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USM

Southern Miss 37 at Arkansas State 44

ARST
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+20.1ARST 76.0%Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 34 - HOME 37 · Q4 3:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:50 · Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Pregame prior−1.4Home team on offense+13.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Garbage-time factor+5.3Score differential+1.1Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:46: Courtney Jackson 60 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Dominic Zvada Kick) — ARST win probability +12.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:47: Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +20.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:00: Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 22 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +23.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 3:50: Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +20.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:28: Jaylen Raynor run for 62 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +13.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q2 14:51ARST 4th & 3 at USM 19, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−3.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:13ARST 4th & 7 at USM 36, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:23USM 4th & 6 at ARST 6, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−7.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:00ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:23USM 4th & 3 at ARST 49, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:47USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.1%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:00ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−3.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:10USM 4th & 8 at ARST 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−9.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:37ARST 4th & 25 at ARST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−7.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:04ARST 4th & 3 at USM 49, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:50USM 4th & 7 at USM 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−4.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:50ARST 4th & 4 at USM 4, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%−2.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−30.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:42USM 4th & 13 at USM 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:16USM 4th & 2 at ARST 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−1.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:10USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:03ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:40ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:06USM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:46ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:47ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:28USM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:00USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:28ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 5:4272% → 72%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
28.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 13 yds to the USM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
28.5%
Billy Wiles run for 3 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
28.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
28.5%
run for 3 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
28.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
28.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+16
28.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 16 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
28.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 10 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
28.5%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-4
30.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 31Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+24
30.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 24 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
30.0%
WILES, Billy pass up the middle incomplete intended for CASTON, Jakarius broken up by JOHNSON, Samy at the ASU0. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Samy enforced 5 yards to the ASU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.5%
Frank Gore Jr. 2 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 3:0129% → 34%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
28.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 14 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
29.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
29.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
29.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
50
+4
29.5%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the USM 46Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+13
29.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 13 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
33.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 33 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3INT
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:5568% → 67%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-10
32.1%
Billy Wiles sacked by Tim Hardiman for a loss of 10 yards to the USM 6Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 20
OWN 6
0
32.8%
Billy Wiles pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:2234% → 39%
Q1 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
34.2%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the USM 6Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
34.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the USM 5Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
38.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
37.4%
Chandler Pittman run for 2 yds to the USM 24Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+8
37.4%
Antavious Willis run for 18 yds to the USM 42 Southern Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brandon Hayes) to the USM 23Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+1
37.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 1 yd to the USM 24Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+5
37.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 5 yds to the USM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2145% → 49%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
45.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+4
45.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the USM 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
44.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+36
48.7%
Dominic Zvada 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:4559% → 63%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
41.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
50
+7
40.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
39.9%
run for no gain to the ARST 43Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+15
40.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 15 yds to the ARST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
39.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
39.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for no gain to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+28
37.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 28 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5343% → 45%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
43.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
43.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
42.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+53
45.1%
Dominic Zvada 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:4156% → 58%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
43.6%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
43.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 10 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
42.5%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
43.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 9 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+29
42.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 29 yds to the ARST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
41.2%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the ARST 7Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
41.2%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
42.2%
Billy Wiles run for 1 yd to the ARST 6Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
41.6%
Andrew Stein 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 4:1546% → 47%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
45.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
45.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+7
45.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 7 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
47.4%
Zak Wallace run for 6 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+5
47.7%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
48.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
48.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-10
47.1%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Markel McLaurin and Josh Ratcliff for a loss of 10 yards to the ARST 46Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 17
OWN 46
0
46.8%
William Przystup punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
49.2%
Billy Wiles pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:0951% → 53%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
51.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
52.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
52.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+16
51.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 16 yds to the USM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
52.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
52.5%
Southern Miss Penalty, Offsides (Jalil Clemons) to the USM 23Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
53.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
50.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the USM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
1 play · 60 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
62.3%
Courtney Jackson 60 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Dominic Zvada Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:1743% → 39%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.5%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
58.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 6 yds to the USM 36Similar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+8
57.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 8 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
56.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 1 yd to the USM 45Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
56.4%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Antavious Willis for 6 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
55.6%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
61.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 2:3663% → 85%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+29
62.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 29 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
64.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 38Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+5
63.2%
Southern Miss Penalty, Delay Of Game (Hayes Maples) to the ARST 43Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+10
64.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 10 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
64.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 1 yd to the USM 46Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+38
64.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 38 yds to the USM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:1921% → 34%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
77.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
77.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 34Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
78.1%
run for 2 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
77.4%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 5 yds to the USM 41Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+59
65.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 59 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2273% → 73%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
73.4%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 15Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+1
73.8%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 16Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 11
OWN 16
0
72.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
73.4%
William Przystup punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:5032% → 38%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
68.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 38Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+35
68.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 35 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
63.5%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
64.3%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+2
66.0%
Billy Wiles run for 2 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
62.0%
Andrew Stein 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 3:3370% → 73%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.7%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 26Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
69.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 3 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
68.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 7 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
70.9%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jalil Clemons for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+5
75.0%
Courtney Jackson run for 5 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-13
74.3%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Josh Carr Jr. for a loss of 13 yards to the ARST 21Similar
Q4 14:37
4TH & 25
OWN 21
0
73.3%
William Przystup punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:3736% → 63%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
50
+28
63.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 28 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
60.6%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
37.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 22 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:5047% → 51%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
47.2%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Ja'Len Sims for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 17Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+4
46.9%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 21Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+13
44.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 13 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
48.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
51.6%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 42Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+2
49.6%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
51.6%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
52.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+3
50.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 3 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
50.9%
William Przystup punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1454% → 49%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
46.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
47.1%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+1
48.7%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 1 yd to the USM 14Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
50.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 4:0055% → 76%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
55.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 37 yds to the USM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
58.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
58.1%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the USM 10Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+5
55.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the USM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
58.1%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 6Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
58.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
56.0%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the USM 4Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
76.0%
Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0836% → 29%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
63.6%
WILES, Billy pass deep to the left complete for 37 yards to MIMS, Tiaquelin caught at the ASU37 and advanced to the ASU38 (THOMAS, Trevian). PENALTY USM Holding on RAMSEY, Bryce enforced 10 yards from the USM25 to the USM15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
64.0%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
64.7%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+7
66.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 7 yds to the USM 22Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
71.1%
Bryce Lofton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:1085% → 98%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
84.5%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+62
97.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 62 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:116% → 19%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
94.0%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 8 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+6
93.8%
Billy Wiles run for 6 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
93.8%
Billy Wiles run for 5 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
93.1%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 3 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
93.6%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+3
94.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the ARST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
93.4%
Billy Wiles run for 5 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+16
92.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 16 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
92.3%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+37
81.1%
Andrew Stein 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.7%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ASU at USM47 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:00
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 22 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)
-23.3
TD · Q3 9:47
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+20.2
FG · Q4 3:50
Dominic Zvada 21 yd FG GOOD
+20.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com