2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreGASO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:37 · Ethan Sanchez 23 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:17: Jalen White run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +14.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:34: Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 22 yds for a TD, (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +16.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q3 9:46: Gerald Green run for 30 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +14.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:00: Gerald Green run for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +20.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:19: Blake Watson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +18.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 10:24GASO 4th & 3 at ODU 25, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snapGo for it44.3%52% to convertField goalTheir call44.3%−0.166% to makePunt43.7%−0.6average punt
- Q1 7:37ODU 4th & 2 at GASO 6, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snapGo for it56.4%52% to convertField goalTheir call56.2%−0.291% to makePunt55.0%−1.3average punt
- Q1 5:47GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snapGo for it43.6%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.6%average punt
- Q1 2:59ODU 4th & 4 at GASO 27, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snapGo for it56.7%48% to convertField goalTheir call56.6%−0.162% to makePunt55.0%−1.7average punt
- Q2 12:38ODU 4th & 10 at GASO 35, down 4Close callWent for it · 52.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.8%−0.130% to convertField goal52.9%45% to makePunt52.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 9:20GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 39, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snapGo for it46.5%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.9%average punt
- Q2 4:18ODU 4th & 5 at GASO 7, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snapGo for it51.3%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call51.4%91% to makePunt44.9%−6.5average punt
- Q3 8:48ODU 4th & 6 at ODU 34, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snapGo for it29.2%−1.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.4%average punt
- Q3 6:31GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 39, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snapGo for it70.4%−1.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.8%average punt
- Q3 6:31ODU 4th & 6 at GASO 18, down 11Close callWent for it · 29.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.8%−0.738% to convertField goal29.5%79% to makePunt21.2%−8.4average punt
- Q3 1:12GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 25, up 8Numbers favored punt by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 71.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.3%−2.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt72.6%average punt
- Q3 0:51ODU 4th & 10 at GASO 16, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snapGo for it25.9%−2.327% to convertField goalTheir call28.2%81% to makePunt15.6%−12.6average punt
- Q4 10:00ODU 4th & 2 at GASO 40, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.0%57% to convertField goal13.6%−2.434% to makePunt13.2%−2.8average punt
- Q4 2:42GASO 4th & 1 at ODU 37, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.6%70% to convertField goal80.9%−4.840% to makePunt79.5%−6.1average punt
- Q4 0:32GASO 4th & 1 at ODU 27, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.7%71% to convertField goal88.3%−0.462% to makePunt83.2%−5.5average punt
- Q4 0:01ODU 4th & 14 at ODU 25, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.4%17% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.4%−3.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 0:10GASO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.4%97% to makeGo for two46.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:17GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.4%97% to makeGo for two64.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:34ODU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.1%97% to makeGo for two44.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 9:46GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.3%97% to makeGo for two68.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:00GASO Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.6%97% to makeGo for two85.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:19ODU Touchdown, down 6 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call21.8%−1.097% to makeGo for two22.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASODrive 1MISSED FG10 plays · 50 yds · 4:3644% → 44%
ODUDrive 2MISSED FG6 plays · 69 yds · 2:4757% → 57%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
56.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 14 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
57.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isiah Paige for 2 yds to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+1
57.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 1 yd to the GeoSo 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5043% → 43%
Q1 5:47
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+23
57.3%
Anthony Beck II punt for 49 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 23 yds to the ODU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4FG7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4858% → 59%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
57.7%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Illegal Snap on BLACK, Xavier enforced (-5 Yards) to the ODU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4442% → 48%
Q1 2:54
3RD & 5
50
+15
57.2%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the right incomplete intended for BURGESS JR., Derwin thrown to the ODU25. PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on HARRIS, Tobias enforced 15 yards to the ODU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+29
52.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 29 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6DOWNS8 plays · 49 yds · 2:2254% → 53%
GASODrive 7PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 3:1847% → 47%
ODUDrive 8MISSED FG11 plays · 69 yds · 5:0253% → 52%
Q2 9:20
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+37
52.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 37 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+8
55.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 8 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
55.2%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9TD11 plays · 80 yds · 4:0150% → 68%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
48.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 6 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+6
48.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 6 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+27
47.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 27 yds to the ODU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
46.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 9 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q2 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+15
46.1%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass up the middle incomplete intended for BURGESS JR., Derwin thrown to the ODU0. PENALTY ODU Roughing the Passer on HARRIS, Deeve enforced 15 yards from the GSU00 to the GSU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · 23 yds · 0:0238% → 39%
ODUDrive 11TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:2637% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
36.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Javon Harvey for 9 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+15
38.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 15 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
38.6%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (NaJee Thompson) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
55.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 22 yds for a TD, (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4852% → 70%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
46.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 3 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
46.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 5 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
45.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 2 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+4
44.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 4 yds to the ODU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5532% → 30%
Q3 8:48
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+9
29.5%
Ethan Duane punt for 51 yds , Amare Jones returns for 9 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1769% → 71%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
30.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 8 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
29.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 4 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
29.5%
Anthony Beck II punt for 31 yds , Isiah Paige returns for no gain to the ODU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15FG11 plays · 52 yds · 4:0430% → 36%
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
29.2%
WOLFF, Hayden pass to the left incomplete intended for BELL, Marquez thrown to the GSU48. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on CANTEEN, Derrick enforced 15 yards to the ODU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 5
50
-15
32.2%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Chop Block (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
50
+28
32.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 28 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
33.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 6 yds to the GeoSo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16DOWNS4 plays · -9 yds · 1:1572% → 71%
Q3 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
27.4%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 25 fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Kyle VantreaseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17FG4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2135% → 42%
GASODrive 18TD13 plays · 77 yds · 5:0065% → 90%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+4
35.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 4 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+9
35.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 9 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
32.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 5 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+7
32.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 7 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+16
31.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 16 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+16
29.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 16 yds to the ODU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19TD13 plays · 73 yds · 4:4116% → 38%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
16.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isiah Paige for 6 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
17.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 8 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
17.0%
WOLFF, Hayden pass to the left incomplete intended for JENNINGS, Ali thrown to the GSU21. PENALTY GSU Holding ODU Holding , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+8
17.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 8 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
19.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 9 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+20
19.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Javon Harvey for 20 yds to the GeoSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20DOWNS17 plays · 43 yds · 4:4279% → 97%
ODUDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3111% → 9%
GASODrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:00
Gerald Green run for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
-20.2
TD · Q4 5:19
Blake Watson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+18
TD · Q3 13:34
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 22 yds for a TD, (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+16.4