yds , Gavin Freeman returns for 8 yds to the OU 30 Gavin Freeman fumbled, recovered by OU Gavin FreemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5399% → 99%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 5 yds to the OU 35Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
99.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 6 yds to the OU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
99.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 16 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.2%
Tawee Walker run for 9 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+33
99.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jayden Gibson for 33 yds to the ARST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+47
99.4%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 47 yds to the OU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.3%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the OU 26Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+5
99.3%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Adam Jones for 5 yds to the OU 21Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
99.3%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 3
OPP 21
-5
98.9%
Arkansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OU 26Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
99.1%
Dominic Zvada 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
98.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 16 yds to the OU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+52
98.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Nic Anderson for 52 yds to the ARST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.1%
Marcus Major run for 1 yd to the ARST 5Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 0
OPP 5
-10
99.1%
Oklahoma Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ARST 15Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+10
99.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for 10 yds to the ARST 5Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 5 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:481% → 0%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
99.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
99.6%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 1 yd to the ARST 34Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.6%
William Przystup punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Gavin Freeman at the OU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12FG
14 plays · 82 yds · 5:44100% → 100%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
99.5%
Marcus Major run for 1 yd to the OU 16Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+28
99.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Blake Smith for 28 yds to the OU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
99.6%
Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ARST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
99.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 45Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 14
OPP 45
-5
99.6%
Oklahoma Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 19
50
+11
99.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 11 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+16
99.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 16 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 4 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+10
99.7%
Major, Marcus rush for loss of 2 yards to the ARST21, PENALTY ARST personal foul 10 yards to the ARST9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q2 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
99.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 1 yd to the ARST 8Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the ARST 6Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the ARST 3Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
99.7%
Zach Schmit 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Brian Snead run for 3 yds to the ARST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 26Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 27Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
William Przystup punt for 38 yds , LV Bunkley-Shelton returns for no gain to the OU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.7%
Marcus Major run for 4 yds to the OU 39Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
99.8%
Marcus Major run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 38Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+5
99.8%
Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the OU 43Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+9
99.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 9 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.8%
Marcus Major run for 2 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
99.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 6 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+8
99.8%
Marcus Major run for 8 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
99.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 9 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+16
99.8%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 16 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
99.8%
Tawee Walker run for 6 yds to the ARST 1Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+2
99.8%
Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Offside (2 Yards) to the ARST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Adam Jones for 14 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 15 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.9%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the OU 45Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+7
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Brian Snead for 7 yds to the OU 38Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 2 yds to the OU 40Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+26
99.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Kade McIntyre for 26 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
99.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 13 yds to the ARST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jayden Gibson for 21 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Tennel Bryant for 7 yds Tennel Bryant fumbled, recovered by OU Kani WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
99.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 11 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 4 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+8
99.9%
Daylan Smothers run for 8 yds to the ARST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
99.9%
Daylan Smothers run for 4 yds to the ARST 7Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 7 yds for a TD (Gavin Marshall KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the ARST 25Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
99.9%
Arkansas State Penalty, Illegal Block (-12 Yards) to the ARST 13Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+20
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Tennel Bryant for 20 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
William Przystup punt for 34 yds, downed at the OU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 7:02100% → 100%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
99.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 13 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.9%
Daylan Smothers run for a loss of 2 yards to the OU 44Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+5
99.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 5 yds to the OU 49Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+11
99.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 11 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.9%
Daylan Smothers run for 1 yd to the ARST 39Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-6
99.9%
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for a loss of 6 yards to the ARST 45Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+15
99.9%
Daylan Smothers run for no gain to the ARST 45 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ARST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.9%
Daylan Smothers run for 3 yds to the ARST 27Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
99.9%
Jackson Arnold run for 6 yds to the ARST 21Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+9
99.9%
Kalib Hicks run for 9 yds to the ARST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
100.0%
Arkansas State Penalty, Face Mask (6 yards) (6 Yards) to the ARST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
100.0%
Kalib Hicks run for 6 yds for a TD (Gavin Marshall KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:450% → 0%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
100.0%
Zak Wallace run for 9 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
100.0%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
100.0%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 35Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+12
100.0%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 12 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
100.0%
Cedric Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 46Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-2
100.0%
Jaxon Dailey sacked by Ethan Downs for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 44Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+8
100.0%
Jaxon Dailey run for 8 yds to the OU 48Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
100.0%
William Przystup punt for 47 yds, downed at the OU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
100.0%
Daylan Smothers run for 2 yds to the OU 3Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
100.0%
Davis Beville run for 2 yds to the OU 5Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+5
100.0%
Arkansas State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the OU 10Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 1
OWN 10
-1
100.0%
Kalib Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the OU 9Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 2
OWN 9
0
100.0%
Josh Plaster punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
100.0%
Cedric Hawkins run for 3 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Cedric Hawkins run for no gain to the ARST 44Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+5
100.0%
Oklahoma Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ARST 49Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
100.0%
Jaxon Dailey run for 5 yds to the OU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
100.0%
Cedric Hawkins run for 1 yd to the OU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:31
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 7 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q2 8:33
Dillon Gabriel run for 5 yds for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
-0.5
TD · Q2 12:21
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Zach Schmit KICK)
-0.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com