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ARST

Arkansas State 19 at Louisiana 24

UL
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of GameTD-29.9UL 53.4%Warren Wand run for 1 yd for a TD,(Two-Point Conversion failed )AWAY 19 - HOME 24 · Q4 9:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:07 · Warren Wand run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense−0.7Pregame prior−2.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score differential+0.3Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:52: Taboris Lee 17 Yd Interception Return (Stevie Artigue Kick) — UL win probability +3.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  2. TD · Q2 8:29: Elijah McGuire 14 Yd pass from Anthony Jennings (Stevie Artigue Kick) — UL win probability +9.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:08: Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 34 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +16.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:24: Stevie Artigue 34 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +4.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:07: Warren Wand run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ARST win probability +29.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:11UL 4th & 20 at UL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:07ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:08UL 4th & 9 at UL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:41ARST 4th & 8 at UL 24, tied
    Close callWent for it · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:41UL 4th & 3 at UL 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 1 at UL 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:29ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:37UL 4th & 22 at UL 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−2.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:45ARST 4th & 1 at UL 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    42.6%−2.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00UL 4th & 3 at UL 25, up 7
    Close callPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:54ARST 4th & 3 at UL 3, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%−2.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−13.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:32ARST 4th & 20 at UL 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−2.4
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−5.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:32UL 4th & 9 at UL 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:57ARST 4th & 5 at UL 13, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−7.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:07UL 4th & 24 at UL 17, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−9.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:55ARST 4th & 6 at UL 48, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.7%−2.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:00UL 4th & 6 at ARST 48, up 5
    Close callPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%−0.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:09ARST 4th & 10 at UL 11, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−4.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−5.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:41ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:52UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:29UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:08UL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:07ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.5 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.6%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
36.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-9
36.7%
Justice Hansen sacked by Karmichael Dunbar for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+5
36.7%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
36.7%
Damon Foncham punt for 34 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
50
-7
37.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 38 to Al Riles for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 22
OWN 38
+2
37.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 20
OWN 40
0
37.4%
Anthony Jennings run for no gain to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
37.3%
Steven Coutts punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
38.2%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-1
38.2%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
38.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
38.5%
Damon Foncham punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Levarious Varnado at the LaLaf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
39.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-8
39.0%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 17
OWN 38
+8
38.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 8 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+13
38.5%
TEAM punt blocked by Johnston White blocked by Johnston White Steven Coutts run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:4362% → 64%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
38.4%
Justice Hansen run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
38.2%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
38.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 11 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
38.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+2
38.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 2 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+24
36.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 24 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
36.9%
Dion Ray run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
37.1%
Dion Ray run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
36.9%
Anthony Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
36.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
40.5%
Taboris Lee 17 Yd Interception Return (Stevie Artigue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8DOWNS
15 plays · 81 yds · 4:5260% → 59%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
40.5%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+15
40.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 15 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
40.3%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
40.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+12
39.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 12 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
39.4%
Justice Hansen run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
39.4%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 42 Justice Hansen fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Justice HansenSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+14
39.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 14 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
39.4%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
39.1%
Johnston White run for 20 yds to the LaLaf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
39.7%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
39.7%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.2%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.1%
Johnston White run for no gain to the LaLaf 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 4:4344% → 56%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
43.7%
Elijah McGuire run for no gain to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+15
43.6%
Jennings, Anthony sideline pass incomplete to Barnes, Keenan, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Taylor, Blaise) 15 yards to the UL16, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
43.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+11
43.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 11 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
44.2%
Anthony Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+12
43.8%
Anthony Jennings run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
45.0%
Darius Hoggins run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 1
50
+1
45.7%
Darius Hoggins run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+30
45.6%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 30 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
46.3%
Dion Ray run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-1
46.3%
Dion Ray run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+14
55.5%
Elijah McGuire 14 Yd pass from Anthony Jennings (Stevie Artigue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
53.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake Mack, broken up by Otha PetersSimilar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
53.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
53.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
54.3%
Damon Foncham punt for 47 yds, downed at the LaLaf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:4956% → 55%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
55.5%
Dion Ray run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
55.4%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+34
54.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 34 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
57.4%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Chris Odom for a loss of 9 yards to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 19
OWN 39
-1
56.1%
Anthony Jennings run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 20
OWN 38
-2
56.5%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Chris Odom for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 22
OWN 36
0
55.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:0443% → 41%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
57.3%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
56.6%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+6
57.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 6 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
56.4%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
57.4%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+13
58.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 13 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
55.4%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
54.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendall SandersSimilar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
56.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 6 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
58.9%
Damon Foncham punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
60.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
60.2%
Anthony Jennings run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+1
60.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
59.3%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Gabe Fuselier, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
57.9%
Steven Coutts punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:5342% → 45%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
58.5%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
56.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 3 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
56.8%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+10
56.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 10 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
55.3%
Johnston White run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+4
54.8%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
54.8%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+9
54.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 9 yds to the LaLaf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
54.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 5 yds to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
54.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q3 13:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
56.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 2 yds to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q3 8:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
55.1%
J.D. Houston 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:4659% → 76%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+42
59.4%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 42 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
75.9%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 34 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:3628% → 24%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
72.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 4 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+6
71.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 6 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
71.2%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+43
70.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 43 yds to the LaLaf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
67.9%
White, Johnston rush over left end for 1 yard to the UL13 (Walker, Tracy), PENALTY ASU holding (Mondie, Devin) 10 yards to the UL24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 20
OPP 24
0
69.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Sterling StowersSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 20
OPP 24
0
69.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris Murray, broken up by Savion BrownSimilar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 20
OPP 24
0
71.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 20
OPP 24
+41
76.1%
J.D. Houston 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
77.0%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Elijah McGuireSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-1
76.8%
Elijah McGuire run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 11
OWN 23
-5
75.6%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, delay of game (Anthony Jennings) to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 16
OWN 18
+9
75.6%
Jennings, Anthony sideline pass incomplete to Barnes, Keenan, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Taylor, Blaise) 9 yards to the UL27, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
77.0%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
76.8%
Anthony Jennings run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
75.8%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Keenan Barnes, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
74.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:2922% → 23%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
77.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 5 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+13
76.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
50
+4
75.5%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+28
75.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 28 yds to the LaLaf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
73.8%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-1
73.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+4
76.0%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
76.6%
J.D. Houston 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:3381% → 89%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
80.5%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Waylon Roberson for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+28
80.2%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 28 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
82.5%
Anthony Jennings run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+23
81.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 23 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
83.0%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Elijah McGuire, broken up by Xavier Woodson-LusterSimilar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+18
82.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 18 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
85.5%
Anthony Jennings run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Chris Humes) to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
85.3%
Jennings, Anthony sideline pass complete to Riles, Al for 9 yards to the ASU0, clock 11:23, PENALTY UL pass interference (Bradley, Ja'Marcus) 15 yards to the ASU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 24
+3
85.6%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Nick Byrne for 3 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+4
85.3%
Anthony Jennings run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
0
84.1%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Keenan Barnes, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+34
89.0%
Stevie Artigue 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1713% → 47%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
86.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 18 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
84.3%
Justice Hansen run for 16 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
83.0%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+38
83.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 38 yds to the LaLaf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.4%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · -1 yds · 0:0074% → 71%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
73.7%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 9 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+4
74.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
74.1%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Keenan BarnesSimilar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
73.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-10
72.2%
Jennings, Anthony rush over right tackle for 15 yards to the UL47, PENALTY UL holding (Horst, Grant) 10 yards to the UL22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 19
OWN 22
0
71.6%
Anthony Jennings run for no gain to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 19
OWN 22
-5
70.4%
Coutts, Steven punt 49 yards to the ASU29, Taylor, Blaise return to the ASU46, PENALTY UL false start (Byrne, Nick) 5 yards to the UL17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 24
OWN 17
0
70.6%
Steven Coutts punt for 66 yds, downed at the ArkSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0030% → 32%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
70.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 17 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
68.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 14 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
64.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete, broken up by Kevon PerrySimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-10
66.2%
Hansen, Justice middle pass complete to Mack, Blake for 20 yards to the UL32, PENALTY ASU holding (Mondie, Devin) 10 yards to the ASU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+10
70.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 10 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+4
67.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 4 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
67.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:1688% → 89%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
88.3%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Jake Swalley for a loss of 9 yards to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 19
OWN 39
0
87.9%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Al RilesSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 19
OWN 39
+13
86.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
88.7%
Steven Coutts punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25DOWNS
18 plays · 73 yds · 2:4515% → 12%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
85.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 9 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-5
81.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Joseph Bacchus) to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
84.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-Luper, broken up by Damar'ren MitchellSimilar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
86.1%
Justice Hansen run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
82.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Christian BookerSimilar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
83.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 9 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
80.4%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
50
0
79.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendall SandersSimilar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 10
50
+15
81.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 15 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
76.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 12 yds to the LaLaf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
75.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
76.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 12 yds to the LaLaf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
75.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Johnston WhiteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
76.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
80.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+4
87.7%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:07
Warren Wand run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-29.9
TD · Q3 8:08
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Al Riles for 34 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+16.5
TD · Q2 8:29
Elijah McGuire 14 Yd pass from Anthony Jennings (Stevie Artigue Kick)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com