2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadUALB aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreUALB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Bailey Cate punt for 65 yds, downed at the Alban 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:22: Brandon Simmons run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +2.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:42: Gemonta Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +2.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:43: Neven Sussman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ethan Stark KICK) — UALB win probability +4.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:42: Karl Mofor run for 31 yds for a TD, (Ethan Stark KICK) — UALB win probability +11.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:51: Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 55 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +6.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UALB made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 15:00ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snapGo for it93.6%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.7%average punt
- Q1 13:33UALB 4th & 6 at UALB 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.7%average punt
- Q1 9:15UALB 4th & 4 at UALB 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q1 7:38ODU 4th & 1 at UALB 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt92.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:53UALB 4th & 12 at ODU 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.222% to convertField goalTheir call8.5%75% to makePunt7.6%−0.9average punt
- Q1 1:47ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 29, up 4Close callPunted · 90.1% before the snapGo for it90.2%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00UALB 4th & 8 at UALB 23, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.6%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%average punt
- Q2 12:17UALB 4th & 9 at UALB 31, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snapGo for it8.2%−0.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q2 9:51ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 39, up 11Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snapGo for it91.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:22UALB 4th & 13 at UALB 5, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it7.7%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%average punt
- Q2 6:33ODU 4th & 11 at UALB 34, up 11Close callWent for it · 91.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.9%−0.127% to convertField goal91.0%47% to makePunt90.8%−0.2average punt
- Q3 15:00UALB 4th & 6 at ODU 43, down 18Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it6.0%40% to convertField goal5.4%−0.628% to makePuntTheir call5.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:33ODU 4th & 5 at UALB 9, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.2%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call96.4%89% to makePunt93.7%−2.6average punt
- Q4 12:36ODU 4th & 30 at ODU 11, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it93.6%−2.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
- Q4 12:05UALB 4th & 11 at UALB 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q4 7:51UALB 4th & 12 at UALB 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it4.3%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q4 6:00ODU 4th & 7 at ODU 26, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.5%−0.536% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
- Q4 2:50UALB 4th & 7 at ODU 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%37% to convertField goal2.9%−0.327% to makePunt2.7%−0.5average punt
- Q4 2:50UALB 4th & 10 at ODU 11, down 14Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%−0.924% to convertField goal4.0%87% to makePunt2.2%−1.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UALB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:15ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:22ODU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.4%97% to makeGo for two91.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:42ODU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.7%97% to makeGo for two94.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:43UALB Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.6%97% to makeGo for two4.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:42UALB Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.4%97% to makeGo for two10.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:51ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%−0.397% to makeGo for two95.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
94.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 5 yds to the ODU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:006% → 6%
ODUDrive 3INT2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
UALBDrive 4INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
92.9%
Will Brunson pass intercepted Marvin Branch return for no gain to the Alban 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5TD3 plays · 48 yds · 0:5793% → 93%
UALBDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 9:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-3
93.4%
Neven Sussman punt for 41 yds , Darrell Brown returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
93.1%
Jordan Hoy pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 17 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
93.1%
Jeremy Cox run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line Jeremy Cox fumbled, forced by DaeSean Timmons, recovered by Alban Nate Hatalsky , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 8FG11 plays · 30 yds · 3:558% → 9%
ODUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 1:47
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+2
90.7%
Bailey Cate punt for 52 yds , Tim Voorhis returns for 2 yds to the Alban 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:329% → 9%
ODUDrive 11TD4 plays · 41 yds · 0:5891% → 93%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
90.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 10 yds to the Alban 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 12:17
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+6
92.2%
Neven Sussman punt for 43 yds , Darrell Brown returns for 6 yds to the ODU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
92.1%
Jordan Hoy pass complete to Gemonta Jackson for 3 yds to the ODU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:508% → 7%
ODUDrive 15TD13 plays · 45 yds · 5:5193% → 95%
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
92.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for no gain to the Alban 45Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+5
92.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Gemonta Jackson for 5 yds to the Alban 29Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 11
OPP 34
+15
92.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Nijee Cox for 15 yds to the Alban 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+8
92.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 8 yds to the Alban 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 32 yds · 0:005% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18FG14 plays · 77 yds · 4:5596% → 98%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
96.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to DeAndre Woods for no gain to the ODU 14Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+14
96.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 14 yds to the ODU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
96.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 15 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+15
96.5%
LARUSSA, Blake pass incomplete to DUHART, J. (Ty Tobias), PENALTY UALBANY pass interference (Ty Tobias) 15 yards to the UALBANY28, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
96.5%
ALBANY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (14 Yards) to the Alban 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-10
97.2%
Jeremy Cox run for no gain to the Alban 12 OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive holding (Isaac Weaver) to the Alban 22Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 18
OPP 22
+13
97.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 13 yds to the Alban 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 19TD15 plays · 75 yds · 7:502% → 6%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.8%
Will Brunson pass complete to Karl Mofor for 4 yds to the Alban 29Similar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
97.7%
Will Brunson sacked by Oshane Ximines for a loss of 8 yards to the Alban 28Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 9
50
+15
97.7%
Will Brunson pass complete to Jerod Diggs for 15 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
97.5%
Karl Mofor rush for loss of 33 yards to the UALBANY32 (CARTER, Sean), PENALTY ODU offside defense (WARD, Tim) 5 yards to the ODU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 5
OPP 30
+14
97.4%
Will Brunson pass complete to Anthony Manzo-Lewis for 14 yds to the ODU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -20 yds · 1:0096% → 96%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
96.4%
Jordan Hoy pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 4 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-18
96.5%
Jordan Hoy sacked by Eli Mencer for a loss of 18 yards to the ODU 11 Jordan Hoy fumbled, recovered by ODU Jeremy Cox , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q4 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
95.3%
Will Brunson pass incomplete to Brad Harris, broken up by Joe Joe HeadenSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-3
95.4%
Will Brunson sacked by Pat Toal for a loss of 3 yards to the Alban 37Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+1
95.8%
Neven Sussman punt for 52 yds , Darrell Brown returns for 1 yd to the ODU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22INT2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
UALBDrive 23TD4 plays · 46 yds · 1:115% → 16%
ODUDrive 24TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5190% → 97%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
89.5%
LARUSSA, Blake pass complete to HARPER, Isaiah for no gain to the ODU25 (Jamal Robinson), PENALTY UALBANY face mask (Jamal Robinson) 15 yards to the ODU40, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+55
97.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 55 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:004% → 4%
ODUDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
UALBDrive 27DOWNS14 plays · 51 yds · 0:573% → 2%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
97.2%
Will Brunson pass complete to Anthony Manzo-Lewis for 12 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
97.2%
Will Brunson pass complete to Brad Harris for 7 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 3
OPP 40
-7
96.9%
Will Brunson sacked by Daniel Appouh for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 47Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+8
98.6%
Will Brunson pass complete to Jerod Diggs for 8 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
98.4%
Will Brunson sacked by Bunmi Rotimi for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 41Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+18
98.5%
Will Brunson pass complete to Jerod Diggs for 18 yds to the ODU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
98.2%
Will Brunson pass complete to Brad Harris for 12 yds to the ODU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
98.2%
Will Brunson pass incomplete to Jordan Crockett, broken up by Justin NoyeSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
98.2%
Will Brunson pass incomplete to Jerod Diggs, broken up by Joe Joe HeadenSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
98.4%
Will Brunson pass incomplete to Jerod Diggs, broken up by Joe Joe HeadenSimilar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+3
98.5%
Will Brunson pass complete to Anthony Manzo-Lewis for 3 yds to the ODU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:42
Karl Mofor run for 31 yds for a TD, (Ethan Stark KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q4 7:51
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 55 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q4 13:43
Neven Sussman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ethan Stark KICK)
-4.4