2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreCLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:15 · Nick Rice 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:59: Luke Martin 8 Yd Interception Return (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — CLT win probability +8.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:49: Grant DuBose 9 Yd pass from Chris Reynolds (Jonathan Cruz Kick) — CLT win probability +8.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:06: Calvin Camp run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +18.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:25: Blake Watson 3 Yd Run (Nick Rice Kick) — ODU win probability +14.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:42: Blake Watson 2 Yd Run (Nick Rice Kick) — ODU win probability +20.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 2:43CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt22.0%−0.9average punt
- Q2 13:16CLT 4th & 4 at ODU 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.0%48% to convertField goal21.1%−0.940% to makePunt20.9%−1.0average punt
- Q2 3:37CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.836% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q2 0:15ODU 4th & 5 at CLT 25, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snapGo for it83.9%−0.941% to convertField goalTheir call84.8%66% to makePunt82.3%−2.4average punt
- Q3 12:46ODU 4th & 7 at ODU 41, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.4%−0.737% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.2%average punt
- Q3 9:05ODU 4th & 16 at ODU 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snapGo for it75.2%−2.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.8%average punt
- Q3 3:20CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt22.0%−2.1average punt
- Q4 13:09CLT 4th & 6 at ODU 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.7% before the snapGo for it18.5%−1.039% to convertField goalTheir call19.6%72% to makePunt9.0%−10.6average punt
- Q4 10:04CLT 4th & 25 at ODU 27, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snapGo for it23.1%−5.17% to convertField goalTheir call28.1%62% to makePunt18.8%−9.3average punt
- Q4 1:03CLT 4th & 16 at ODU 31, down 22Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.116% to convertField goal0.6%54% to makePunt0.4%−0.2average punt
- Q4 1:03CLT 4th & 16 at ODU 31, down 22Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.116% to convertField goal0.6%54% to makePunt0.4%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CLT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 9:15ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.0%97% to makeGo for two72.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:51ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.2%97% to makeGo for two78.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:11ODU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:45CLT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.3%97% to makeGo for two19.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:40ODU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:59CLT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.1%97% to makeGo for two15.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:49CLT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.5%97% to makeGo for two21.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:06CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.6%97% to makeGo for two34.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 3:25ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.5%97% to makeGo for two75.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:42ODU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.1%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−0.745% to convert
- Q4 3:49ODU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−0.645% to convert
- Q4 2:52ODU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1INT13 plays · 65 yds · 5:1128% → 30%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+5
72.0%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass to the right incomplete intended for SPENCER, Elijah thrown to the ODU10. PENALTY ODU Offsides on HARRIS, Deeve enforced 5 yards from the ODU43 to the ODU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
72.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 9 yds to the ODU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2TD2 plays · 11 yds · 0:3472% → 73%
CLTDrive 3INT9 plays · 36 yds · 4:0927% → 27%
ODUDrive 4TD8 plays · 64 yds · 2:1074% → 79%
Q1 5:01
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+17
73.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 17 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+22
74.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Stone Smartt for 22 yds to the Charl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
74.2%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) to the Charl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5DOWNS12 plays · 29 yds · 4:2723% → 22%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
77.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 6 yds to the Charl 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
77.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 7 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
77.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 5 yds to the ODU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6TD5 plays · 63 yds · 1:0581% → 88%
Q2 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+15
81.0%
WOLFF, Hayden pass to the left incomplete intended for KUNTZ, Zack broken up by WHISENHUNT, Justin at the CLT34. PENALTY CLT Pass Interference on WHISENHUNT, Justin enforced 15 yards to the CLT46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
87.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 46 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7TD4 plays · 63 yds · 1:2113% → 22%
Q2 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
86.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 9 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+32
86.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 32 yds to the ODU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
78.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0582% → 91%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 9 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
81.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 20 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
90.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 34 yds for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 3:5911% → 8%
ODUDrive 10INT TD5 plays · -2 yds · 0:3893% → 84%
Q2 3:37
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-1
92.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11MISSED FG9 plays · 45 yds · 2:3885% → 86%
Q2 0:22
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+3
86.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 3 yds to the Charl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 16 yds · 0:1514% → 14%
ODUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:1485% → 83%
Q3 12:59
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+4
84.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 4 yds to the ODU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5715% → 27%
ODUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4476% → 76%
Q3 9:05
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
75.7%
Ethan Duane punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Geovonte' Howard at the Charl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16TD7 plays · 56 yds · 2:5927% → 47%
Q3 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+11
72.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 11 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
72.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Jake Clemons for 22 yds to the ODU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
70.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 5 yds to the ODU 13Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
70.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 4 yds to the ODU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17TD7 plays · 74 yds · 2:3563% → 83%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
63.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 7 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+51
62.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 51 yds to the Charl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
68.2%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 10 yds to the Charl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18FG12 plays · 52 yds · 5:1124% → 33%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
75.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Jake Clemons for 3 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+18
76.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 18 yds to the ODU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
72.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 4 yds to the ODU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19INT2 plays · 1 yds · 0:4573% → 73%
CLTDrive 20FG12 plays · 13 yds · 2:1435% → 35%
Q4 12:18
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+12
65.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 12 yds to the ODU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
62.2%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass to the right incomplete intended for SPENCER, Elijah thrown to the ODU2. PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on CRAY, Roger enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards to the ODU12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-5
65.2%
REYNOLDS, Chris sacked for a loss of 8 yards at the ODU20 (ANTOINE, Frederik;HENDERSON, Jason). PENALTY Before the snap, CLT Delay Of Game enforced 5 yards from the ODU12 to the ODU17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 15
OPP 17
-10
67.8%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass to the right complete for 8 yards to BYRD, Shadrick caught at the ODU9 and advanced to the ODU9 (JONES, Terry), out of bounds. PENALTY CLT Holding on SA'O, Siah enforced 10 yards from the ODU17 to the ODU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2265% → 92%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
65.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ali Jennings III for 32 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
70.7%
WOLFF, Hayden pass to the right incomplete intended for KUNTZ, Zack thrown to the CLT39. PENALTY ODU Holding on THOMAS, Leroy enforced 10 yards from the CLT43 to the ODU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+11
67.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 11 yds to the Charl 42Similar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
71.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jordan Bly for 25 yds to the Charl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22FUMBLE4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0114% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23TD5 plays · 41 yds · 1:4594% → 98%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
93.7%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Illegal Snap enforced (TEAM) to the Charl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24FUMBLE RETURN TD3 plays · -12 yds · 0:523% → 1%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
96.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for a loss of 7 yards to the Charl 6 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Illegal Block (TEAM) to the Charl 3Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 20
OWN 3
+8
97.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Dom Shoffner for 8 yds to the Charl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25DOWNS8 plays · 40 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.3%
James Foster pass complete to Grant DuBose for 9 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+18
99.3%
James Foster pass complete to ChaVon McEachern for 18 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
99.3%
James Foster pass complete to Victor Tucker for 19 yds to the ODU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
99.3%
James Foster sacked by Chazz Wallace and Alonzo Ford Jr. for 0 yards to the ODU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:42
Blake Watson 2 Yd Run (Nick Rice Kick)
+20.1
TD · Q3 6:06
Calvin Camp run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
-18.9
TD · Q3 3:25
Blake Watson 3 Yd Run (Nick Rice Kick)
+14.4