Try the model
NAVY

Navy 14 at SMU 59

SMU
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:40 · Ryan Bujcevski punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior+18.4Home team on offense+30.0Score differential+25.7Blowout margin+13.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.0Garbage-time factor+10.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:57: Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 15 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +0.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:26: Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 27 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +1.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:57: Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 26 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +2.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q1 0:56: Daba Fofana run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +2.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 14:12: Will Benton IV 0 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Rogers Kick) — SMU win probability +3.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 10:56NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:34NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:48NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:00NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:13NAVY 4th & 16 at NAVY 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:52NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 21, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:59SMU 4th & 1 at NAVY 19, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:41SMU 4th & 2 at NAVY 13, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:56NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:24NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 25, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:40SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 39, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:53NAVY 4th & 9 at SMU 33, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:42SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 38, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:46NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 16, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:03SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 40, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:55NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 27, down 45
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:36SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 41, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:36NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 24, down 45
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:13SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 27, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:13NAVY 4th & 1 at SMU 34, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:09SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:57SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:26SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:57SMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:56NAVY Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 14:12SMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 9:32SMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 4:59SMU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 4:10NAVY Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 9:31SMU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:4591% → 91%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
91.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 22 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+35
91.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 35 yds to the NAVY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
91.2%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the NAVY 10Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
90.9%
Camar Wheaton run for 8 yds to the NAVY 1Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:069% → 9%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
91.0%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 25Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+7
91.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 7 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+2
91.0%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
90.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:5991% → 91%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+47
90.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 47 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
90.9%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the NAVY 29Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+15
90.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 15 yds to the NAVY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
90.9%
Camar Wheaton run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 15Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
91.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 15 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:189% → 9%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
91.1%
Eli Heidenreich run for 10 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
91.1%
Eli Heidenreich run for 2 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
91.1%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
91.1%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
91.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 61 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:0891% → 93%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
91.4%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
91.4%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+35
91.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 35 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
91.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 9 yds to the NAVY 39Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+5
91.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 5 yds to the NAVY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
91.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 7 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
91.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+27
92.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 27 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:307% → 7%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
92.9%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 25Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-1
92.9%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 24Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
92.9%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
93.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:5193% → 96%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+37
92.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 37 yds to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
93.2%
Preston Stone run for 2 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
93.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 7 yds to the NAVY 21Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-5
93.1%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 26Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+26
95.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 26 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:494% → 4%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
96.1%
Eli Heidenreich run for 4 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
95.9%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
95.9%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
96.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , returns for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3793% → 97%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
93.4%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
93.6%
Camar Wheaton run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+9
93.4%
Camar Wheaton run for 9 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
96.6%
Will Benton IV 0 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:593% → 3%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
96.8%
Xavier Arline run for a loss of 6 yards to the NAVY 19Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
96.9%
Braxton Woodson run for no gain to the NAVY 19Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+5
96.9%
Braxton Woodson run for 5 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-5
96.8%
Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (Xavier Arline) to the NAVY 19Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
97.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:4197% → 97%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
97.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Camar Wheaton for 6 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
97.2%
Camar Wheaton run for no gain to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+13
97.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 13 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.2%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
97.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 11 yds to the NAVY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
97.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the NAVY 23Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
97.2%
STONE, Preston pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SMITH, Key'Shawn thrown to the NAV0. PENALTY NAV Pass Interference on DUHART, Andrew enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the NAV9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
97.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 8 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:402% → 2%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.0%
Amin Hassan run for 1 yd to the NAVY 26Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
98.1%
Xavier Arline sacked by Cameron Robertson for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 21Similar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
98.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:5398% → 99%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.1%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
98.1%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+28
98.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 28 yds to the NAVY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
98.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the NAVY 22Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-11
98.1%
Preston Stone sacked by Eavan Gibbons for a loss of 11 yards to the NAVY 33Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+14
98.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 14 yds to the NAVY 19Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+19
98.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 19 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:491% → 1%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.8%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+69
98.9%
Braxton Woodson run for 69 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 3:2999% → 99%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
98.5%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 12 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
98.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+9
98.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 9 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
98.6%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+15
98.6%
JENNINGS, Kevin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BRINSON, Romello thrown to the NAV7. PENALTY NAV Pass Interference on DUHART, Andrew enforced 15 yards to the NAV34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
98.6%
Velton Gardner run for 13 yds to the NAVY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
98.6%
Velton Gardner run for 7 yds to the NAVY 14Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 3
OPP 14
-1
98.6%
Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 15Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+2
99.1%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the NAVY 13Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
99.3%
Collin Rogers 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17END OF HALF
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:281% → 1%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
99.3%
Eli Heidenreich run for 12 yds to the NAVY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.4%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Alex Tecza for 7 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
99.3%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Alex Tecza for 11 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
99.4%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Alex Tecza for 16 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.4%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
99.4%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18INT TD
15 plays · 55 yds · 5:251% → 0%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
99.3%
Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the NAVY 13Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+12
99.3%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Cody Howard for 12 yds to the NAVY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.3%
Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the NAVY 26Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+24
99.3%
Landon Robinson run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
50
+10
99.2%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 10 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.2%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
99.2%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+15
99.2%
Braxton Woodson run for 15 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.1%
WOODSON, Braxton pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HOWARD, Cody thrown to the SMU0; QB hurried by MILLER, Jordan. PENALTY NAV Illegal Formation declined NAV Pass Interference on HOWARD, Cody enforced 15 yards to the SMU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 31
OPP 44
+15
99.2%
SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Alexander Kilgore) to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
99.1%
Daba Fofana run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 25
OPP 38
-6
99.2%
Braxton Woodson sacked by Cameron Robertson for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 15
OPP 33
-74
99.6%
Braxton Woodson pass intercepted Isaiah Nwokobia return for 74 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for no gain to the NAVY 25Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jake Bailey at the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.6%
Velton Gardner run for 3 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
99.6%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Adam Moore for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Alex Padilla pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:470% → 0%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.8%
Braxton Woodson run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+8
99.7%
Braxton Woodson run for 8 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.8%
Braxton Woodson run for 5 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Braxton Woodson run for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 5
OPP 29
-4
99.8%
Braxton Woodson sacked by Kobe Wilson and Je'lin Samuels for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 9
OPP 33
-4
99.9%
Braxton Woodson sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
99.8%
run for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 28 fumbled, recovered by SMU Alex Padilla [NHSG] SMU rush up the middle for a loss of 9 yards, fumbled at SMU37 , recovered by SMU PADILLA, Alex at the SMU28, returned 0 yards to the SMU28, End of Play.Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+2
99.8%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+8
99.8%
Velton Gardner run for 8 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
99.9%
Anton Hall Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 17
-1
99.9%
Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Braxton Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Keldric Luster run for 2 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
99.9%
Zane Minors run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Keldric Luster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 7 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-4
99.9%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 23 fumbled, recovered by NAVY Daba Fofana [NHSG] NAV rush up the middle for a loss of 4 yards, fumbled at NAV23 , recovered by NAV FOFANA, Daba at the NAV23, returned 0 yards to the NAV23 (ROBERSON JR., Kori).Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+4
99.9%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 4 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jake Bailey at the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
99.9%
Keldric Luster pass complete to Jaxson Lavender for 20 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
Zane Minors run for 1 yd to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Keldric Luster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Keldric Luster pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
99.9%
punt for 52 yds , returns for no gain to the NAVY 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
100.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 10 yds to the NAVY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
100.0%
Navy Penalty, False Start (Amin Hassan) to the NAVY 12Similar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+3
100.0%
Tyler Bradley run for 3 yds to the NAVY 15Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+5
100.0%
Logan Point run for 5 yds to the NAVY 20Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+4
100.0%
Braxton Woodson pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 4 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jake Bailey at the SMU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
99.9%
Zane Minors run for 1 yd to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
Zane Minors run for 5 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Zane Minors run for no gain to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 29END OF GAME
8 plays · 23 yds · 4:130% → 0%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
100.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 9 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+1
100.0%
Logan Point run for 1 yd to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
100.0%
Braxton Woodson run for 5 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+2
100.0%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+2
100.0%
Khalil Crawford run for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
100.0%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
100.0%
Khalil Crawford run for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
100.0%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:12
Will Benton IV 0 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Rogers Kick)
+3.2
TD · Q1 0:56
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q1 1:57
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 26 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com