SMU

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2284th
  Defense−0.0392nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.9%65th
  Defense35.7%94th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3792nd
  Defense+1.2743rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1464th
  Defense−0.0286th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3986th
  Defense+0.0694th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.7%61st
  Defense43.3%84th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.3%67th
  Defense22.2%99th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1962nd
  Defense2.8083rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.8%72nd
  Defense20.5%83rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.9%92nd
  Defense20.6%94th

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what SMU allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   LT
2. L
   OU
3. W
   PV
4. L
   TCU
5. W
   CLT
6. W
   ECU
7. W
   TEM
8. W
   TLSA
9. W
   RICE
10. W
    UNT
11. W
    MEM
12. W
    NAVY
13. W
    TULN
14. L
    BC

Bars above the line: better than expected for SMU.

Players, 2023

1. Preston StoneQB257 plays · +0.307 pts/play · 49th of 250 QBs
   1.48WAR0.92 to 2.08
2. Kevin JenningsQB114 plays · +0.133 pts/play · 163rd of 250 QBs
   0.28WAR0.01 to 0.57
3. LJ Johnson Jr.RB87 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 147th of 383 RBs
   0.19WAR0.13 to 0.24
4. Jaylan KnightonRB123 plays · +0.080 pts/play · 154th of 383 RBs
   0.18WAR0.07 to 0.28
5. Jake BaileyWR31 plays · +0.291 pts/play · 97th of 457 WRs
   0.17WAR0.07 to 0.26
6. RJ MarylandTE33 plays · +0.222 pts/play · 33rd of 212 TEs
   0.14WAR0.05 to 0.24
7. Ryan BujcevskiP28 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 44th of 103 punters
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.15
8. Collin RogersPK18 plays · +0.263 pts/play · 49th of 113 kickers
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.13

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares SMU's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  71471434th of 130Roster talent: 714, 34th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  16416471st of 130Recruiting: 164, 71st of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  42%42%85th of 128Returning production: 42%, 85th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +10.1+10.124th of 130SP+ rating: +10.1, 24th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than SMU's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.01 of the 0.06 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ECUQ2 1:16 4th & 1 at SMU 38, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
2. at RICEQ4 11:58 4th & 3 at SMU 41, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
3. at ECUQ3 0:37 4th & 4 at ECU 21, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
4. vs UNTQ2 10:29 4th & 3 at UNT 3, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
5. at TCUQ1 3:17 4th & 1 at SMU 11, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
6. vs LTQ2 8:26 4th & 2 at SMU 10, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
7. at RICEQ2 6:59 4th & 4 at RICE 24, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. at ECUQ2 9:23 4th & 3 at SMU 37, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

43rd of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up SMU's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   LT
2. L

   OU
3. W

   PV
4. L

   TCU
5. W

   CLT
6. W

   ECU
7. W

   TEM
8. W

   TLSA
9. W

   RICE
10. W

    UNT
11. W

    MEM
12. W

    NAVY
13. W

    TULN
14. L

    BC

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at SMU's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.41
• Possession & field position−0.06
• Clock+0.10
• Timeouts−0.04
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.90

Game by game

• LTW 38-14 vs LT90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +14
• OUL 11-28 at OU10% → 1%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −16
• PVW 69-0 vs PV99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• TCUL 17-34 at TCU32% → 2%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −31, Possession & field position −1
• CLTW 34-16 vs CLT95% → 99%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +9
• ECUW 31-10 at ECU80% → 100%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +28, Clock +2
• TEMW 55-0 at TEM91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +13
• TLSAW 69-10 vs TLSA92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +10
• RICEW 36-31 at RICE80% → 95%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +33, Clock +2
• UNTW 45-21 vs UNT90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +14
• MEMW 38-34 at MEM70% → 94%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +41, Clock +3
• NAVYW 59-14 vs NAVY91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +11
• TULNW 26-14 at TULN41% → 98%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +57, Clock +3
• BCL 14-23 at BC81% → 3%Before kickoff +31 · On the field −78: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts −3

Points of win probability, from SMU's side.

Closest call

HOU 16-38 SMU (2016) - SMU dropped to a 6.8% win probability before pulling it out.