2024 · Week 9 · Oct 24, 2024 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreGASO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · David Mbadinga run for 4 yds to the GASO 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:17: Colton Joseph pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 23 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez PAT BLOCKED) — ODU win probability +9.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:49: Colton Joseph pass complete to Pat Conroy for 56 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +12.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:51: JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 59 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GASO win probability +13.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:46: Colton Joseph pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +11.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:24: Aaron Young run for 9 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +7.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 1 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 12:54ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 45, tiedClose callPunted · 49.8% before the snapGo for it49.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:06GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snapGo for it49.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.0%average punt
- Q1 12:06GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snapGo for it49.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.0%average punt
- Q1 6:53GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snapGo for it45.7%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.7%average punt
- Q2 9:58GASO 4th & 13 at ODU 33, down 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snapGo for it18.2%−1.021% to convertField goalTheir call19.3%49% to makePunt18.6%−0.7average punt
- Q2 8:31ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 42, up 20Close callPunted · 80.9% before the snapGo for it81.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.2%−0.9average punt
- Q2 3:40ODU 4th & 12 at GASO 12, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snapGo for it71.1%−1.919% to convertField goalTheir call72.9%86% to makePunt65.1%−7.9average punt
- Q2 2:34GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 34, down 16Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 24.6% before the snapGo for it25.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.2%−1.2average punt
- Q3 9:14GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 34, down 30Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:07ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 45, up 30Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:26GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 16, down 30Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:37ODU 4th & 3 at GASO 21, up 31Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%51% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−<0.174% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 1:53ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 41, up 28Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 8:07ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.9%97% to makeGo for two52.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:17ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call62.0%97% to makeGo for two62.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:49ODU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.8%97% to makeGo for two71.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q2 7:51GASO Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.3%97% to makeGo for two31.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:46ODU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two88.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:24ODU Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:24ODU Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:24GASO Touchdown, down 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call0.5%97% to makeGo for two0.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:34GASO Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call0.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0647% → 47%
GASODrive 2PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 0:4853% → 53%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
47.0%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 10 yds to the GASO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
47.4%
Alex Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 30Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
47.4%
Alex Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3TD9 plays · 70 yds · 3:5947% → 52%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
47.3%
Colton Joseph sacked by Marc Stampley II for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 26 Colton Joseph fumbled, recovered by ODU Devin Roche , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+12
47.2%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Diante Vines for 12 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+20
47.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 20 yds to the GASO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
47.7%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 10 yds to the GASO 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
51.6%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Devin Roche for 8 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1249% → 48%
Q1 6:53
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+3
51.9%
Alex Smith punt for 48 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 3 yds to the ODU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5TD11 plays · 82 yds · 5:3652% → 62%
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+17
51.5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Pat Conroy for 17 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
52.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Myles Alston for 13 yds to the GASO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+23
61.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 23 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6FUMBLE6 plays · 38 yds · 2:1441% → 39%
ODUDrive 7TD1 play · 56 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
73.2%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Pat Conroy for 56 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8MISSED FG9 plays · 42 yds · 3:5126% → 21%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
73.7%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 30 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-10
72.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun French,JC pass incomplete short right to Burgess Jr.,Derwin thrown to ODU39 broken up by Thompson,Mario PENALTY GS Holding (Fromm,Tyler) 10 yards from ODU43 to GS47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+23
73.8%
JC French pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 23 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
72.0%
JC French run for 4 yds to the ODU 34 JC French fumbled, recovered by GASO JC FrenchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2779% → 80%
Q2 9:58
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+6
78.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 6 yds to the ODU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10TD3 plays · 62 yds · 0:4019% → 33%
ODUDrive 11FG11 plays · 63 yds · 4:1169% → 77%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
69.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 48 yds to the GASO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+8
69.8%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 8 yds to the GASO 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
70.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Joseph,Colton pass complete short right to Paige,Isiah caught at GS00, for 0 yards to the GS06 PENALTY ODU Pass Interference (Paige,Isiah) 15 yards from GS06 to GS21. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0627% → 26%
ODUDrive 13TD5 plays · 74 yds · 1:4878% → 90%
GASODrive 14END OF HALF10 plays · 35 yds · 0:4612% → 13%
GASODrive 15INT3 plays · 7 yds · 0:3411% → 12%
ODUDrive 16TD6 plays · 43 yds · 2:5891% → 98%
GASODrive 17PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:102% → 1%
Q3 9:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+9
98.6%
Alex Smith punt for 38 yds , Isiah Paige returns for 9 yds to the ODU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0799% → 99%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.8%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 3 yds to the ODU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:411% → 1%
Q3 5:26
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
99.2%
Alex Smith punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20TD6 plays · 55 yds · 2:0299% → 100%
Q3 5:26
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+4
99.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 5
50
+10
99.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Pat Conroy for 10 yds to the GASO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
99.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Joseph,Colton pass incomplete deep middle to Conroy,Pat thrown to GS09 PENALTY GS Holding (Williams,Cam) 10 yards from GS40 to GS30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21TD6 plays · 93 yds · 2:540% → 0%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
99.6%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 10 yds to the GASO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
99.5%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 11 yds to the GASO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+55
99.7%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 55 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22FG12 plays · 54 yds · 4:47100% → 100%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Duke,Bryce rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ODU33 (Williams,Cam) PENALTY ODU Holding (Woudsma,Maarten) 10 yards from ODU25 to ODU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henicle,Quinn pass incomplete deep right to Miller,Kyle thrown to GS41 PENALTY GS Offside (Locke,Trevon) 5 yards from ODU15 to ODU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23TD13 plays · 77 yds · 4:570% → 0%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
99.9%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 9 yds to the GASO 32Similar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
99.8%
Old Dominion Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Crutchfield) to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
99.8%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 9 yds to the ODU 23Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+22
99.8%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Josh Dallas for 22 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to OJ Arnold for 4 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 3:41100% → 100%
Q4 1:53
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Seamus Hall punt for 45 yds , DeAndre Buchannon returns for no gain to the GASO 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25END OF GAME3 plays · 16 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:51
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 59 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q2 13:49
Colton Joseph pass complete to Pat Conroy for 56 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+12.6
TD · Q2 0:46
Colton Joseph pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+11.1