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ARST

Arkansas State 3 at Troy 37

TROY
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:25 · William Przystup punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior+26.3Home team on offense+6.8Score differential+2.1Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:50: Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — ARST win probability +0.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:11: Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +3.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 3:47: Scott Taylor Renfroe 27 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +3.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Scott Taylor Renfroe 28 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +3.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:46: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 64 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 8:37ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:48TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:02ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:25ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:33TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:59ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.2%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:47TROY 4th & 10 at ARST 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:51ARST 4th & 9 at TROY 36, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00TROY 4th & 1 at ARST 11, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.4%−1.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−5.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:18ARST 4th & 2 at TROY 20, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−3.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:59TROY 4th & 5 at ARST 22, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:38ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 49, down 23
    Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:11TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 24, up 23
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:46ARST 4th & 6 at TROY 47, down 23
    Close callPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:46ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 39, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:13ARST 4th & 10 at TROY 40, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:51ARST 4th & 26 at TROY 28, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 44, up 34
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:50TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:11TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:46TROY Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:13TROY Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
86.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
86.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
86.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 1 yd to the TROY 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+12
86.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 12 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
86.4%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+5
86.4%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the ARST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
86.4%
Troy Penalty, False Start (Derrick Graham) to the ARST 38Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+20
86.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 20 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
86.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the ARST 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+12
86.4%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete intended for STOUDEMIRE, Deshon thrown to the AST6. PENALTY AST Pass Interference on HODGES, Justin enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the AST5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
86.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the ARST 1Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1314% → 14%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
85.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 27Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
85.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
85.9%
William Przystup punt for 37 yds, downed at the TROY 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4986% → 86%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
85.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
85.8%
Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the TROY 40Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
85.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
85.5%
Robert Cole punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:4614% → 14%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
85.6%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 20Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+5
85.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 5 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+9
85.6%
Zak Wallace run for 9 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
85.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 5 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-7
85.3%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 32Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-5
85.8%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 27Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 17
OWN 27
0
85.6%
William Przystup punt for 48 yds , Jabre Barber returns for no gain Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (Daniel King) to the TROY 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · -15 yds · 2:5885% → 85%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
85.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 24Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
85.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+10
85.1%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the right complete for 3 yards to BARBER, Jabre caught at the TRO27 and advanced to the TRO30 (MOTLEY, Dane). PENALTY AST Holding on PARKS, Justin enforced 10 yards from the TRO27 to the TRO37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
85.5%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
85.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 5 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-54
85.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for a loss of 39 yards Deshon Stoudemire fumbled, recovered by ARST Trevian Thomas Troy Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Daniel King) to the ARST 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:5115% → 16%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
84.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the ARST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
84.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 36Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
84.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
83.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
84.0%
William Przystup punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:0285% → 89%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+33
84.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 33 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
85.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+16
85.3%
Gunnar Watson run for 16 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
85.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Asa Martin for 20 yds to the ARST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
85.4%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the ARST 1Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4613% → 12%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 24Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
87.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 26Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
87.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 5 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
87.6%
William Przystup punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:5289% → 88%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
88.7%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 6 yards to the TROY 25Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 16
OWN 25
-5
88.5%
Troy Penalty, False Start (Clayton Ollendieck) to the TROY 20Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 21
OWN 20
0
88.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 21
OWN 20
+15
88.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 15 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 6
OWN 35
-5
88.2%
COLE, Robert punt 52 yards to the AST13, JACKSON, Courtney returned -1 yard to the AST12 (LEE, Phillip), clock 08:39. PENALTY Before the snap, TRO Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the TRO35 to the TRO30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
88.0%
Robert Cole punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3412% → 12%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
87.6%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
87.5%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
87.2%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 38Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 1
OWN 38
-1
87.9%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:1289% → 92%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
89.1%
Damien Taylor run for 9 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 1
OPP 28
-4
89.1%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+24
88.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 24 yds to the ARST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
89.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the ARST 5Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
89.1%
VIDAL, Kimani rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the AST4 (THOMAS, Trevian;JONES, Leon). PENALTY TRO Holding on OLLENDIECK, Clayton enforced 10 yards from the AST5 to the AST15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
89.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+5
88.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds to the ARST 10Similar
Q2 3:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
91.7%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:569% → 9%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
90.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
90.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+15
90.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 15 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
89.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
89.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-3
89.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 36Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
90.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 0:4692% → 96%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
91.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-10
92.2%
Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TROY 44Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+36
92.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 36 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
92.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the ARST 19Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
92.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+8
91.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Asa Martin for 8 yds to the ARST 11Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+28
95.5%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:345% → 5%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
95.4%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
95.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+10
95.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 10 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
95.0%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the TROY 26Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+1
95.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 1 yd to the TROY 25Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+5
95.4%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the TROY 20Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+1
95.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the TROY 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:1997% → 97%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
97.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 23Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+27
97.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
50
+11
96.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
96.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+10
96.9%
Damien Taylor run for 10 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
97.0%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the ARST 21Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-1
97.0%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 22Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
96.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
97.0%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:143% → 3%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
97.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+6
97.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 6 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
97.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
97.3%
William Przystup punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:2797% → 99%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
97.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 10Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+7
98.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the TROY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
98.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 18Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+1
98.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 19Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+5
98.3%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the TROY 24Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
98.6%
Robert Cole punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:252% → 2%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
97.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 17 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
97.9%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
97.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
97.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
98.2%
William Przystup punt for 42 yds, downed at the TROY 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 4:0099% → 100%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
98.9%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 7Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
98.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+14
98.8%
Damien Taylor run for 14 yds to the TROY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.0%
Damien Taylor run for 8 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+3
99.0%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.0%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the TROY 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TROY 36Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+64
99.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 64 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 5 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ARST 38Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 5 yards to the ARST 33Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+6
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 6 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
99.9%
William Przystup punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
99.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+69
99.9%
Kimani Vidal 69 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 4:220% → 0%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the ARST 25Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
100.0%
Brian Snead run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 22Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+38
100.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 38 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+16
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 16 yds to the TROY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+12
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 12 yds to the TROY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
99.9%
Brian Snead run for 1 yd to the TROY 11Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-11
99.9%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Julian Peterson for a loss of 11 yards to the TROY 22Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 20
OPP 22
-6
100.0%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Eric Shaw for a loss of 6 yards to the TROY 28Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 26
OPP 28
+45
99.9%
Dominic Zvada 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
99.9%
Jarris Williams run for 12 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Jarris Williams run for 3 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-2
99.9%
Goose Crowder run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 41Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Jarris Williams run for 3 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+1
100.0%
Jarris Williams run for 1 yd to the TROY 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Scott Taylor Renfroe 28 yd FG GOOD
+3.8
TD · Q2 12:11
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+3.6
FG · Q2 3:47
Scott Taylor Renfroe 27 yd FG GOOD
+3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com