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SMU

SMU 36 at Rice 31

RICE
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of GameFG-0.9RICE 28.5%Collin Rogers 41 Yd Field GoalAWAY 17 - HOME 14 · Q2 6:59
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:59 · Collin Rogers 41 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior−20.5Home team on offense−3.3Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:18: Dean Connors 14 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick) — RICE win probability +11.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 9:32: Tyler Lavine 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — SMU win probability +10.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:23: Dean Connors 1 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick) — RICE win probability +14.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:44: Tim Horn 32 Yd Field Goal — RICE win probability +16.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 2:49: Collin Rogers 51 Yd Field Goal — SMU win probability +13.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:05SMU 4th & 13 at RICE 44, tied
    Close callWent for it · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    77.1%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    77.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:57RICE 4th & 20 at RICE 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:56SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:18RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:25SMU 4th & 2 at RICE 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:31SMU 4th & 6 at RICE 31, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:59SMU 4th & 4 at RICE 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:25RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 45, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:52RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:52SMU 4th & 2 at RICE 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−0.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:37RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 37, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:05SMU 4th & 5 at RICE 20, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−7.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:23RICE 4th & 1 at SMU 1, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−9.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:57RICE 4th & 25 at RICE 30, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−6.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:58SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 41, up 5
    Close callPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:44RICE 4th & 7 at SMU 14, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−3.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−16.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:49SMU 4th & 14 at RICE 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−4.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−6.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:21RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.2%−6.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:56RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:22SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:48SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:07RICE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:09SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:18RICE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:32SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:23RICE Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:5580% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
20.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 34 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
20.3%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the RICE 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-10
20.3%
PENALTY SMU Holding (Hickman,Branson) 10 yards from Rice37 to Rice47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+3
20.3%
Preston Stone run for 3 yds to the RICE 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 44
0
20.3%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
21.2%
Ryan Bujcevski pass incomplete to Tyler LavineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 2:0821% → 22%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
21.3%
JT Daniels sacked by Elijah Chatman for a loss of 5 yards to the RICE 39Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+3
21.2%
Juma Otoviano run for 3 yds to the RICE 42Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 12
OWN 42
-8
21.2%
JT Daniels sacked by Elijah Roberts for a loss of 8 yards to the RICE 34Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 20
OWN 34
+10
22.1%
Conor Hunt punt for 49 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 10 yds to the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT TD
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0178% → 75%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
22.2%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 5 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
22.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+2
22.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
22.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
22.0%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jaylan KnightonSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
22.1%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Moochie DixonSimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+15
25.1%
Chike Anigbogu 15 Yd Punt Return (Tim Horn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3475% → 76%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
25.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 19 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
24.6%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jake BaileySimilar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
24.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the RICE 49Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+3
24.5%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the RICE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
24.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 11 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
24.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 1 yd to the RICE 34Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+34
23.7%
Roderick Daniels Jr. 34 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.6%
JT Daniels pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:2976% → 78%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
23.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 13 yds to the RICE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
21.6%
Preston Stone 20 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
22.2%
PENALTY Rice Personal Foul (Wyatt,Plae) 15 yards from SMU35 to SMU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3023% → 23%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 2 yds to the RICE 27Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
22.6%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the RICE 30Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
22.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
22.5%
Conor Hunt punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:5378% → 77%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
22.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to for 10 yds to the RICE 47 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Bailey) to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 16
OWN 36
+1
22.7%
Camar Wheaton run for 1 yd to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+18
22.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 18 yds to the RICE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
21.9%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
22.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 2 yds to the RICE 43Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+6
22.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the RICE 37Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
22.8%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:1924% → 23%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
23.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Landon Ransom-GoelzSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
23.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Landon Ransom-GoelzSimilar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-2
23.2%
JT Daniels sacked by Elijah Roberts for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 35 JT Daniels fumbled, recovered by SMU Nelson Paul , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3578% → 77%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
22.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the RICE 31Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
22.1%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jordan KerleySimilar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
22.4%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jake BaileySimilar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
22.9%
Collin Rogers 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:5324% → 34%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
24.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 6 yds to the RICE 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+7
24.6%
Juma Otoviano run for 7 yds to the RICE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
24.6%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Luke McCaffreySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+31
24.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 31 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
25.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 10 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
25.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 9 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+2
25.7%
Luke McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
25.7%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Landon Ransom-GoelzSimilar
Q2 11:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
33.9%
Luke McCaffrey 4 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)Similar
Q2 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
33.9%
PENALTY Rice Delay Of Game (McCaffrey,Luke) 5 yards from SMU03 to SMU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 4:0870% → 72%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
30.1%
Rice Penalty, Personal Foul (DJ Arkansas) to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
28.7%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 8 yds to the RICE 48Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+2
28.3%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 4
50
+5
29.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the RICE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
29.3%
PENALTY Rice Personal Foul (Green,Demone) 15 yards from Rice45 to Rice30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
28.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+4
28.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the RICE 24Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
29.4%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jaylan KnightonSimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
28.5%
Collin Rogers 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2730% → 33%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
30.2%
Dean Connors run for 8 yds to the RICE 31Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+5
31.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Dean Connors for 5 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
30.9%
Kobie Campbell run for 8 yds to the RICE 44Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
32.3%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Rawson MacNeillSimilar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
31.7%
Juma Otoviano run for 1 yd to the RICE 45Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
32.6%
Conor Hunt punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 2:1669% → 80%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+26
31.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 11 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST down Rice Penalty, Personal Foul (Plae Wyatt) to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
29.7%
PENALTY Rice Pass Interference (Fresch,Sean) 15 yards from SMU37 to Rice48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
28.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the RICE 43Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
28.1%
Preston Stone run for 4 yds to the RICE 39Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+9
28.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 9 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
28.0%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Jordan KerleySimilar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
28.0%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+30
20.4%
Jordan Hudson 30 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:4124% → 35%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
23.9%
Braylen Walker run for 20 yds to the SMU 19 Braylen Walker fumbled, recovered by RICE for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
25.4%
JT Daniels run for 2 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+3
25.4%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+14
34.9%
Dean Connors 14 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
31.5%
run for 2 yds to the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0832% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.9%
Juma Otoviano run for 3 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
32.1%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the RICE 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
30.6%
Chase Jenkins run for 1 yd to the RICE 27Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
30.3%
Conor Hunt punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:2071% → 80%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
29.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+34
29.4%
Preston Stone run for 34 yds to the RICE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
27.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the RICE 20Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+6
27.9%
Preston Stone run for 6 yds to the RICE 14 Preston Stone fumbled, recovered by SMU Preston Stone No Huddle-Shotgun Stone,Preston rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Rice14 fumbled by Stone,Preston at Rice17 forced by Morrison,Myron recovered by SMU Stone,Preston at Rice14, End Of Play.Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
29.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the RICE 14Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+11
30.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 11 yds to the RICE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.0%
Tyler Lavine 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:4822% → 22%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
22.4%
PENALTY SMU Personal Foul (Walker,Ahmad) 15 yards from Rice17 to Rice32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
22.9%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+1
22.8%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Dean Connors for 1 yd to the RICE 33Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+4
21.7%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the RICE 37Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+12
21.5%
Conor Hunt punt for 47 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 12 yds to the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:3279% → 86%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
21.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+7
20.9%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
20.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 27 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
19.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 3 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
19.3%
Preston Stone run for 5 yds to the RICE 27Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+2
20.1%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the RICE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
19.3%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the RICE 21Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
19.3%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the RICE 20Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
19.9%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
13.9%
Collin Rogers 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4217% → 31%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
16.7%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Rawson MacNeill for 37 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
19.0%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Boden GroenSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
18.5%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Matt SykesSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+29
17.6%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 29 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
20.3%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Landon Ransom-GoelzSimilar
Q3 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
20.3%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 1 yd to the SMU 8Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
18.7%
Chase Jenkins run for 6 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q3 0:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
16.9%
PENALTY SMU Offside (Levelston,DeVere) 1 yard from SMU02 to SMU01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.1%
Dean Connors 1 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:0674% → 77%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
25.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 28 yds to the RICE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
22.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the RICE 45 Jaylan Knighton fumbled, recovered by SMU Dj Arkansas No Huddle-Shotgun Knighton,Jaylan rush right for 2 yards gain to the Rice45 fumbled by Knighton,Jaylan at Rice45 forced by Hook,Daveon recovered by Rice Arkansas,DJ at Rice45, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:5731% → 26%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
31.1%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Dean Connors for 10 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST down Rice Penalty, Offensive Holding (Braedon Nutter) to the RICE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
31.1%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Rawson MacNeillSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
29.9%
PENALTY Rice False Start (McCaffrey,Luke) 5 yards from Rice45 to Rice40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 15
OWN 40
-7
28.7%
Chase Jenkins sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the RICE 33Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 22
OWN 33
+3
26.4%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 3 yds to the RICE 30Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 25
OWN 30
+5
25.7%
Conor Hunt punt for 41 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 5 yds to the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5976% → 74%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
24.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
24.6%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to LJ Johnson Jr.Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+6
26.2%
Preston Stone run for 6 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
25.6%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the RICE 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 25FG
7 plays · 66 yds · 4:1429% → 47%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
28.6%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 6 yds to the RICE 26Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+57
29.2%
Dean Connors run for 57 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
35.9%
PENALTY Rice Holding (Mojarro,Elijah) 10 yards from SMU17 to SMU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+3
34.7%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 3 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 23
OPP 30
+2
33.3%
Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 21
OPP 28
+14
30.7%
Chase Jenkins run for 14 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
47.1%
Tim Horn 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26FG
17 plays · 41 yds · 4:5564% → 85%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.5%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Moochie DixonSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
37.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Romello Brinson for 9 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
33.7%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
34.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+16
33.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to LJ Johnson Jr. for 16 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
32.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
29.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
30.3%
Kevin Jennings run for no gain to the RICE 30Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-10
30.6%
PENALTY SMU Holding (White,Hyrin) 10 yards from Rice30 to Rice40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+8
33.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 8 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 12
OPP 32
-5
22.3%
PENALTY SMU False Start (Daniels, Jr.,Roderick) 5 yards from Rice32 to Rice37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 17
OPP 37
+3
23.9%
Kevin Jennings run for 3 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+51
14.9%
Collin Rogers 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 27INT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:4220% → 14%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Landon Ransom-GoelzSimilar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.7%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Dean Connors for 6 yds to the RICE 19Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+15
19.1%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Boden Groen for 15 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
13.4%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
15.3%
Shawqi Itraish pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-15
14.1%
Rice Penalty, Personal Foul (Boden Groen) to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 1:0795% → 95%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
5.5%
run for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+1
5.4%
run for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 7:44
Tim Horn 32 Yd Field Goal
+16.3
TD · Q3 0:23
Dean Connors 1 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)
+14.2
FG · Q4 2:49
Collin Rogers 51 Yd Field Goal
-13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com