2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreMRSH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:12 · Ethan Duane punt for 59 yds, downed at the Marsh 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 5:51: Hayden Wolff pass incomplete — ODU win probability +5.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 3:07: Khalan Laborn run for 12 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST down — MRSH win probability +6.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- INT · Q3 0:39: Cam Fancher pass intercepted, touchback. — MRSH win probability +5.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 10:50: Rece Verhoff 23 yd FG GOOD — MRSH win probability +9.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 9:31: Khalan Laborn run for 16 yds to the ODU 27 for a 1ST down — MRSH win probability +5.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MRSH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:07ODU 4th & 7 at MRSH 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snapGo for it43.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.2%average punt
- Q1 7:58MRSH 4th & 14 at MRSH 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snapGo for it55.2%−0.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.6%average punt
- Q1 5:16ODU 4th & 6 at MRSH 41, tiedClose callPunted · 45.3% before the snapGo for it45.4%40% to convertField goal45.1%−0.332% to makePuntTheir call45.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 13:48MRSH 4th & 9 at ODU 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snapGo for it53.8%−0.529% to convertField goalTheir call54.4%81% to makePunt51.4%−3.0average punt
- Q2 10:35MRSH 4th & 8 at ODU 8, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snapGo for it54.9%−0.426% to convertField goalTheir call55.3%90% to makePunt50.7%−4.6average punt
- Q2 9:33ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 30, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snapGo for it39.9%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.0%average punt
- Q2 7:36MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 44, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snapGo for it60.5%−1.029% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.6%average punt
- Q2 6:37ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 17, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snapGo for it37.2%−1.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.2%average punt
- Q2 4:27ODU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 6Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snapGo for it40.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.8%−0.9average punt
- Q2 0:12ODU 4th & 17 at ODU 40, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snapGo for it36.0%−1.014% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.0%average punt
- Q3 12:38ODU 4th & 6 at ODU 30, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snapGo for it36.9%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.4%average punt
- Q3 8:39MRSH 4th & 1 at ODU 12, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snapGo for it66.8%71% to convertField goalTheir call64.0%−2.886% to makePunt55.1%−11.7average punt
- Q3 6:06ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 23, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snapGo for it26.4%−2.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.5%average punt
- Q3 4:39MRSH 4th & 13 at MRSH 18, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snapGo for it68.2%−3.419% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.5%average punt
- Q4 10:50MRSH 4th & 4 at ODU 5, up 9Close callKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snapGo for it78.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call77.7%−1.092% to makePunt66.2%−12.5average punt
- Q4 9:31ODU 4th & 7 at ODU 43, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.8%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:26MRSH 4th & 7 at ODU 24, up 12Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snapGo for it91.1%−0.336% to convertField goalTheir call91.4%68% to makePunt86.4%−5.0average punt
- Q4 3:41MRSH 4th & 7 at ODU 48, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snapGo for it93.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.9%average punt
- Q4 1:50ODU 4th & 2 at MRSH 22, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.9%57% to convertField goal5.4%−0.572% to makePunt3.3%−2.6average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 2:5341% → 42%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordan Bly for 2 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
41.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 10 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
41.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Javon Harvey for 7 yds to the ODU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
41.9%
Ethan Duane punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andre Sam at the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 4:0958% → 57%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
41.7%
QB Keeper FANCHER, Cam rush up the middle for a loss of 7 yards, FANCHER, Cam fumbled at MAR35 , recovered by MAR FANCHER, Cam at the MAR35, returned 7 yards to the MAR42 (JOHNSON, R'Tarriun), out of bounds. PENALTY MAR Face mask on DRISKELL, Ethan enforced 15 yards from the MAR42 to the MAR27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 21
OWN 31
+5
42.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to EJ Horton for 5 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 14
OWN 38
+9
43.5%
John McConnell punt for 46 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 9 yds to the ODU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 34 yds · 2:4243% → 44%
Q1 7:58
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+31
42.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Javon Harvey for 31 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4FG16 plays · 76 yds · 6:2856% → 57%
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+7
44.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Devin Miller for 7 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
43.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Corey Gammage for 4 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+5
44.4%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jason Henderson) to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+10
43.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Corey Gammage for 10 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+10
42.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 10 yds to the ODU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5FUMBLE3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4944% → 45%
MRSHDrive 6FG5 plays · 14 yds · 2:2459% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0241% → 40%
MRSHDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5761% → 62%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
38.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Charles Montgomery for 7 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-3
37.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to A.J. Turner for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 44Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
38.2%
John McConnell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5940% → 39%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10INT3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4664% → 64%
ODUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2442% → 38%
Q2 5:51
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+4
40.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
38.4%
FANCHER, Cam pass to the right incomplete intended for AHMED, Shadeed thrown to the MAR19. PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on HARRIS, Tobias enforced 15 yards to the MAR18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT14 plays · 42 yds · 2:4962% → 62%
Q2 4:27
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+11
36.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Ethan Payne for 11 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
35.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Charles Montgomery for 11 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
34.7%
MARSHALL Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Devin Miller) to the ODU 48Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 21
OPP 44
-15
35.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Marsh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 1:2638% → 37%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
37.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 11 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
38.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordan Bly for 18 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
40.3%
WOLFF, Hayden pass to the left complete for 6 yards to JENNINGS, Ali caught at the MAR47 and advanced to the MAR47 (GILMORE, Steven). PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on JENNINGS, Ali enforced 15 yards to the ODU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14END OF HALF6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1262% → 63%
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 2
-1
37.2%
Cam Fancher run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 1 Cam Fancher fumbled, recovered by Marsh Cam FancherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0064% → 65%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
35.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to EJ Horton for 12 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5339% → 36%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
38.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 9 yds to the ODU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17FG9 plays · 63 yds · 3:5965% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 2:2830% → 27%
Q3 8:34
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-6
29.8%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Eli Neal for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2772% → 71%
Q3 4:39
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
29.3%
John McConnell punt for 45 yds , Tobias Harris returns for no gain to the ODU 18 OLDDOMINION Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ODU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20FUMBLE4 plays · 32 yds · 1:3228% → 30%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
28.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 15 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
28.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 5 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
29.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Javon Harvey for 7 yds Javon Harvey fumbled, recovered by Marsh Jadarius Green-McKnight , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21INT6 plays · 30 yds · 2:2877% → 80%
Q3 3:07
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+15
25.6%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Shawn Asbury II) to the ODU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22INT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2525% → 23%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
24.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 1 yd to the ODU 21Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+10
23.6%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-7
25.1%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Owen Porter and Emmanuel Balogun for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23FG6 plays · 22 yds · 3:2480% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24DOWNS5 plays · 18 yds · 1:1916% → 14%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
16.4%
MARSHALL Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tyriek Bell) to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
17.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 1 yd to the ODU 41Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+2
16.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 2 yds to the ODU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25MISSED FG6 plays · 19 yds · 3:0591% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 26FUMBLE5 plays · 20 yds · 1:019% → 9%
Q4 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
9.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Javon Harvey for 15 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
10.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 3 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+2
9.2%
Hayden Wolff run for 2 yds to the Marsh 49 Hayden Wolff fumbled, recovered by Marsh TyQaze LeggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4494% → 95%
Q4 3:41
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+35
5.1%
John McConnell punt for 39 yds , Tobias Harris returns for 35 yds to the ODU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 28DOWNS8 plays · 19 yds · 2:027% → 6%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+15
7.3%
MARSHALL Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
8.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for no gain to the Marsh 41Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
8.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 11 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
11.0%
Hayden Wolff sacked by TyQaze Leggs for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 36Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+8
8.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 8 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+6
9.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 6 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 29END OF 4TH QUARTER5 plays · 43 yds · 1:5097% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 10:50
Rece Verhoff 23 yd FG GOOD
-9.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 3:07
Khalan Laborn run for 12 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST down
-6.2
KEY PLAY · Q2 5:51
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete
+5.8