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MEM

Memphis 37 at Arkansas State 3

ARST
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:38 · William Przystup punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Pregame prior−18.8Home team on offense−49.7Score differential−33.4Garbage-time factor−14.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:53: Seth Morgan 47 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +1.7 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:34: DJ Bell 36 Yd Interception Return (Seth Morgan Kick) — MEM win probability +2.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:34: Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 52 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — MEM win probability +2.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:34: Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 26 — ARST win probability +2.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:51: Seth Henigan run for 7 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — MEM win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
  1. Q1 13:40MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:26ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:27MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 14, tied
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:53MEM 4th & 5 at ARST 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:13MEM 4th & 11 at ARST 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:25ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:25MEM 4th & 3 at ARST 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    82.7%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:12ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:51ARST 4th & 8 at MEM 37, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:22ARST 4th & 27 at ARST 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−1.0
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:34MEM 4th & 1 at ARST 10, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.9
    88% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−3.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:30ARST 4th & 1 at MEM 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:03MEM 4th & 3 at ARST 41, up 28
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:38ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:09MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 20, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:15ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:07MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 44, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:39ARST 4th & 6 at MEM 14, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:32MEM 4th & 3 at midfield, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:00MEM 4th & 3 at ARST 17, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 8:20MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:34MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:34MEM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:51MEM Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1594% → 94%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
6.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 5 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-1
6.1%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 28Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
6.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
6.5%
Reid Bauer punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:147% → 7%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
6.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
6.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the ARST 43Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
6.5%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
6.9%
William Przystup punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5993% → 93%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
6.9%
Blake Watson run for 7 yds to the MEM 14Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 3
OWN 14
0
6.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
6.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
7.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
7.4%
J.T. Shrout pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:2793% → 91%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
7.3%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the MEM 20Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+8
7.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 8 yds to the MEM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
7.3%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the MEM 33Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
7.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 3 yds to the MEM 36Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+2
7.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 2 yds to the MEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
7.3%
Blake Watson run for 6 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
7.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 3 yds to the MEM 47Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
7.2%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the MEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
7.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 3 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Melique Straker) to the ARST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
7.2%
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
7.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+1
7.3%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the ARST 29Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
8.9%
Seth Morgan 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 60 yds · 2:409% → 11%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
8.9%
Brian Snead run for 5 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+16
9.0%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Corey Rucker for 16 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
9.2%
Wyatt Begeal pass complete to J.T. Shrout for 24 yds to the MEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
9.4%
Zak Wallace run for 11 yds to the MEM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+7
10.6%
Brian Snead run for 7 yds to the MEM 12 Brian Snead fumbled, recovered by MEM Simeon BlairSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:5590% → 89%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+45
10.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 45 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
9.6%
Sutton Smith run for no gain to the ARST 43Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
9.6%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+15
9.7%
HENIGAN, Seth pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BLANKUMSEE, DeMeer thrown to the ASU10. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on SMITH, Eddie enforced 15 yards to the ASU23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
9.4%
Jevyon Ducker run for no gain to the ARST 23Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-4
9.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
10.2%
Sutton Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
10.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
10.6%
Seth Henigan sacked by Tim Hardiman and Thurman Geathers for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 11Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
11.3%
Seth Morgan 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:4812% → 11%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
11.5%
J.T. Shrout run for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 15Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
11.4%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
11.2%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
11.4%
William Przystup punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
9 plays · 44 yds · 5:0589% → 90%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
11.1%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+7
11.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 7 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 1
OPP 35
-2
11.0%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 37Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+8
11.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 8 yds to the ARST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
10.8%
Seth Henigan sacked by Keyron Crawford for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 33Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+24
11.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 24 yds to the ARST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
10.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 7 yds to the ARST 2Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
10.8%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 4Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
9.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4110% → 8%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
9.9%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 25Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
9.9%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-36
7.6%
DJ Bell 36 Yd Interception Return (Seth Morgan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:168% → 9%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
7.7%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
7.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 26Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+7
7.1%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 7 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
7.7%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
7.6%
J.T. Shrout run for no gain to the ARST 33Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-2
7.5%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Zak Wallace for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
8.5%
William Przystup punt for 41 yds, downed at the MEM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:3894% → 96%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
6.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 9 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+5
6.5%
Blake Watson run for 5 yds to the MEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
6.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 6 yds to the MEM 48Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+52
4.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 52 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 3:307% → 7%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
6.8%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 26Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
6.7%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 11 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
7.0%
Zak Wallace run for 6 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
6.0%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
7.4%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Zak Wallace for 1 yd to the ARST 48Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+6
7.3%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+7
5.8%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 7 yds to the MEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
6.1%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Reagan Ealy for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 40Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+3
6.1%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 3 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
6.0%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+8
5.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 8 yds to the MEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
7.4%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 12 yds to the MEM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
7.0%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+34
7.3%
Dominic Zvada 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · -7 yds · 1:345% → 5%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
5.4%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 8Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 11
OWN 8
0
5.3%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+11
5.3%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 11 yds to the ARST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
5.5%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
5.5%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-17
5.5%
J.T. Shrout sacked by Jarra Anderson for a loss of 17 yards to the ARST 2Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 27
OWN 2
0
5.4%
William Przystup punt for 52 yds, downed at the MEM 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:3196% → 99%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
3.7%
Blake Watson run for 8 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+13
3.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 13 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
3.5%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 36Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+4
3.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 4 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+13
3.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 13 yds to the ARST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
2.9%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the ARST 16Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
2.9%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the ARST 12Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
3.1%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the ARST 10Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+3
3.4%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
1.0%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:211% → 1%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
0.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 19 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.6%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+17
0.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 17 yds to the MEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
0.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the MEM 33Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 4
OPP 33
-1
0.6%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 34Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+4
0.6%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 4 yds to the MEM 30Similar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
0.5%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the MEM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:2799% → 99%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
1.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 22 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
0.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 4 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-1
0.9%
Jevyon Ducker run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 45Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+4
1.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 4 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
0.9%
Reid Bauer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
0.4%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 10Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+8
0.3%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 8 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
0.4%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 18Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+11
0.4%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 11 yds to the ARST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
0.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
0.3%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
0.3%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
0.2%
William Przystup punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2999% → 99%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
1.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
1.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
1.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
0.3%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-11
0.2%
Jaxon Dailey sacked by Derick Hunter Jr. and Andres Fox for a loss of 11 yards to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 31
+3
0.2%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 3 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
0.2%
William Przystup punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
0.4%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
0.4%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
0.4%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the MEM 44Similar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
0.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 72 yds · 3:280% → 0%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
0.1%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
0.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+15
0.1%
Memphis Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Malik Feaster) to the MEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
0.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+15
0.1%
DAILEY, Jaxon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for RUCKER, Corey thrown to the MEM20. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on BARNETT, Julian enforced 15 yards to the MEM29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
0.2%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the MEM 24Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
0.1%
Jaxon Dailey run for 6 yds to the MEM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.1%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
0.1%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 4 yds to the MEM 14Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
0.1%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 6
OPP 14
0
0.1%
Jaxon Dailey pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 5:07100% → 100%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
0.2%
Blake Watson run for 13 yds to the MEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
0.2%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the MEM 30Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
0.2%
Sutton Smith run for no gain to the MEM 30Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+13
0.2%
Jevyon Ducker run for 13 yds to the MEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the MEM 43Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
0.2%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the MEM 45Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+5
0.2%
Blake Watson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 3
50
0
0.1%
Reid Bauer punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
0.0%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 19Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-6
0.0%
Jaxon Dailey sacked by Derick Hunter Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the ARST 13Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+11
0.0%
Jaxon Dailey pass complete to Zak Wallace for 11 yds Zak Wallace fumbled, recovered by MEM An'Darius CoffeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
0.1%
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 9 yds to the ARST 15Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 1
OPP 15
-10
0.1%
CARTER, Tevin pass to the right complete for 15 yards to THOMAS, Destun caught at the ASU0 and advanced to the ASU0, TOUCHDOWN MEM, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:32 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MEM Holding on MCCLAIN, Terrance enforced 10 yards from the ASU15 to the ASU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+1
0.1%
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 1 yd to the ARST 24Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+7
0.1%
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 7 yds to the ARST 17Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+17
0.1%
Ke'Travion Hargrove run for 17 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 3:34
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 26
+2.6
TD · Q3 8:51
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
-2.4
TD · Q2 7:34
DJ Bell 36 Yd Interception Return (Seth Morgan Kick)
-2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com