2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:51 · Seamus Hall punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:48: Juan Powell 23 Yd Fumble Return (Kade Hensley Kick) — CCU win probability +12.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:02: Braydon Bennett run for 9 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +11.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:08: Braydon Bennett run for 4 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +12.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:44: Devin Roche run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) Colton Joseph fumbled, recovered by ODU — ODU win probability +23.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 7:56: Ethan Vasko pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 37 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +15.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ODU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 12:51ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snapGo for it37.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.6%average punt
- Q1 12:51CCU 4th & 13 at CCU 44, tiedClose callWent for it · 62.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.2%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt62.4%average punt
- Q2 9:58ODU 4th & 7 at CCU 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.5% before the snapGo for it40.0%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call40.2%89% to makePunt36.5%−3.7average punt
- Q2 6:13CCU 4th & 16 at CCU 35, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snapGo for it52.7%−2.615% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.3%average punt
- Q3 11:44ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 26, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snapGo for it19.7%−1.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.9%average punt
- Q3 7:05CCU 4th & 8 at ODU 13, up 11Close callWent for it · 81.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.9%−0.730% to convertField goal81.7%85% to makePunt75.0%−6.7average punt
- Q3 6:58CCU 4th & 2 at ODU 21, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.0%57% to convertField goal81.1%−0.974% to makePunt75.0%−6.9average punt
- Q4 13:47CCU 4th & 24 at CCU 21, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snapGo for it83.9%−3.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%average punt
- Q4 7:08ODU 4th & 6 at ODU 24, down 12Close callPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.4%38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:47CCU 4th & 28 at ODU 28, up 12Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snapGo for it94.6%−1.27% to convertField goalTheir call95.8%60% to makePunt93.5%−2.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ODU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 3:39ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.4%97% to makeGo for two41.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:45CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.7%97% to makeGo for two60.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:26ODU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.9%97% to makeGo for two54.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:15CCU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.8%97% to makeGo for two53.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:48CCU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.6%97% to makeGo for two65.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:02CCU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.3%97% to makeGo for two78.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:08CCU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:54ODU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.9%97% to makeGo for two12.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:44ODU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick27.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call26.1%−0.945% to convert
- Q4 7:56CCU Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 0:29ODU Touchdown, down 9 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call5.6%−0.197% to makeGo for two5.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0937% → 37%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
62.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Aaron Young for 4 yds to the ODU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 28 yds · 4:3063% → 63%
Q1 12:51
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+7
63.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 7 yds to the CCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
63.0%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cameron Wright) to the CCU 38Similar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
63.2%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3TD12 plays · 86 yds · 4:4238% → 44%
Q1 8:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
62.7%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Devin Roche for 12 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+5
62.5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Diante Vines for 5 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+16
62.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Diante Vines for 16 yds to the CCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
61.8%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Bryce Duke for a loss of 3 yards to the CCU 48Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+15
62.1%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Roughing the Passer on ANOKWURU, Clinton enforced (15 Yards) to the CCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
56.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Bryce Duke for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5458% → 64%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
58.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Cameron Wright for 46 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-1
58.2%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Tray Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 30Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 11
OPP 30
-10
57.2%
VASKO, Ethan pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for MCKIE, Senika thrown to the ODU0. PENALTY CCU Holding on DEL GRANDE, Nick enforced 10 yards from the ODU30 to the ODU40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 21
OPP 40
+32
56.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Cameron Wright for 32 yds to the ODU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
63.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Cane Berrong for 8 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5FG11 plays · 40 yds · 5:0241% → 43%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
59.4%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Myles Alston for 6 yds to the CCU 43Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
58.7%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 8 yds to the CCU 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+1
58.7%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 1 yd to the CCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 10 yds · 3:4558% → 54%
Q2 9:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
57.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Malick Meiga for 12 yds to the CCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-15
58.9%
VASKO, Ethan pass short to the right complete for 7 yards to DUPLESSIS, Kyre caught at the CCU50 and advanced to the ODU47, out of bounds. PENALTY CCU Pass Interference on MEIGA, Malick enforced 15 yards to the CCU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 20
OWN 31
+9
56.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 9 yds to the CCU 40Similar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
53.7%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7TD6 plays · 68 yds · 1:4746% → 56%
Q2 4:47
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+15
54.1%
HALL, Seamus punt 30 yards to the CCU29, fair catch by TAYLOR, Tray, clock 04:47. PENALTY CCU Personal Foul on RYAN, Braylon enforced 15 yards from the ODU41 to the CCU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
51.9%
Old Dominion Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Myles Alston) to the ODU 45Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 21
OWN 45
+55
44.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 55 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1343% → 55%
ODUDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD3 plays · -2 yds · 0:1247% → 35%
ODUDrive 10INT11 plays · 30 yds · 1:1934% → 32%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.7%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Delay Of Game (Naejaun Barber) to the ODU 30Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
64.7%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 6 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+12
64.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Diante Vines for 12 yds to the CCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
66.1%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 3 yds to the CCU 41Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-4
66.5%
Devin Roche run for 6 yds to the CCU 35 Old Dominion Penalty, Offensive Holding (Santana Saunders) to the CCU 45Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 11
OPP 45
-1
68.4%
Colton Joseph pass intercepted Wyatt Gedeon return for 1 yd to the CCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
69.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Tray Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12TD5 plays · 80 yds · 1:5366% → 81%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+58
66.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Cameron Wright for 58 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0922% → 20%
CCUDrive 14DOWNS10 plays · 52 yds · 4:3980% → 81%
Q3 11:44
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+10
79.7%
VASKO, Ethan pass short to the left incomplete intended for MEIGA, Malick thrown to the CCU39. PENALTY ODU Holding on ILES, Daevon enforced 10 yards from the CCU35 to the CCU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+40
80.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 40 yds to the ODU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 8
OPP 13
-5
80.6%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 18 Jeremy Mack Jr. fumbled, recovered by ODU Kris Trinidad K. Trinidad return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15FUMBLE2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0720% → 21%
CCUDrive 16TD10 plays · 29 yds · 3:5082% → 94%
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
82.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Malick Meiga for 8 yds to the ODU 21Similar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 15
OPP 23
-1
82.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Bryson Graves for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 24Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 16
OPP 24
-10
82.1%
VASKO, Ethan pass to the left complete for 20 yards to BENNETT, Braydon caught at the ODU14 and advanced to the ODU4 (GRIFFIN, Dywan). PENALTY CCU Holding on DEL GRANDE, Nick enforced 10 yards from the ODU24 to the ODU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 26
OPP 34
+30
81.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Kendall Karr for 30 yds Kendall Karr fumbled, recovered by CCU Malick Meiga M. Meiga return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:149% → 19%
CCUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 2:0785% → 85%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-10
85.1%
QB Keeper VASKO, Ethan rush up the middle for no gain to the CCU31, End of Play. PENALTY CCU Holding on HANSON, Joseph enforced 10 yards from the CCU31 to the CCU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:47
4TH & 24
OWN 21
+49
85.0%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 49 yds , Isiah Paige returns for no gain to the ODU 22 , returns for 1 yd to the ODU 22Similar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
85.3%
JOSEPH, Colton pass to the left incomplete intended for VINES, Diante thrown to the ODU33; QB hurried by BRUCE, Shane. PENALTY CCU Personal Foul on JOHNSON, Emmanuel enforced 15 yards from the ODU22 to the ODU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19TD10 plays · 78 yds · 3:0316% → 40%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
81.4%
Devin Roche run for 32 yds Old Dominion Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CCU 31Similar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-29
81.4%
JOSEPH, Colton pass up the middle complete for 29 yards to PAIGE, Isiah caught at the CCU18 and advanced to the CCU18 (FLETCHER, Tobias;WHITSON, Will), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY CCU Holding on EUBANKS, Courtney ODU Chop Block on CHANDLER II, DJ , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+30
83.3%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Myles Alston for 30 yds to the CCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.8%
Devin Roche run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) Colton Joseph fumbled, recovered by ODUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4877% → 95%
Q4 10:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+20
76.4%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Cane Berrong for 20 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
80.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Tray Taylor for 4 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-10
79.2%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jameson Tucker) to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
94.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 37 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:428% → 7%
Q4 7:08
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
92.6%
Seamus Hall punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tray Taylor at the CCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22FG14 plays · 33 yds · 4:2195% → 98%
Q4 7:08
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+8
95.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Zach Courtney for 8 yds to the CCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+39
96.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 39 yds to the ODU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
96.9%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the ODU 15Similar
Q4 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
-14
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the ODU 29 fumbled, recovered by CCU Ethan Vasko E. Vasko return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23TD14 plays · 75 yds · 2:181% → 9%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 5 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
99.0%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Myles Alston for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+15
98.9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Devin Roche for 15 yds to the CCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
98.8%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Isiah Paige for 6 yds to the CCU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 24END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
98.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at CCU29 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:44
Devin Roche run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) Colton Joseph fumbled, recovered by ODU
-23.4
TD · Q4 7:56
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 37 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
+15.4
TD · Q2 1:48
Juan Powell 23 Yd Fumble Return (Kade Hensley Kick)
+12.9