2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreUL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:13 · Ethan Duane punt for 43 yds, downed at the UL 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:18: Ben Wooldridge run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +15.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:36: Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 36 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +12.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:43: Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 61 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +15.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:57: Terrence Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +20.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:28: Grant Wilson pass complete to Kelby Williams for 37 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +12.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 3:32UL 4th & 6 at ODU 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snapGo for it60.2%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call60.3%87% to makePunt58.4%−1.9average punt
- Q1 1:56ODU 4th & 2 at UL 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.8%57% to convertField goal38.9%−0.932% to makePunt39.1%−0.7average punt
- Q1 1:56ODU 4th & 2 at UL 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.8%57% to convertField goal38.9%−0.932% to makePunt39.1%−0.7average punt
- Q1 1:00UL 4th & 5 at UL 48, up 3Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snapGo for it60.9%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 12:00ODU 4th & 5 at UL 22, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snapGo for it40.6%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call40.7%72% to makePunt37.0%−3.7average punt
- Q2 8:10UL 4th & 12 at UL 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snapGo for it55.4%−1.823% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.2%average punt
- Q3 9:14UL 4th & 17 at UL 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snapGo for it32.2%−3.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.1%average punt
- Q3 7:46ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snapGo for it65.8%−2.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.5%average punt
- Q3 6:03UL 4th & 6 at UL 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snapGo for it32.8%−0.939% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.8%average punt
- Q3 4:34UL 4th & 2 at ODU 14, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.8%56% to convertField goal18.6%−1.284% to makePunt9.3%−10.5average punt
- Q4 9:13UL 4th & 6 at ODU 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.9%40% to convertField goal8.3%−0.640% to makePunt7.6%−1.3average punt
- Q4 5:13ODU 4th & 12 at UL 46, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snapGo for it87.9%−0.723% to convertField goal87.4%−1.223% to makePuntTheir call88.5%average punt
- Q4 0:26UL 4th & 6 at ODU 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.1%32% to convertField goal10.0%−0.191% to makePunt6.0%−4.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:59UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.4%97% to makeGo for two63.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:26ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.9%97% to makeGo for two37.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:15ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.7%97% to makeGo for two54.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:18UL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.8%97% to makeGo for two50.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:36ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.6%97% to makeGo for two59.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 4:43ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.2%97% to makeGo for two83.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:57UL Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.9%97% to makeGo for two21.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:28ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call90.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two90.0%45% to convert
- Q4 9:13UL Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.0%97% to makeGo for two15.8%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartULDrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5675% → 75%
Q1 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
24.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 8 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+18
24.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 18 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+13
24.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 13 yds to the ODU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
24.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 15 yds to the ODU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
25.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 3 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2TD2 plays · 55 yds · 0:2626% → 28%
ULDrive 3FG13 plays · 54 yds · 6:4673% → 71%
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
26.9%
WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass deep to the right complete for 21 yards to BERNARD, Jacob caught at the ODU45 and advanced to the ODU44 (ASBURY, Shawn), out of bounds. PENALTY LA Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on THOMAS, Nathan enforced 5 yards from the LA35 to the LA30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
27.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 15 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
26.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 4 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
26.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Neal Johnson for 5 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+6
26.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 6 yds to the ODU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4DOWNS5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2830% → 30%
Q1 3:24
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+7
30.2%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 7 yds to the UL 41Similar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 2
OPP 41
-2
30.1%
Grant Wilson sacked by Jordan Lawson for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 43Similar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 2
OPP 41
-2
30.1%
Grant Wilson sacked by Jordan Lawson for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5671% → 70%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
28.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 5 yds to the UL 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6FG12 plays · 58 yds · 4:0030% → 35%
ULDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 3:4467% → 65%
Q2 11:54
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+8
33.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 8 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
32.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 6 yds to the UL 41Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-2
33.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrence Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8TD11 plays · 65 yds · 3:5537% → 53%
Q2 7:20
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+2
39.8%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Jordan Bly for 2 yds to the UL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD9 plays · 72 yds · 3:5051% → 67%
Q2 0:23
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+43
49.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Charles Robertson for 43 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:2041% → 57%
ULDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 3:1645% → 39%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
54.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Neal Johnson for 6 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+4
53.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 4 yds to the UL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-17
53.0%
Zylan Perry run for a loss of 17 yards to the UL 17 Zylan Perry fumbled, recovered by UL Zylan PerrySimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 17
OWN 26
0
60.7%
Thomas Leo punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2862% → 59%
ULDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4340% → 37%
Q3 6:03
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
63.3%
Thomas Leo punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15TD3 plays · 68 yds · 1:2067% → 83%
ULDrive 16TD10 plays · 55 yds · 4:3722% → 38%
Q3 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
75.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Neal Johnson for 5 yds to the ODU 17Similar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+10
77.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 10 yds to the ODU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.2%
Terrence Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17TD9 plays · 83 yds · 2:2477% → 92%
Q4 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+10
77.2%
WILSON, Grant pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DUTTON, Dominic thrown to the LA45. PENALTY LA Holding on MARTIN, Keyon enforced 10 yards from the ODU22 to the ODU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
77.2%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Obie Sanni for 7 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+15
79.3%
WILSON, Grant pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for DUTTON, Dominic thrown to the LA7. PENALTY LA Pass Interference on MARTIN, Keyon enforced 15 yards to the LA40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+37
92.3%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kelby Williams for 37 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD7 plays · 90 yds · 3:1012% → 25%
Q4 12:23
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+43
88.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 43 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+6
86.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Neal Johnson for 6 yds to the ODU 37Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+37
75.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for 37 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19PUNT13 plays · 31 yds · 3:5683% → 87%
ULDrive 20DOWNS17 plays · 90 yds · 4:4713% → 12%
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
86.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 9 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
85.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Robert Williams for 5 yds to the UL 37Similar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
82.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 12 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
81.3%
WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Robert broken up by ASBURY, Shawn at the ODU0. PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on ASBURY, Shawn enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards to the ODU11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
96.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by WILSON, Grant at ODU5 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:57
Terrence Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-20.4
TD · Q2 0:18
Ben Wooldridge run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-15.8
TD · Q3 4:43
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 61 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+15.1