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TOL

Toledo 31 at Arkansas State 10

ARST
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2016 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:10 · TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:58: Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +4.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:14: Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +11.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:03: Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +12.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:24: Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 13 — TOL win probability +7.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:09: Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 22 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 12TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 2 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:14ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:31TOL 4th & 8 at ARST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:31ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:17ARST 4th & 4 at TOL 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.9%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:51ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:17ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 25, down 11
    Close callPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:13TOL 4th & 14 at ARST 25, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−2.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−8.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:05ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:01ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:15ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 44, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ARST 4th & 2 at TOL 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:53TOL 4th & 2 at ARST 46, up 28
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:14ARST 4th & 2 at TOL 2, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:07TOL 4th & 14 at TOL 4, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:28ARST 4th & 5 at TOL 5, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 0 of 1TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 11:58TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:14TOL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:03TOL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:09TOL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:14ARST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
53.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
53.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 13 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
53.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
53.7%
Logan Woodside run for 2 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+4
53.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
50
0
53.7%
Nick Ellis punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
54.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
54.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Blake Mack for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+3
54.0%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
54.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Christian Booker for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+3
54.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Christian Booker for 3 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
54.0%
Chad Voytik pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+6
53.8%
Cameron Echols-Luper punt for 68 yds , Corey Jones returns for 6 yds to the Toled 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:3446% → 46%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
54.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 7Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 7
0
54.3%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 7Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+17
54.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 17 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
54.2%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
54.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 8 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
54.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 40 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
53.5%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
53.5%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
53.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
53.8%
Jameson Vest 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
54.3%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-3
54.2%
Chad Voytik run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+5
53.8%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 5 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+3
53.6%
Damon Foncham punt for 48 yds , Corey Jones returns for 3 yds to the Toled 34 Corey Jones fumbled, forced by Justin Clifton, recovered by Toled Kadar HollmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
54.0%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-5
53.5%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to THOMPSON, Cody for 26 yards to the ASU36 (Hunter, Money), PENALTY TOLEDO ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TOLEDO33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
54.3%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+17
54.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
50
+12
53.1%
Terry Swanson run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 42 Terry Swanson fumbled, forced by Chris Humes, recovered by ArkSt Chris HumesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:4456% → 56%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
55.6%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Christian Booker for 11 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
56.0%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
55.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Olasunkanmi Adeniyi) to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
56.3%
Chad Voytik run for 8 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+1
56.3%
Chad Voytik run for 1 yd to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 1
OPP 23
-3
55.8%
Christian Booker run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
56.3%
J.D. Houston 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:1944% → 51%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
55.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 11 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
54.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+3
54.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+19
54.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
53.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+1
53.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+9
54.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
53.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
53.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
48.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
50.4%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
50.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-6
49.4%
Justice Hansen sacked by Treyvon Hester for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
49.1%
Damon Foncham punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:1951% → 63%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
48.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 14 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
48.4%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
48.5%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+10
48.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 10 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
47.5%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-1
47.5%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+11
48.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 11 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
47.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+7
47.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
48.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5238% → 35%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
38.0%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-5
37.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Blake Mack) to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 13
OWN 15
0
37.8%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 13
OWN 15
+10
37.3%
Warren Wand run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
35.2%
Cameron Echols-Luper punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:0564% → 76%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
36.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey Jones, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
36.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 9 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
36.3%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
36.0%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
36.0%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
23.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:4732% → 27%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+14
31.5%
Warren Wand run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
32.1%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+3
32.0%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+20
30.6%
Chad Voytik run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-11
33.2%
Chad Voytik sacked by Olasunkanmi Adeniyi for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 21
OWN 30
+18
32.4%
Warren Wand run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
26.9%
Chad Voytik pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.0%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
23.1%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
22.8%
Chad Voytik sacked by Josh Teachey for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
22.6%
Damon Foncham punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:5880% → 88%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
19.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 13 yds to the Toled 48 TOLEDO Penalty, HL (-10 Yards) to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 7
OWN 38
-3
19.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+44
19.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 44 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
18.2%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-2
18.7%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 14
OPP 25
0
16.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+42
12.1%
Jameson Vest 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.8%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
16.7%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
17.0%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
18.1%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
18.2%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-6
18.1%
Chad Voytik sacked by John Stepec for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
17.0%
Damon Foncham punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 2:1591% → 97%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
9.1%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+54
9.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 54 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
8.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
8.2%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+22
2.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 22 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
3.0%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+4
2.7%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
2.7%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Dijon Paschal, broken up by Kadar HollmanSimilar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 9
OWN 19
+5
2.7%
Damon Foncham punt for 41 yds , Corey Jones returns for 5 yds to the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
2.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 5
50
+49
2.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 49 yds Cody Thompson fumbled, forced by Xavier Woodson-Luster, recovered by ArkSt Damon FonchamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:152% → 1%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
2.3%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Christian Booker, broken up by Ja'Wuan WoodleySimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
2.1%
Warren Wand run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
2.3%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
2.2%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
2.2%
Chad Voytik run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
2.3%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
2.4%
Wand, Warren rush for 8 yards to the TOLEDO46 (TAAFE, Tyler), PENALTY ASU HL (Mondie, Devin) 10 yards to the ASU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+12
2.3%
Chad Voytik run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
2.2%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 6
50
+4
2.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Justin McInnis for 4 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
1.1%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
0.9%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
0.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 7 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
0.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete, broken up by Cody BrownSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
0.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
6 plays · 94 yds · 1:511% → 3%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
0.5%
Chad Voytik run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+83
0.5%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Blake Mack for 83 yds to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
0.7%
Chad Voytik run for 1 yd to the Toled 4Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.7%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Armond Weh-WehSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
0.7%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the Toled 2Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.3%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds for a TD, (J.D. Houston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
2.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
2.2%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 8
OWN 10
-5
2.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 5Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 13
OWN 5
-1
2.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 4Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 14
OWN 4
+24
2.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 41 , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for 24 yds to the Toled 28 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (10 Yards) to the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
2.8%
Voytik, Chad pass incomplete, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference 15 yards to the TOLEDO26, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
3.1%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Chris Murray for 11 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
3.0%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
3.0%
Cameron Echols-Luper run for 7 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
3.0%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
3.0%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.0%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the Toled 1Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
3.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Devin Mondie) to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
2.9%
Chad Voytik run for 1 yd to the Toled 5Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
2.9%
Chad Voytik pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 76 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
1.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 9
0
1.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for no gain to the Toled 9Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+10
1.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 10 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
1.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
1.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
1.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
1.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+55
1.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 42 yds to the ARKST 26 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Blaise Taylor) to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 13
OPP 16
-3
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:03
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q2 6:14
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-11
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:24
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 13
-7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com