2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreFAU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:04 · Steven Williams pass incomplete to Gemonta Jackson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:39: Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +9.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:32: Jason Driskel run for 39 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +8.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:16: Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 26 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +9.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:31: Jason Driskel run for 7 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +10.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:52: Devin Singletary run for 13 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +8.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 15:00FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt62.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:25FAU 4th & 3 at ODU 3, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snapGo for it61.1%44% to convertField goalTheir call61.0%−0.293% to makePunt60.1%−1.0average punt
- Q1 2:51ODU 4th & 5 at FAU 47, down 10Close callPunted · 35.5% before the snapGo for it35.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:49FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 20, up 10Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snapGo for it63.8%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 9:31ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 34, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt25.6%−0.9average punt
- Q2 3:32ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 24, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snapGo for it21.4%−1.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.8%average punt
- Q2 1:09ODU 4th & 11 at FAU 40, down 17Close callWent for it · 22.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.8%−0.127% to convertField goal21.9%34% to makePunt21.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 13:08FAU 4th & 17 at FAU 41, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snapGo for it69.2%−2.914% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.1%average punt
- Q3 12:23ODU 4th & 7 at ODU 19, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.7%−0.535% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.2%average punt
- Q3 8:31ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 24, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snapGo for it15.3%−1.625% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.9%average punt
- Q3 7:40FAU 4th & 1 at ODU 21, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.4%71% to convertField goal83.3%−2.174% to makePunt76.7%−8.7average punt
- Q3 4:12FAU 4th & 5 at ODU 37, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.1%42% to convertField goal95.8%−0.240% to makePunt95.8%−0.3average punt
- Q4 12:15FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 35, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q4 9:50ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 38, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:02ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 28, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 1:20FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 22, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 6:56ODU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.7%97% to makeGo for two41.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:15FAU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.7%97% to makeGo for two60.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:51FAU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.2%97% to makeGo for two64.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:39FAU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.8%97% to makeGo for two72.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:55ODU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.6%97% to makeGo for two31.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:32FAU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.5%97% to makeGo for two76.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:16ODU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.5%97% to makeGo for two28.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:31FAU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.6%97% to makeGo for two83.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:52FAU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%97% to makeGo for two96.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:35FAU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:18ODU Touchdown, down 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.6%97% to makeGo for two2.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:07FAU Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAUDrive 1FG19 plays · 72 yds · 5:3572% → 70%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
28.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 5 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
28.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 17 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-4
28.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+11
28.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 11 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+6
28.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 6 yds to the ODU 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
28.4%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to SOLOMON, Kamrin, PENALTY ODU offside defense (ROSS, Juwan) 4 yards to the ODU3, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2931% → 34%
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+12
31.3%
Steven Williams pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 12 yds to the FlAtl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
31.3%
Steven Williams pass complete to DeAndre Woods for 3 yds to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
33.8%
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4167% → 69%
Q1 6:56
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+17
32.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 17 yds to the ODU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
32.1%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to SOLOMON, Kamrin, PENALTY ODU pass interference (BRICKHOUSE, J.) 15 yards to the ODU11, 1ST DOWN FAU(1), NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4INT5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
31.7%
WILLIAMS, S. pass incomplete to HAYES, Eri'Reon, PENALTY FAU(1) pass interference (HAFIZ, Quran) 15 yards to the ODU43, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
32.4%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jeremy Cox for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 41Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+31
31.9%
Steven Williams pass intercepted Jalen Young return for 31 yds to the ODU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5TD4 plays · 41 yds · 1:0068% → 72%
Q1 3:51
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+27
31.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 27 yds to the ODU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
FAUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
ODUDrive 8INT6 plays · 24 yds · 0:4029% → 29%
FAUDrive 9TD12 plays · 72 yds · 3:1271% → 82%
ODUDrive 10TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:4421% → 28%
FAUDrive 11TD7 plays · 73 yds · 2:1874% → 85%
ODUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
ODUDrive 13DOWNS7 plays · -5 yds · 0:5319% → 24%
Q2 1:09
4TH & 11
OPP 40
-4
24.1%
Steven Williams sacked by N/A for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14INT3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
ODUDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
ODUDrive 16TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:4417% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.8%
Steven Williams pass complete to Eri'Reon Hayes for 5 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
17.4%
WILLIAMS, S. pass incomplete to VAUGHN, Melvin, PENALTY FAU(1) pass interference (LEWIS, Shelton) 15 yards to the ODU45, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+10
18.2%
WILLIAMS, S. pass incomplete to HARPER, Isaiah, PENALTY FAU(1) holding (MILLER, Herb) 10 yards to the FAU(1)42, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+15
18.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
27.5%
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 26 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
ODUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 12:23
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
23.6%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Isaiah Harper, broken up by Rashad SmithSimilar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+2
22.6%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 2 yds to the ODU 19Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
22.2%
Bailey Cate punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kamrin Solomon at the FlAtl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19TD8 plays · 57 yds · 2:2977% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 8:31
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
13.5%
Bailey Cate punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Kamrin Solomon at the FlAtl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21TD9 plays · 53 yds · 2:4888% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
FAUDrive 23DOWNS5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
ODUDrive 24INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
FAUDrive 25TD7 plays · 52 yds · 3:0498% → 100%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+5
2.3%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to FRANKLIN, John, PENALTY ODU offside defense (WARD, Tim) 5 yards to the ODU35, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 26TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 28DOWNS7 plays · 26 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 9:50
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+19
2.0%
Steven Williams pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 19 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
2.1%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Gemonta Jackson, broken up by Ernest BagnerSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
2.0%
Steven Williams pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 5 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
2.2%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Isaiah Harper, broken up by Rashad SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 29TD3 plays · 38 yds · 1:3399% → 100%
ODUDrive 30PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 31PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q4 1:20
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+10
0.1%
Ryan Rickel punt for 45 yds , Darrell Brown returns for 10 yds to the ODU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 32END OF GAME9 plays · 55 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q4 0:54
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+16
0.1%
Steven Williams pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 16 yds to the OLDDOMNION 37 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+23
0.1%
Steven Williams pass complete to Noah Ellison for 23 yds to the FlAtl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:31
Jason Driskel run for 7 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 10:39
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q3 13:16
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 26 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)
+9.2