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TLSA

Tulsa 10 at SMU 69

SMU
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Bill Jackson run for 8 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:46: Jaylan Knighton run for 11 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +1.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:26: Isaiah Nwokobia 25 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick) — SMU win probability +1.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 12:07: Collin Rogers 42 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +2.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 11:35: Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 62 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — TLSA win probability +1.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 7:34: Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:25TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:25SMU 4th & 6 at TLSA 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:44TLSA 4th & 15 at SMU 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:37TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 40, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:07SMU 4th & 5 at TLSA 25, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:41TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:18TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:11TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:07SMU 4th & 19 at SMU 13, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:10TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 33, down 49
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:53TLSA 4th & 10 at SMU 34, down 56
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:12TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 26, down 63
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:51SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 28, up 63
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:43SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 31, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:31TLSA 4th & 18 at TLSA 19, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:24SMU 4th & 4 at TLSA 4, up 56
    Close callKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:10SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:34SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:46SMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:26SMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:35SMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:34SMU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:37SMU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:21SMU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:50SMU Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:59TLSA Touchdown, down 57 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4592% → 92%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+74
92.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 74 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:418% → 8%
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
92.2%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the TLSA 21Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
92.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 6 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
92.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 5 yds to the TLSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
92.0%
Braylon Braxton run for 9 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-2
92.0%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 39Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
92.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 2 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
91.8%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the TLSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:5192% → 92%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
92.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the TLSA 40Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
91.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
91.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+33
91.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 33 yds to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
92.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 1Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:508% → 9%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
92.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Devan Williams for 15 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
92.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 1
50
+3
91.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
91.9%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Elijah Roberts for a loss of 7 yards to the TLSA 46Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+5
92.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Devan Williams for 5 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+37
92.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Devan Williams for 37 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
91.8%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+4
91.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 11
OPP 13
-4
91.9%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Isaiah Smith and Elijah Chatman for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 15
OPP 17
0
92.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 15
OPP 17
+35
91.0%
Chase Meyer 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:5291% → 93%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
91.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 4 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
91.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+12
91.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 12 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
91.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 8 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+20
91.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 20 yds to the TLSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
91.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the TLSA 20Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+9
91.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 9 yds to the TLSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 11 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6INT TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:147% → 5%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
93.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 19Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+3
93.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the TLSA 22Similar
Q1 0:26
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-25
94.6%
Isaiah Nwokobia 25 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:235% → 5%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.6%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
94.4%
BRAXTON, Braylon pass to the right incomplete intended for CHESTER, Carl thrown to the TUL37. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on DAVIS-ROBINSON, Jaelyn enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the TUL37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.4%
Bill Jackson run for no gain to the TLSA 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
94.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 3 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
94.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
94.7%
Angus Davies punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 1:3095% → 97%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
94.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 12 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
94.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+36
94.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 36 yds to the TLSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
94.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
94.7%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
94.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
97.1%
Collin Rogers 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9INT
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:223% → 3%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
97.5%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 23Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
97.5%
No Huddle- Shotgun Braylon Braxton pass intercepted by Davis-Robinson, Jaelyn at SMU38, End of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
96.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 62 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:542% → 2%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.0%
Braylon Braxton run for 7 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
97.8%
Braylon Braxton run for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 29Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
97.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
98.3%
Angus Davies punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0796% → 99%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
96.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
96.4%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+52
96.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Adam Moore for 52 yds to the TLSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
96.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+9
96.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 9 yds to the TLSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
96.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 14 yds to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.7%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:161% → 1%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
98.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 31Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
98.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.0%
Angus Davies punt for 42 yds, downed at the SMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:4199% → 99%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
98.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 17 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
98.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
98.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
98.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 17 yds to the TLSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.8%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-5
99.0%
STONE, Preston pass to the left complete for 12 yards to DANIELS, JR., Roderick caught at the TUL0 and advanced to the TUL0, TOUCHDOWN SMU, score nullified by penalty, clock 04:43 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY Before the snap, SMU Illegal Motion on DANIELS, JR., Roderick enforced 5 yards from the TUL12 to the TUL17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+17
99.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 17 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.3%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bill Jackson for 4 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Angus Davies punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 2:0499% → 99%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.2%
Kevin Jennings run for 1 yd to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-13
99.2%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Owen Ostroski for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 22
OWN 10
+3
99.2%
Kevin Jennings run for 3 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 19
OWN 13
0
99.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:071% → 0%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
99.5%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Ahmaad Moses for a loss of 7 yards to the TLSA 35Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+4
99.5%
Jordan Ford run for 4 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+2
99.6%
Jordan Ford run for 2 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
99.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
99.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.5%
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jake Bailey at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:49100% → 100%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.5%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+18
99.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Carter Campbell for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.5%
Camar Wheaton run for 5 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
99.5%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+9
99.5%
Kevin Jennings run for 9 yds to the TLSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
99.5%
Camar Wheaton run for no gain to the TLSA 34Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
99.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 11 yds to the TLSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
99.5%
Kevin Jennings run for 10 yds to the TLSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
99.5%
Velton Gardner run for 8 yds to the TLSA 5Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+4
99.5%
Velton Gardner run for 4 yds to the TLSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 9 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
99.8%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bill Jackson for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+10
99.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bill Jackson for 10 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Bill Jackson run for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
99.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Adam Moore for 7 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+4
99.8%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jamarion Carroll for 7 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+48
99.8%
Camar Wheaton run for 48 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Bill Jackson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-3
99.9%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Bryce McMorris for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 26Similar
Q3 2:12
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Angus Davies punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.8%
Velton Gardner run for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Velton Gardner run for no gain to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-3
99.9%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Vontroy Malone and Dorian Hopkins for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 40 yds, downed at the TLSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:520% → 0%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Carl Chester for 7 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Jordan Ford run for no gain to the TLSA 39Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+10
99.9%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Carl Chester for 10 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
99.9%
Cardell Williams run for 9 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Jordan Ford run for no gain to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+1
99.9%
Jordan Ford run for 1 yd to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-9
99.9%
Cardell Williams sacked by JaQwondis Burns for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 19
50
+21
100.0%
Cardell Williams run for 21 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
99.9%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 10 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
99.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+5
99.9%
QB Keeper WILLIAMS, Cardell rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the SMU12 (KILGORE, Alex). PENALTY SMU Offsides on ABIARA, David enforced 5 yards from the SMU14 to the SMU9 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 5 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Velton Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
99.9%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Adam Moore for 7 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Malachai Jones at the TLSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
100.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
100.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 3
OWN 34
-15
100.0%
Tulsa Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Personal Foul on LI'O MARKS, Tautai enforced (-15 Yards) to the TLSA 19Similar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 18
OWN 19
0
100.0%
Angus Davies punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jonathan McGill at the SMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 5:07100% → 100%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+25
99.9%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Camar Wheaton for 25 yds to the TLSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
99.9%
Camar Wheaton run for 7 yds to the TLSA 26Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+8
99.9%
Camar Wheaton run for 8 yds to the TLSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
99.9%
Velton Gardner run for 10 yds to the TLSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.9%
Zane Minors run for 3 yds to the TLSA 5Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
100.0%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the TLSA 4Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
100.0%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Markus Schumacher for no gain to the TLSA 4Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
100.0%
Collin Rogers 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Cardell Williams run for 5 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
100.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 10 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
100.0%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
100.0%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+8
100.0%
Bill Jackson run for 8 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 12:07
Collin Rogers 42 yd FG GOOD
+2.5
TD · Q2 7:34
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q1 1:46
Jaylan Knighton run for 11 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com