Old Dominion

Profile vs. FBS, 2017

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense−0.038th
  Defense+0.1240th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense36.7%3rd
  Defense44.1%36th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1636th
  Defense+1.1953rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense0.0025th
  Defense+0.0936th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense−0.059th
  Defense+0.1647th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense41.5%5th
  Defense47.4%43rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense27.9%8th
  Defense37.1%16th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.549th
  Defense2.9243rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense22.4%19th
  Defense19.9%52nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.0%48th
  Defense15.2%39th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2017

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Old Dominion allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UALB
2. W
   MASS
3. L
   UNC
4. L
   VT
5. L
   FAU
6. L
   MRSH
7. L
   WKU
8. L
   UNT
9. W
   CLT
10. W
    FIU
11. W
    RICE
12. L
    MTSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Old Dominion.

Players, 2017

1. Ray LawryRB127 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 59th of 352 RBs
   0.39WAR0.25 to 0.50
2. Jeremy CoxRB133 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 61st of 352 RBs
   0.38WAR0.26 to 0.49
3. Steven WilliamsLB65 plays · +0.168 pts/play
   0.20WAR0.16 to 0.26
4. Blake LaRussaQB52 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 182nd of 226 QBs
   0.17WAR0.08 to 0.25
5. Nick RicePK18 plays · +0.302 pts/play · 57th of 110 kickers
   0.10WAR0.02 to 0.18
6. Isaiah HarperWR59 plays · +0.080 pts/play · 231st of 426 WRs
   0.09WAR0.05 to 0.13
7. Travis FulghamWR49 plays · +0.087 pts/play · 254th of 426 WRs
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.13
8. Jonathan DuhartWR9 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 384th of 426 WRs
   0.02WAR0.02 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Old Dominion's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2017

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  331331108th of 130Roster talent: 331, 108th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  114114111th of 130Recruiting: 114, 111th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  56%56%80th of 128Returning production: 56%, 80th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −16.8−16.8118th of 128SP+ rating: −16.8, 118th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Old Dominion's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at FIUQ4 7:52 4th & 1 at FIU 1, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−4.6 pts
2. vs RICEQ4 11:45 4th & 1 at ODU 34, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.2 pts
3. vs CLTQ4 0:53 4th & 1 at CLT 34, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
4. vs WKUQ2 5:56 4th & 1 at ODU 28, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. vs CLTQ4 8:16 4th & 4 at CLT 29, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. vs CLTQ3 5:03 4th & 2 at CLT 14, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
7. vs RICEQ3 13:02 4th & 8 at RICE 34, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. vs RICEQ4 8:46 4th & 4 at ODU 46, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2017

48th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Old Dominion's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   UALB
2. W

   MASS
3. L

   UNC
4. L

   VT
5. L

   FAU
6. L

   MRSH
7. L

   WKU
8. L

   UNT
9. W

   CLT
10. W

    FIU
11. W

    RICE
12. L

    MTSU

What moved it, 2017

Every game starts at Old Dominion's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.15
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock+0.02
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.41

Game by game

• UALBW 31-17 vs UALB94% → 99%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +11, Timeouts +1
• MASSW 17-7 at MASS55% → 96%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +47, Clock +2
• UNCL 23-53 vs UNC24% → 0%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −31, Clock −1
• VTL 0-38 at VT4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
• FAUL 28-58 vs FAU28% → 0%Before kickoff −22 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −35
• MRSHL 3-35 at MRSH19% → 0%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −21
• WKUL 31-35 vs WKU32% → 19%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −34, Clock −2
• UNTL 38-45 at UNT23% → 3%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −24, Timeouts −1
• CLTW 6-0 vs CLT75% → 97%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +2
• FIUW 37-30 at FIU21% → 88%Before kickoff −29 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +46, Clock +2
• RICEW 24-21 vs RICE70% → 91%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts −1
• MTSUL 10-41 at MTSU17% → 0%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −19

Points of win probability, from Old Dominion's side.

Closest call

VT 35-49 ODU (2018) - Old Dominion dropped to a 3.2% win probability before pulling it out.