Try the model
ECU

East Carolina 20 at Old Dominion 14

ODU
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:07 · Bryce Duke run for 2 yds to the ECU 17 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense−9.9Garbage-time factor−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2Score differential−5.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Blowout margin−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:42: Rahjai Harris run for 63 yds for a TD (Jake Garcia pass to Chase Sowell for Two-Point Conversion) — ECU win probability +20.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:11: Aaron Young run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +19.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:49: Bryce Duke run for 3 yds to the ODU 23 — ODU win probability +9.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:09: Andrew Conrad 50 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +10.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:26: Timeout Old Dominion, clock 02:26 — ECU win probability +9.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 9:28ODU 4th & 4 at ECU 44, down 6
    Close callPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:21ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 19, up 6
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08ODU 4th & 13 at ECU 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:56ECU 4th & 16 at ODU 49, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:37ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:06ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:14ODU 4th & 5 at ECU 48, up 1
    Close callPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:17ODU 4th & 8 at ECU 45, up 1
    Close callPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:30ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 44, up 1
    Close callPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:07ECU 4th & 5 at ODU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−9.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:07ODU 4th & 1 at ECU 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.3%−2.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−9.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:03ODU 4th & 24 at ODU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−6.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:09ECU 4th & 9 at ODU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:58ODU 4th & 7 at ECU 46, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%−3.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:57ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−1.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:32ODU 4th & 21 at ODU 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:53ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 49, up 6
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:53ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.1%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:45ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    44.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:24ODU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:42ECU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    58.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:11ODU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:1049% → 50%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
51.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
51.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
51.0%
Jake Garcia run for 2 yds to the ECU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
51.0%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
51.0%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 28Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+20
51.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 20 yds to the ECU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
51.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ODU 48Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+6
51.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 6 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
51.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Kerry King for 20 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
50.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 22 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1451% → 51%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
51.0%
Grant Wilson run for 2 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
51.2%
Grant Wilson run for no gain to the ODU 39Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+11
50.9%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Myles Alston for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
50
0
51.3%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
50
+8
51.2%
Aaron Young run for 8 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-2
51.3%
Aaron Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 44Similar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
51.1%
Seamus Hall punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0749% → 49%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
50.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 4Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+5
51.0%
Old Dominion Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the ECU 9Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+4
51.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 4 yds to the ECU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
50.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 16Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+3
50.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 19Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
51.0%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
50.8%
Luke Larsen punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:1351% → 50%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
51.2%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
51.1%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Myles Alston for 6 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+11
51.3%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for 11 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
51.5%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-3
51.4%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Myles Alston for a loss of 3 yards to the ECU 41Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
50.8%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
49.6%
Seamus Hall punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
49.9%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 4:1250% → 51%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-2
49.9%
Javious Bond run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 13Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+8
50.0%
Javious Bond run for 8 yds to the ECU 21Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+12
50.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 12 yds to the ECU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
49.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Casey Kelly for 4 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
49.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 3 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
49.2%
Jake Garcia run for 4 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
49.0%
Jake Garcia sacked by Jeremy Mack Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the ECU 39Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+18
49.6%
Javious Bond run for 18 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
48.9%
Javious Bond run for no gain to the ODU 43Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
48.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-6
49.0%
Jake Garcia sacked by Koa Naotala and Denzel Lowry for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 49Similar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
48.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 40 yds, downed at the ODU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1949% → 47%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
48.9%
Bryce Duke run for 3 yds to the ODU 12Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+5
48.9%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Diante Vines for 5 yds to the ODU 17Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+5
48.2%
WILSON, Grant pass to the right incomplete intended for HOUSTON, Demariyon thrown to the ODU32, clock 00:00. PENALTY ECU Offsides on MCKENZIE, Jaden enforced 5 yards from the ODU17 to the ODU22 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
48.9%
Grant Wilson sacked by Elijah Morris for a loss of 8 yards to the ODU 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 14
0
48.8%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 14
+10
48.2%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Pat Conroy for 10 yds to the ODU 24Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
47.4%
Seamus Hall punt for 45 yds, downed at the ECU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7INT
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:3853% → 49%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
46.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECU 32Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+8
46.9%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 8 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
46.1%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
45.9%
Jake Garcia sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the ECU 36 Jake Garcia fumbled, recovered by ECU , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+6
47.2%
Winston Wright Jr. run for 6 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+17
46.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 17 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
45.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
44.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 5 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
44.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the ODU 26Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
44.5%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-45
44.4%
Jake Garcia pass intercepted Jahron Manning return for 45 yds to the ECU 34Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
50.8%
DUKE, Bryce rush up the middle for no gain to the ECU34 (JOHNSON, D'Anta). PENALTY ODU Holding on WOUDSMA, Maarten enforced 10 yards from the ECU34 to the ECU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8TD
1 play · 34 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+44
57.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kelby Williams for 44 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1545% → 42%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
55.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
55.4%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 24Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
56.0%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
57.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 50 yds , Isiah Paige returns for no gain to the ODU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:5258% → 59%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
57.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for 5 yds to the ODU 22Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
57.9%
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ODU 26Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
57.2%
Grant Wilson run for 2 yds to the ODU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
58.0%
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+15
58.1%
WILSON, Grant pass deep to the left incomplete intended for PAIGE, Isiah thrown to the ECU41. PENALTY ECU Pass Interference on GIBSON, Gavin enforced 15 yards to the ODU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
59.6%
Aaron Young run for 2 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
59.5%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+3
58.4%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Bryce Duke for 3 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
58.9%
Seamus Hall punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11INT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4844% → 43%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
56.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 8 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
54.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
54.4%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 8 yards to the ECU 39 Rahjai Harris fumbled, recovered by ECU return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+3
56.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
57.1%
Jake Garcia pass intercepted Patrick Smith-Young return for no gain to the ODU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2561% → 61%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
60.9%
Aaron Young run for 2 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
61.2%
Grant Wilson pass intercepted Shavon Revel Jr. return for no gain to the ECU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:5643% → 43%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
57.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 25 yds to the ECU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
55.0%
Jake Garcia run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 44Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
55.8%
Jake Garcia run for no gain to the ECU 44Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
56.8%
Jake Garcia pass intercepted Will Jones II return for no gain to the ECU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4862% → 59%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
61.8%
Aaron Young run for 6 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-10
62.0%
Old Dominion Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ODU 45Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 14
OWN 49
-10
59.7%
Old Dominion Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ODU 48Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 15
OWN 48
-5
59.7%
Aaron Young run for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 43Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+12
58.6%
Aaron Young run for 12 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
59.2%
Seamus Hall punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15Uncategorized
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:1743% → 49%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
57.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 10 yds to the ECU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
57.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Casey Kelly for 11 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+31
54.6%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 31 yds to the ODU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
51.4%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
51.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ODU 25Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+19
53.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 19 yds to the ODU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
51.2%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the ODU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:2659% → 59%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
58.7%
Aaron Young run for 6 yds to the ODU 26Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
59.0%
Aaron Young run for 10 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
59.7%
Grant Wilson run for 7 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
61.3%
Aaron Young run for 2 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
60.4%
Aaron Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 44Similar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
59.1%
Seamus Hall punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4842% → 63%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
58.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 22Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+18
58.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 18 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
56.0%
Jake Garcia run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 39Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-2
57.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 37Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+63
37.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 63 yds for a TD (Jake Garcia pass to Chase Sowell for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3267% → 68%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
32.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ODU 19Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+1
32.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Casey Kelly for 1 yd to the ODU 18Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+3
33.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 3 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
31.9%
Andrew Conrad 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5631% → 50%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.2%
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the ODU 29Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+31
31.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Diante Vines for 31 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
34.2%
Aaron Young run for 6 yds to the ECU 34Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+6
35.6%
Aaron Young run for 6 yds to the ECU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
35.6%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-3
35.5%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Bryce Duke for a loss of 3 yards to the ECU 31Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+12
32.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Myles Alston for 12 yds to the ECU 19Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+2
32.6%
Bryce Duke run for 2 yds to the ECU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
35.6%
Bryce Duke run for 1 yd to the ECU 16Similar
Q3 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
35.6%
Grant Wilson run for 1 yd to the ECU 3Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
30.7%
Aaron Young run for 2 yds to the ECU 1Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.7%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20INT
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:1758% → 66%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
42.3%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
42.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECU 25Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+9
43.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Tyler Savage for 9 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
40.7%
Jake Garcia run for no gain to the ECU 34Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
41.5%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECU 37Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+29
41.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 29 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
36.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
36.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 7 yds to the ODU 25Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
36.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ODU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
34.8%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 4 yds to the ODU 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+4
34.8%
Jake Garcia run for 4 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+8
36.6%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Casey Kelly for 8 yds to the ODU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
34.3%
Jake Garcia pass intercepted, touchback. Jahron Manning return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 1:4643% → 34%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
43.4%
Bryce Duke run for 3 yds to the ODU 23Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
43.2%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-10
41.4%
WILSON, Grant scrambles up the middle for a gain of 17 yards to the ODU40, End of Play. PENALTY ODU Holding on MCNALLY, Keanon enforced 10 yards from the ODU23 to the ODU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 17
OWN 13
-7
41.1%
Grant Wilson sacked by Suirad Ware for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 6Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 24
OWN 6
0
36.8%
Seamus Hall punt for 47 ydsSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
34.4%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Darius Bell) to the ECU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22FG
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:5463% → 76%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
37.1%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+4
37.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 46Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+10
37.2%
GARCIA, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for WRIGHT JR., Winston thrown to the ODU47. PENALTY ODU Holding on HARRIS, Khian'Dre enforced 10 yards from the ECU46 to the ODU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
33.8%
HARRIS, Rahjai rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the ODU40 (SMITH-YOUNG, Patrick). PENALTY Before the snap, ECU Illegal Formation on MOORER, Parker enforced 5 yards from the ODU44 to the ODU49. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+10
35.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Anthony Smith for 10 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
33.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
32.2%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ODU 33Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
32.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ODU 32Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
34.4%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+50
24.4%
Andrew Conrad 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:1131% → 27%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.1%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
30.2%
Aaron Young run for 8 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
32.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Diante Vines for 3 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
34.2%
Aaron Young run for 2 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
34.0%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Aaron Young for 8 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
36.5%
Aaron Young run for 7 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-5
36.8%
Old Dominion Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the ECU 47Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+1
36.6%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd to the ECU 46Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
35.0%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
26.6%
Seamus Hall punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0180% → 83%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
19.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
18.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the ECU 29Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
18.9%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 29Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
20.0%
East Carolina Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the ECU 24Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
16.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 48 yds , Isiah Paige returns for no gain Old Dominion Penalty, Offensive Holding (Daevon Iles) to the ODU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:2524% → 20%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
24.0%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd to the ODU 27Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-4
23.1%
Grant Wilson sacked by Jaden McKenzie and Zakye Barker for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 23Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 13
OWN 23
-8
21.5%
Grant Wilson sacked by Mike Edwards III and Samuel Dankah for a loss of 8 yards to the ODU 15Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 21
OWN 15
0
19.9%
Seamus Hall punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:3390% → 91%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
9.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 48Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+1
8.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 49Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
8.9%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 49Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
8.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 27END OF GAME
11 plays · 56 yds · 1:5313% → 13%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
13.4%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
13.1%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
12.8%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 10
OWN 9
+12
12.2%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Diante Vines for 12 yds to the ODU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
14.3%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+12
14.0%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Myles Alston for 12 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
14.9%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kelby Williams for 8 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+5
17.3%
Grant Wilson run for 5 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
16.6%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Diante Vines for 6 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+4
19.9%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Aaron Young for 4 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
13.1%
Grant Wilson run for 9 yds to the ECU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:42
Rahjai Harris run for 63 yds for a TD (Jake Garcia pass to Chase Sowell for Two-Point Conversion)
-20.1
TD · Q3 4:11
Aaron Young run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+19
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com