2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadHAMP aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreHAMP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:55 · Nick Rice 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:22: Elijah Davis run for 15 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +0.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- FG · Q1 4:55: Nick Rice 24 yd FG GOOD — ODU win probability +0.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:10: D.J. Mack Jr. run for 13 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +3.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:32: D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +2.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:15: D.J. Mack Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6HAMP made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:49HAMP 4th & 15 at HAMP 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it9.3%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q1 4:55ODU 4th & 7 at HAMP 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snapGo for it89.9%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call89.9%91% to makePunt89.0%−0.9average punt
- Q1 2:25HAMP 4th & 15 at HAMP 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q2 12:45HAMP 4th & 14 at HAMP 21, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it6.5%−1.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%average punt
- Q2 12:45ODU 4th & 2 at HAMP 6, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.1%52% to convertField goal92.7%−0.491% to makePunt90.5%−2.5average punt
- Q2 7:58HAMP 4th & 3 at HAMP 42, down 24Close callPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:53HAMP 4th & 5 at HAMP 30, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q3 14:03ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 32, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q3 14:03ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 32, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q3 9:20HAMP 4th & 1 at HAMP 48, down 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:19ODU 4th & 2 at HAMP 5, up 34Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%51% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−0.192% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 12:30HAMP 4th & 13 at HAMP 22, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 10:39ODU 4th & 7 at HAMP 17, up 37Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%80% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 10:39HAMP 4th & 2 at ODU 41, down 40Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.132% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:03HAMP 4th & 11 at ODU 40, down 40Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%27% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5HAMP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:22ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.5%97% to makeGo for two90.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:10ODU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two91.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:32ODU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:15ODU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:00ODU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:20HAMP Touchdown, down 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAMPDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 3:119% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2TD7 plays · 91 yds · 2:2790% → 91%
Q1 11:49
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+43
90.4%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 43 yds to the Hampt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 3PUNT7 plays · -21 yds · 2:0510% → 10%
Q1 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
90.5%
Duffey,Jett rush for 9 yards gain to the HAM34, out of bounds PENALTY HAM Holding (Watts,Kelvin) 10 yards from HAM25 to HAM15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-7
90.5%
HAMPTON Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Isaiah Robinson) to the Hampt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4FG11 plays · 42 yds · 2:2291% → 90%
Q1 7:17
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-5
90.5%
PENALTY ODU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from HAM22 to HAM27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+10
90.5%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Isiah Paige for 10 yds to the Hampt 17Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
90.1%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 2:2610% → 10%
ODUDrive 6TD8 plays · 92 yds · 3:1589% → 93%
HAMPDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:258% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8TD9 plays · 48 yds · 3:1394% → 96%
HAMPDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:345% → 5%
ODUDrive 10TD12 plays · 76 yds · 4:4396% → 99%
Q2 7:58
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+12
96.3%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 12 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
96.4%
PENALTY HAM Offside 5 yards from ODU43 to ODU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
96.5%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Stone Smartt for 10 yds to the Hampt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+26
96.5%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Isiah Paige for 26 yds to the Hampt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+3
96.4%
HAMPTON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Stanley Garner) to the Hampt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:221% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12FG12 plays · 77 yds · 1:5399% → 99%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
98.9%
Mack Jr.,D.J. pass incomplete to Smartt,Stone broken up by Rainey,Jaren PENALTY HAM Pass Interference (Rainey,Jaren) 15 yards from HAM49 to HAM34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+33
98.9%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 33 yds to the Hampt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:5799% → 99%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.1%
PENALTY HAM Offside (Matthews,Andy) 5 yards from ODU27 to ODU32. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 14DOWNS10 plays · 35 yds · 4:431% → 1%
Q3 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+5
99.3%
PENALTY ODU Offside (Jackson,Cory) 5 yards from HAM16 to HAM21. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15TD7 plays · 48 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 16TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
99.7%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 8 yds to the Hampt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.7%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Jadakis Bonds for 5 yds to the Hampt 41Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
99.7%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Jadakis Bonds for 10 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+24
99.7%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Jadakis Bonds for 24 yds for a TD, (Axel Perez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17FG13 plays · 70 yds · 5:01100% → 100%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 12 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+19
99.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 19 yds to the Hampt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Nigel Fitzgerald for 9 yds to the Hampt 34Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+12
99.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 12 yds to the Hampt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:490% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19FG5 plays · 26 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAMPDrive 20PUNT14 plays · 35 yds · 5:360% → 0%
ODUDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER8 plays · 18 yds · 5:03100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:10
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 13 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q2 9:32
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q2 3:15
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)
+2.4