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ARST

Arkansas State 21 at Marshall 35

MRSH
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:45 · William Przystup punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Home team on offense+27.4Score differential+19.6Garbage-time factor+6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.3Blowout margin+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:28: Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 15 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +8.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q1 15:00: Cam Fancher pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 8 yds to the MRSH 45 — ARST win probability +14.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: 1st down).
  3. TD · Q2 11:31: Cam Fancher run for 7 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +10.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:15: Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 21 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +10.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:19: Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +8.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 10:53MRSH 4th & 12 at ARST 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:37ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:03ARST 4th & 9 at MRSH 41, down 14
    Close callPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:31MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:38ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.2%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:18ARST 4th & 8 at MRSH 46, down 28
    Close callPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:19MRSH 4th & 17 at ARST 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:33ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:10ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:00MRSH 4th & 10 at ARST 18, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:08ARST 4th & 9 at MRSH 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:50MRSH 4th & 12 at MRSH 14, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:39MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:45ARST 4th & 10 at MRSH 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:07MRSH 4th & 17 at MRSH 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:20ARST 4th & 4 at MRSH 13, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.4
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:04MRSH 4th & 4 at ARST 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 1:28MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:31MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:15MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:19ARST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:58MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:54ARST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:3556% → 65%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
55.6%
Cam Fancher run for 10 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
55.9%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds to the MRSH 39Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
56.2%
Rasheen Ali run for 6 yds to the MRSH 45Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
56.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the MRSH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
56.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the MRSH 49Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
56.3%
Ali,Rasheen rush middle (Hassler,Ethan;Straker,Melique).Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+9
55.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Talik Keaton for 9 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
56.4%
Ethan Payne run for 4 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+23
56.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 23 yds to the ARST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
65.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 15 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 4:0751% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
50.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 8 yds to the MRSH 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+4
50.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the MRSH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
50.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Rasheen AliSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
50.6%
pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+13
50.6%
Cam Fancher run for 13 yds to the ARST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
50.6%
pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-4
50.6%
Rasheen Ali run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARST 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 42
+2
50.6%
Cam Fancher run for 2 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
54.4%
John McConnell punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1646% → 44%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
54.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
54.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
54.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Josh MotenSimilar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+45
55.6%
William Przystup punt for 60 yds for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, personal foul (Brandon Greil) to the MRSH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:3256% → 58%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
55.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 27 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
56.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 9 yds to the ARST 34Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+25
56.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Sean Sallis for 25 yds to the ARST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
58.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 9 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 49 yds · 1:5843% → 41%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+30
57.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 30 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
56.9%
Cedric Hawkins run for 3 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+15
56.8%
Cedric Hawkins run for 15 yds to the MRSH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
56.6%
Cedric Hawkins run for 1 yd to the MRSH 41Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
56.6%
pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
56.8%
pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 9
OPP 41
+15
58.8%
William Przystup punt for 30 yds Arkansas State Penalty, kick catching interference (Melique Straker) to the MRSH 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6INT
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:2138% → 36%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
62.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
61.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 8 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
61.9%
for a 1ST down Marshall Penalty, Defensive holding (Isaiah Gibson Sr.) to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
61.6%
Cedric Hawkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the MRSH 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+29
63.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 29 yds to the MRSH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
61.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the MRSH 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+5
61.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the MRSH 12Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
63.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman, broken up by Micah AbrahamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4773% → 74%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+18
73.1%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds to the MRSH 12 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, personal foul (Melique Straker) to the MRSH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
73.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+1
73.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd to the MRSH 30Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-2
74.7%
Cam Fancher sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 28Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
74.1%
John McConnell punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8TD
4 plays · 99 yds · 1:3167% → 79%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+63
66.9%
Cam Fancher run for 63 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
68.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 8 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+21
68.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Mason Pierce for 21 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
79.0%
Cam Fancher run for 7 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5322% → 20%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
78.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 23Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
78.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 10 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
77.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 34Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-1
80.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 3:2383% → 93%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
82.7%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
82.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Ethan Payne for 4 yds to the ARST 25Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
82.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
82.7%
Rasheen Ali run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 23Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+2
82.7%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the ARST 21Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+21
92.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 21 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:576% → 6%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.9%
Cedric Hawkins run for 6 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
93.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 9 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
93.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 12 yds to the MRSH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
93.3%
pass incomplete to Reagan EalySimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
93.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
93.5%
pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
94.2%
William Przystup punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:125% → 15%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
94.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 7 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-6
94.3%
Jaylen Raynor sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the ARST 39 Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Yards) to the ARST 39Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+22
94.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 22 yds to the MRSH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
94.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Miller McCrumby for a 1ST down Marshall Penalty, Defensive holding (Micah Abraham) to the MRSH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
94.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 26 yds to the MRSH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:5590% → 90%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
90.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 18 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
90.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Talik Keaton for 25 yds to the ARST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
90.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 8 yds to the ARST 7Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 2
OPP 7
0
90.5%
pass incomplete to Darryle SimmonsSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-15
90.2%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Caleb McMillan, broken up by Samy Johnson Marshall Penalty, personal foul (Darryle Simmons) to the ARST 22Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+39
89.6%
Rece Verhoff 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:278% → 6%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
92.5%
Jaylen Raynor sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ARST 13Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+1
92.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the ARST 14Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+12
92.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 12 yds to the ARST 26Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 4
OWN 26
-5
92.6%
Arkansas State Penalty, false start (Mike Sharpe II) to the ARST 21Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
94.0%
William Przystup punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:3594% → 99%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+64
94.1%
Ethan Payne run for 64 yds to the ARST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.1%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:504% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
95.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman, broken up by Dyoni HillSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.1%
pass incomplete to Miller McCrumby Arkansas State Penalty, Offensive holding (Jalen Cunningham) to the ARST 28Similar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
97.5%
William Przystup punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17MISSED FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:1097% → 99%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.3%
pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
97.3%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+10
97.4%
Cam Fancher run for 10 yds to the MRSH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
97.4%
Ethan Payne run for 7 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, roughing passer (Thurman Geathers) to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
97.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 18 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
97.5%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the ARST 15Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
97.5%
Fancher,Cam rush right (Willekes,Charles;Crawford,Keyron).Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-3
97.5%
Ethan Payne run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 18Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
98.5%
Rece Verhoff 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:501% → 1%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.1%
Cedric Hawkins run for 3 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
99.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kevin Diaz for 14 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.0%
Cedric Hawkins run for 2 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+10
99.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 10 yds to the MRSH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Kevin Diaz, broken up by Stephen Dix Jr.Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the MRSH 45Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
99.0%
pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
99.4%
William Przystup punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 84 yds · 1:1899% → 96%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.4%
pass incomplete to Mason PierceSimilar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
99.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Ethan Payne for 1 yd to the MRSH 17Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-3
99.4%
Cam Fancher sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the MRSH 14Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 12
OWN 14
+60
95.9%
John McConnell punt for 46 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 60 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1196% → 97%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.3%
Ethan Payne run for 6 yds to the MRSH 31Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-8
96.4%
Cam Fancher sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the MRSH 23Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+6
96.2%
Cam Fancher run for 6 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+7
97.1%
John McConnell punt for 45 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 7 yds to the ARST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:543% → 2%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
97.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+15
97.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker for a 1ST down Marshall Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Ishmael Ibraheem) to the MRSH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.0%
pass incomplete to Ja'Quez CrossSimilar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
97.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez CrossSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
97.6%
pass incomplete to Courtney JacksonSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
97.7%
William Przystup punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:1999% → 99%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
99.3%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the MRSH 16Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+1
99.3%
Cam Fancher run for 1 yd to the MRSH 17Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 4
OWN 17
-2
99.3%
Cam Fancher run for a loss of 2 yards to the MRSH 15 Cam Fancher fumbled, recovered by ARST Keyron Crawford Fancher,Cam rush middle for loss of 2 yards to the MAR15, fumble by Fancher,Cam recovered by ASU Crawford,Keyron, Crawford,Keyron rush.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 8:3898% → 99%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
97.5%
Ethan Payne run for 7 yds to the MRSH 8Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 3
OWN 8
0
97.5%
Payne,Ethan rush middle (Martey,Nate;Bland,Micah).Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+7
97.5%
Ethan Payne run for 7 yds to the MRSH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
97.6%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the MRSH 20Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
97.6%
Ethan Payne run for 4 yds to the MRSH 24Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+3
97.6%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds to the MRSH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
97.6%
Ethan Payne run for 5 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
97.6%
Ethan Payne run for 2 yds to the MRSH 34Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+6
98.6%
Cam Fancher run for a loss of 9 yards to the MRSH 25 for a 1ST down Arkansas State Penalty, personal foul (Charles Willekes) to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
98.7%
Ethan Payne run for a loss of 5 yards to the MRSH 35Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-5
98.8%
Marshall Penalty, false start (Bryan Robinson) to the MRSH 30Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+4
98.8%
Ethan Payne run for 4 yds to the MRSH 34Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 16
OWN 34
-1
98.8%
Ethan Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 33Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 17
OWN 33
+6
98.9%
John McConnell punt for 44 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for 6 yds to the ARST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
99.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 8 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
99.2%
pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+40
99.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 40 yds to the MRSH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
99.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman for a 1ST down Marshall Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Micah Abraham) to the MRSH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-13
99.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 13 yards to the MRSH 29 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by MRSH Stephen Dix Jr. Raynor,Jaylen rush for loss of 13 yards to the MAR21, fumble by Raynor,Jaylen recovered by MAR Dix, Jr.,Stephen, Dix, Jr.,Stephen rush , fumble by Dix, Jr.,Stephen recovered by ASU Raynor,Jaylen. Raynor,Jaylen rush for loss of 13 yards to the MAR21, fumble by Raynor,Jaylen recovered by MAR Dix, Jr.,Stephen, Dix, Jr.,Stephen rush , fumble by Dix, Jr.,Stephen recovered by ASU Raynor,Jaylen. Stephen Dix Jr. fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor Raynor,Jaylen rush for loss of 13 yards to the MAR21, fumble by Raynor,Jaylen recovered by MAR Dix, Jr.,Stephen, Dix, Jr.,Stephen rush , fumble by Dix, Jr.,Stephen recovered by ASU Raynor,Jaylen.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman, broken up by Jalil Rivera-HarveySimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Micah AbrahamSimilar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+10
99.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 10 yds to the MRSH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
99.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 6 yds to the MRSH 13Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
99.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey Rucker, broken up by Micah AbrahamSimilar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
99.2%
pass incomplete to Courtney JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+2
99.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the MRSH 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:071% → 6%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
99.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman for a 1ST down Marshall Penalty, Defensive pass interference (AG McGhee) to the MRSH 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4998% → 98%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
97.6%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
97.6%
Ethan Payne run for 1 yd to the ARST 45Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+2
97.6%
Ethan Payne run for 2 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
98.0%
John McConnell punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28Uncategorized
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
96.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 9 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
95.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 3 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
95.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 13 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
95.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass intercepted for a 1ST down Marshall Penalty, roughing passer (Elijah Russell) to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incomplete to Corey RuckerSimilar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
95.4%
pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-9
95.5%
Jaylen Raynor sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the MRSH 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q1 15:00
Cam Fancher pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 8 yds to the MRSH 45
-14.4
TD · Q2 11:31
Cam Fancher run for 7 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q2 6:15
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 21 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com