Try the model
ARST

Arkansas State 26 at Old Dominion 29

ODU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:03 · Ethan Duane punt for 30 yds, downed at the ArkSt 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+21.0+10.50−10.5−21.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+12.6Home team on offense+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:27: B. Snead run for 4 yds for a TD, (D. Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +6.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:37: Dominic Zvada 44 Yd Field Goal — ARST win probability +7.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:54: Ali Jennings III 77 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Ethan Sanchez Kick) — ODU win probability +11.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:33: Zack Kuntz 7 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Obie Sanni Run for Two-Point Conversion) — ODU win probability +37.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:11: Timeout ARKANSAS ST, clock 02:11 — ODU win probability +15.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:34ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:05ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:40ARST 4th & 7 at ODU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:10ODU 4th & 10 at ARST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:02ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:03ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 22, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:57ARST 4th & 21 at ODU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:19ODU 4th & 2 at ARST 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%−1.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:19ARST 4th & 6 at ODU 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:37ARST 4th & 11 at ODU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:07ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:02ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 20, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−5.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:08ODU 4th & 22 at ODU 35, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−6.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:45ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:12ODU 4th & 4 at ARST 48, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:29ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 39, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.9 ptsPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−6.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:27ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.4%−4.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:15ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.7%−6.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:09ODU 4th & 10 at ARST 40, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    86.5%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 9:27ARST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:54ODU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:33ODU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2633% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
66.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 10 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
66.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-1
66.8%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
66.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
66.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:2967% → 67%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the ODU 30Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
66.7%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
66.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 2 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
66.6%
Ethan Duane punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:2533% → 34%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
66.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 6 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
66.5%
Brian Snead run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
66.5%
James Blackman run for 9 yds to the ODU 48Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
66.4%
Brian Snead run for 3 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
66.4%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
66.4%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
66.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
66.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 34 yds, downed at the ODU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:3066% → 66%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
66.3%
Tariq Sims run for 2 yds to the ODU 10Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+5
66.2%
Tariq Sims run for 5 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+21
66.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 21 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
66.5%
Tariq Sims run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 34Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
66.3%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+15
66.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordan Bly for 15 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
66.8%
Obie Sanni run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+16
66.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordan Bly for 16 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
67.0%
Obie Sanni run for no gain to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
67.0%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
66.8%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
65.6%
Ethan Sanchez 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:0835% → 36%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
65.4%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-3
65.4%
Brian Snead run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
65.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+15
66.2%
HANSON, Ryan punt 60 yards to the ODU12 downed. PENALTY ODU Roughing the Kicker on HAWKINS, Tre enforced 15 yards from the ASU28 to the ASU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
64.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
65.0%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+6
65.3%
James Blackman run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+1
64.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds , Tobias Harris returns for 1 yd to the ODU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5965% → 64%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-10
65.3%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ODU 9Similar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 13
OWN 10
+8
65.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 8 yds to the ODU 18Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+3
65.3%
Keshawn Wicks run for 3 yds to the ODU 21Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+1
65.0%
Isaiah Spencer run for 1 yd to the ODU 22Similar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
64.1%
Ethan Duane punt for 30 yds, downed at the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 4:0337% → 36%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
63.0%
Brian Snead run for 3 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
62.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 3 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
63.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 5 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
62.8%
Brian Snead run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+14
62.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 14 yds to the ODU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
62.3%
James Blackman sacked by Kris Trinidad for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
62.7%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the ODU 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 31
-8
63.6%
James Blackman sacked by Ryan Henry for a loss of 8 yards to the ODU 39Similar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 21
OPP 39
0
64.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tobias Harris at the ODU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8SF
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4765% → 62%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
64.5%
Tariq Sims run for 2 yds to the ODU 9Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 9
0
64.4%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 8
OWN 9
0
63.6%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Delay Of Game ( Yards) to the ODU 2Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 12
OWN 5
0
61.7%
Hayden Wolff pass incomplete, holding in the end zone for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:3839% → 47%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+42
60.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 42 yds to the ODU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
59.4%
Brian Snead run for 12 yds to the ODU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
52.9%
B. Snead run for 4 yds for a TD, (D. Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:0852% → 48%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
51.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isiah Paige for 11 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
52.2%
Obie Sanni run for 5 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+20
52.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isiah Paige for 20 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
53.5%
Obie Sanni run for no gain to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
53.4%
Obie Sanni run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+1
53.4%
Obie Sanni run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 2
OPP 31
-1
48.4%
Keshawn Wicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FG
13 plays · 42 yds · 5:4252% → 60%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
47.9%
Brian Snead run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+16
48.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 16 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
47.0%
James Blackman run for 5 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+11
47.0%
Johnnie Lang run for 11 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
46.9%
BLACKMAN, James pass to the right complete for 22 yards to FOREMAN, Jeff caught at the ODU16 and advanced to the ODU16, End of Play. PENALTY Before the snap, ASU Illegal Substitution on SMITH, Noah enforced 5 yards from the ODU38 to the ODU43. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+4
47.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 4 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-6
47.0%
James Blackman sacked by Devin Brandt-Epps for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 45Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 17
OPP 45
+11
47.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 11 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+9
48.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 9 yds to the ODU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
46.8%
Brian Snead run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 26Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
46.9%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
47.3%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
39.6%
Dominic Zvada 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:2536% → 35%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
36.2%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
36.1%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-1
35.7%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Dennard Flowers for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 21Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 11
OWN 21
+3
35.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 53 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for 3 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
32.2%
Johnnie Lang run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:0336% → 37%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
35.6%
Jordan Bly run for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 17Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+4
35.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 4 yds to the ODU 21Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+34
34.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 34 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
38.3%
Keshawn Wicks run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
37.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 32 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.7%
Keshawn Wicks 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1868% → 67%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
31.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 18 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
30.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 8 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+49
33.3%
Jeff Foreman 49 Yd pass from James Blackman (Dominic Zvada Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4137% → 49%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
36.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 23Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+77
48.8%
Ali Jennings III 77 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Ethan Sanchez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:4653% → 52%
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
47.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-15
47.2%
BLACKMAN, James pass to the right complete for 12 yards to EALY, Reagan caught at the ASU36 and advanced to the ASU44 (HAWKINS, Tre), out of bounds. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on TRAORE, Seydou enforced 15 yards to the ASU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 21
OWN 17
+3
48.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 3 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 12
OWN 26
+2
46.9%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 18
OWN 20
+19
48.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 52 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 19 yds to the ODU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:5451% → 44%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
51.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Obie Sanni for no gain to the ODU 47Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-2
50.6%
Obie Sanni run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 45Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 12
OWN 45
-10
46.9%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Ethan Hassler for a loss of 10 yards to the ODU 35Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 22
OWN 35
0
44.0%
Ethan Duane punt for 54 yds , returns for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2356% → 55%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.1%
Brian Snead run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
43.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Khyheem Waleed for 5 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
44.0%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+4
44.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 50 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 4 yds to the ODU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:3345% → 46%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
45.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isiah Paige for 9 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+15
47.9%
Keshawn Wicks run for 15 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
48.9%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
47.1%
Keshawn Wicks run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
49.4%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
45.7%
Ethan Duane punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
41.7%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
42.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:5559% → 69%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
40.8%
James Blackman run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
39.8%
James Blackman run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
40.3%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
40.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 7 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+3
36.4%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
34.8%
AJ Mayer run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+8
33.8%
Brian Snead run for 8 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
34.0%
Brian Snead run for 11 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
32.7%
Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds to the ODU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+6
32.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 6 yds to the ODU 23Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+23
31.3%
AJ Mayer 23 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3440% → 40%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
40.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 10 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
40.6%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
40.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Tariq Sims for 4 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+5
39.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 5 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
39.8%
Ethan Duane punt for 38 yds, downed at the ArkSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:3768% → 71%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
32.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 5 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
31.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+8
31.4%
AJ Mayer run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
29.4%
AJ Mayer run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 13
OWN 36
-7
29.5%
James Blackman sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:1944% → 81%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
43.8%
Isiah Paige run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
43.8%
Obie Sanni run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
41.0%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+15
35.2%
WOLFF, Hayden pass to the left incomplete intended for HARVEY, Javon thrown to the ASU1. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on HARRIS, Kenneth enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the ASU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
81.0%
Zack Kuntz 7 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Obie Sanni Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:1229% → 25%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
70.7%
AJ Mayer run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-5
70.6%
James Blackman sacked by Devin Brandt-Epps and Alonzo Ford Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 12
OWN 17
-5
72.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (John Mincey) to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+16
72.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 16 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+4
72.5%
AJ Mayer run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
69.5%
AJ Mayer run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
69.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mekhi Butler) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 19
OWN 23
+17
72.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 17 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
74.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ethan Miner) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:0290% → 90%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
90.0%
Keshawn Wicks run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-1
90.3%
Keshawn Wicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 9
OPP 39
-1
91.3%
Keshawn Wicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
90.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 38 yds, downed at the ArkSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0912% → 11%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
87.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+10
88.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 10 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
87.1%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+18
87.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Daverrick Jenkins for 18 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
85.3%
James Blackman sacked by R'Tarriun Johnson for a loss of 15 yards to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 25
OWN 18
+21
88.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 21 yds Reagan Ealy fumbled, recovered by ArkSt James BlackmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:33
Zack Kuntz 7 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Obie Sanni Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+37.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:11
Timeout ARKANSAS ST, clock 02:11
+15.3
TD · Q3 10:54
Ali Jennings III 77 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Ethan Sanchez Kick)
+11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com