2022 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2022 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreVT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FUMBLE · Q2 1:26: TEAM run for a loss of 54 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by ODU Robert Kennedy III , return for 25 yds, (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +13.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:03: William Ross 44 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +7.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:11: Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 6 yds for a TD, (William Ross KICK) — VT win probability +15.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:41: Timeout VIRGINIA TECH, clock 00:41 — ODU win probability +24.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 0:00: Blake Watson 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick) — ODU win probability +51.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 12:10VT 4th & 10 at VT 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snapGo for it62.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.9%average punt
- Q1 10:43ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 18, tiedClose callPunted · 37.3% before the snapGo for it37.3%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:26ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 28, down 7Close callPunted · 35.7% before the snapGo for it36.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:09VT 4th & 4 at VT 44, up 7Close callPunted · 64.4% before the snapGo for it64.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:17ODU 4th & 10 at VT 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snapGo for it35.6%−0.130% to convertField goal35.3%−0.428% to makePuntTheir call35.7%average punt
- Q2 12:02ODU 4th & 9 at VT 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snapGo for it35.1%−0.727% to convertField goalTheir call35.9%87% to makePunt30.4%−5.5average punt
- Q2 9:06ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 40, down 4Close callPunted · 39.1% before the snapGo for it39.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.7%−0.4average punt
- Q2 5:49VT 4th & 4 at ODU 46, up 4Close callPunted · 61.7% before the snapGo for it62.0%48% to convertField goal60.5%−1.623% to makePuntTheir call61.4%−0.6average punt
- Q2 4:47ODU 4th & 7 at ODU 18, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snapGo for it36.2%−1.035% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.3%average punt
- Q2 1:26VT 4th & 14 at ODU 21, up 4Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 61.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.7%−2.117% to convertField goal61.8%74% to makePunt56.0%−5.8average punt
- Q2 0:35VT 4th & 15 at VT 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snapGo for it43.2%−3.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.3%average punt
- Q3 13:31ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 26, up 3Close callPunted · 51.1% before the snapGo for it52.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 9:03VT 4th & 6 at ODU 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snapGo for it46.7%−0.239% to convertField goalTheir call46.9%62% to makePunt39.1%−7.8average punt
- Q3 8:00ODU 4th & 12 at ODU 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snapGo for it45.1%−4.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.2%average punt
- Q3 6:04VT 4th & 12 at VT 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snapGo for it49.2%−3.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.6%average punt
- Q3 2:50ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snapGo for it28.0%−2.831% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.8%average punt
- Q3 1:27VT 4th & 7 at VT 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it69.3%−1.735% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.0%average punt
- Q4 12:30ODU 4th & 3 at VT 3, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snapGo for it31.5%44% to convertField goalTheir call28.7%−2.793% to makePunt15.7%−15.8average punt
- Q4 8:57VT 4th & 9 at VT 44, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snapGo for it65.1%−3.032% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.2%average punt
- Q4 6:57ODU 4th & 11 at VT 40, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.1%27% to convertField goal31.0%−0.134% to makePunt29.8%−1.2average punt
- Q4 1:40ODU 4th & 1 at VT 41, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.8%70% to convertField goal17.6%−10.232% to makePunt12.6%−15.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:12VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.3%97% to makeGo for two63.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:11VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.9%97% to makeGo for two67.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 0:00ODU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.2%97% to makeGo for two79.8%−2.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 13 yds · 2:4563% → 62%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
37.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 4 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-5
37.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Johnny Jordan) to the VTech 23Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+5
37.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 5 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+9
37.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 9 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
37.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 1 yd to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
38.5%
Peter Moore punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1738% → 39%
Q1 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+4
38.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 4 yds to the ODU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3TD4 plays · 66 yds · 1:2261% → 63%
Q1 10:03
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+39
38.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 39 yds to the ODU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3537% → 37%
Q1 7:26
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
36.9%
Ethan Duane punt for 49 yds , DJ Harvey returns for no gain to the VTech 28 OLDDOMINION Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (LaMareon James) to the VTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5164% → 63%
Q1 6:09
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
36.7%
Peter Moore punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 37 yds · 3:2537% → 37%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
37.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 14 yds to the 50 yard line OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive Holding (Javon Harvey) to the ODU 40Similar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 6
OWN 40
+2
38.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 2 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+15
37.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chamarri Conner) to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 10
OPP 43
+2
36.6%
Ethan Duane punt for 36 yds , William Kakavitsas returns for 2 yds to the VTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7INT3 plays · 6 yds · 1:2763% → 63%
ODUDrive 8FG9 plays · 25 yds · 3:3538% → 41%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
38.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordan Bly for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9INT6 plays · 57 yds · 1:0860% → 62%
Q2 11:05
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+30
40.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 15 yds to the VTech 28 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Marcus Haynes) to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
38.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 24 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
37.9%
Grant Wells pass intercepted Tobias Harris return for no gain to the ODU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 0:5741% → 40%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
40.7%
Wolff, Hayden pass incomplete to Kuntz, Zack, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Hawkins, Ny'Quee) 11 yards to the ODU34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ODU.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 36 yds · 3:0960% → 61%
Q2 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
40.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 8 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
37.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 7 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
39.1%
Peter Moore punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tobias Harris at the ODU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5740% → 38%
VTDrive 13FUMBLE TD8 plays · -7 yds · 3:1261% → 49%
Q2 1:44
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-15
35.5%
Wells, Grant pass complete to Lofton, Da'Wain for 9 yards to the ODU3, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Kakavitsas, William) 15 yards to the ODU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 20
OPP 27
+6
37.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 6 yds to the ODU 21Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+25
51.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 54 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by ODU Robert Kennedy III , return for 25 yds, (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT7 plays · -5 yds · 0:3249% → 47%
Q2 0:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
52.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Parker Clements) to the VTech 23Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-3
52.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jadan Blue for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 20Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
53.2%
Peter Moore punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15FUMBLE1 play · 16 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
51.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 16 yds Ali Jennings III fumbled, forced by Dax Hollifield, recovered by VTech Dax HollifieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16END OF HALF4 plays · 13 yds · 0:2054% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1852% → 52%
Q3 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
53.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 5 yds to the ODU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18FG10 plays · 46 yds · 4:1948% → 54%
Q3 12:18
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
50.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Drake De Iuliis for 7 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
49.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 16 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-5
48.4%
Wells, Grant pass incomplete to Gallo, Nick, PENALTY VATECH illegal motion (Wright, Dae'Quan) 5 yards to the ODU32, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5550% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 1:5053% → 50%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
47.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 17 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-3
45.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
49.9%
Peter Moore punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21FUMBLE1 play · -9 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.0%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Jaden Keller for a loss of 9 yards to the ODU 10 Hayden Wolff fumbled, forced by Jaden Keller, recovered by VTech Dax Hollifield , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the ODU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD4 plays · 10 yds · 0:4459% → 74%
Q3 5:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
26.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 6 yds for a TD, (William Ross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0131% → 29%
Q3 2:50
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+1
29.1%
Ethan Duane punt for 44 yds , DJ Harvey returns for 1 yd to the VTech 33 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the VTech 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1372% → 70%
Q3 1:27
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
29.7%
Peter Moore punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25FG15 plays · 49 yds · 3:4735% → 41%
Q3 0:32
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+9
30.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 9 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+15
32.7%
Wolff, Hayden pass incomplete to Jennings III, Ali, PENALTY VATECH pass interference 15 yards to the VATECH29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ODU.Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+9
34.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 9 yds to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
36.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (Dax Hollifield) to the VTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1568% → 68%
Q4 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+11
31.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 11 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
28.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 4 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-5
28.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Johnny Jordan) to the VTech 44Similar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
32.1%
Peter Moore punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tobias Harris at the ODU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 27DOWNS6 plays · 34 yds · 1:2139% → 37%
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+35
38.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 35 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28INT10 plays · 19 yds · 3:4976% → 85%
Q4 6:09
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+9
24.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+10
22.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 10 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
19.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Drake De Iuliis for 5 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-5
17.2%
Holston, Jalen rush for 3 yards to the ODU30, PENALTY VATECH illegal formation 5 yards to the ODU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 13
OPP 41
-1
15.3%
Grant Wells pass intercepted Ryan Henry return for 1 yd to the ODU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 29TD12 plays · 59 yds · 2:5834% → 96%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
34.0%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ODU 26Similar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
29.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+5
29.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordan Bly for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+38
29.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 38 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Dorian Strong) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 30INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1617% → 15%
ODUDrive 31END OF GAME1 play · -3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Blake Watson 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)
+51.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:41
Timeout VIRGINIA TECH, clock 00:41
+24.3
TD · Q3 5:11
Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 6 yds for a TD, (William Ross KICK)
-15.7