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ARST

Arkansas State 35 at Troy 3

TROY
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2016 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:30 · Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 16 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Home team on offense−53.2Score differential−46.6Pregame prior+1.9Garbage-time factor−18.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−9.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:02: Kendall Sanders 8 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (J.D. Houston Kick) — ARST win probability +9.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:02: Sawyer Williams kickoff for 61 yds — TROY win probability +3.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:40: Chris Humes 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (J.D. Houston Kick) — ARST win probability +12.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:24: Chad Voytik 4 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick) — ARST win probability +17.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:59: Johnston White 24 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick) — ARST win probability +16.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:54ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:27ARST 4th & 7 at TROY 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:25TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:33ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:11TROY 4th & 7 at ARST 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:00ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:00TROY 4th & 10 at ARST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:46ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:27TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:30ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 26, down 3
    Close callPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 10:23ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:43TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  13. Q2 4:30ARST 4th & 5 at TROY 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    30.0%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:40TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 41, down 4
    Close callPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:39TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:08TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:59TROY 4th & 4 at ARST 7, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    -1.9%−5.1
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:02ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 44, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:04TROY 4th & 12 at ARST 25, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−2.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:30ARST 4th & 1 at TROY 27, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 3:02ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:40ARST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:24ARST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:59ARST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:11ARST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 1:4226% → 26%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
74.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 6 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-3
73.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+5
73.9%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete, PENALTY TROY offside 5 yards to the ARKST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
73.8%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
73.7%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
73.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
73.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 11
OWN 37
-5
73.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 16
OWN 32
+16
73.8%
Damon Foncham punt for 38 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 16 yds to the Troy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
73.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 10 yds Emanuel Thompson fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Cody BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0327% → 27%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
73.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 7 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-2
73.2%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+7
73.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 7 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
72.9%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
72.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendall SandersSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
72.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
73.0%
Damon Foncham punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:5473% → 72%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
73.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 2 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 8
OWN 9
0
73.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jabir FryeSimilar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+11
72.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 11 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
73.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
72.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Encroachment (Dee Liner) to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
72.7%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
72.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
72.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
72.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 36 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4328% → 27%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
72.2%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
72.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
72.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
72.6%
Damon Foncham punt for 32 yds, downed at the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0473% → 72%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
72.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
72.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+9
72.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sidney Davis for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
72.8%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+1
72.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+4
71.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
71.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0029% → 29%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
71.2%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
70.7%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
71.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+5
71.4%
Damon Foncham punt for 32 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:5073% → 72%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
72.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 11 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
72.5%
Josh Anderson run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
72.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Sam LettonSimilar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
72.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
72.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Josh AndersonSimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
71.9%
Ryan Kay 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0328% → 27%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
72.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
72.9%
Damon Foncham punt for 56 yds, downed at the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1472% → 70%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
71.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
71.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for no gain to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+6
70.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 6 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+1
70.4%
Ryan Kay punt for 50 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 25 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the ArkSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3028% → 28%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
71.7%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+5
71.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 5 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+5
72.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 5 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
72.3%
Damon Foncham punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
72.8%
Andre Flakes run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35 Andre Flakes fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Money HunterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5229% → 27%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.1%
Johnston White run for no gain to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
71.2%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-5
71.9%
Justice Hansen sacked by Demetrius Cain for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
72.6%
Damon Foncham punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:2771% → 70%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
71.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+8
71.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 8 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
72.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-1
71.5%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
71.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
70.2%
Ryan Kay punt for 39 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:3129% → 43%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
70.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 12 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
70.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 11 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
69.3%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+9
68.9%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
68.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 6 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-1
68.2%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
68.6%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+31
69.6%
Cameron Echols-Luper pass complete to Chris Humes for 31 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
67.1%
Johnston White run for no gain to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
67.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendall Sanders for 1 yd to the Troy 8Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
57.5%
Kendall Sanders 8 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (J.D. Houston Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2062% → 61%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
61.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+8
60.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 8 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
61.9%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
61.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 51 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17END OF HALF
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:3239% → 44%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
60.9%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+1
58.4%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+3
58.5%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
57.8%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
55.8%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
44.8%
Chris Humes 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (J.D. Houston Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4745% → 42%
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
44.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
44.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
43.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
42.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:0858% → 78%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
42.4%
Warren Wand pass incomplete to Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
42.5%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+39
42.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 39 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
40.6%
Warren Wand run for 12 yds to the Troy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
39.4%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.8%
Chad Voytik 4 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:0126% → 25%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
25.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 5Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+28
25.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 28 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
25.9%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
25.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
25.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
24.8%
Ryan Kay punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:5878% → 95%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
21.8%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+45
21.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 45 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
4.8%
Johnston White 24 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 72 yds · 3:454% → 3%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
4.3%
Silvers, Brandon pass incomplete, PENALTY ARKST pass interference (Wagner, Nehemiah) 6 yards to the TROY30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
4.3%
Silvers, Brandon pass incomplete, PENALTY ARKST pass interference (Woodson-Luster, Xavier) 6 yards to the TROY36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TROY.Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
4.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 26 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
4.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Encroachment (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 5
OPP 33
0
4.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+9
4.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
4.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Hiram Velez for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+12
3.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 12 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
3.8%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
3.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 6 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
3.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+3
3.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 3 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:4397% → 98%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
3.0%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+1
2.9%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+29
2.5%
Chad Voytik run for 29 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
2.1%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Murray, Chris, PENALTY TROY pass interference 6 yards to the ARKST45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST.Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
2.0%
Chad Voytik run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
2.0%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
1.9%
Chad Voytik run for no gain to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+5
1.9%
TROY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+4
1.7%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 6
OWN 49
-5
1.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
1.8%
Damon Foncham punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25INT
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:472% → 1%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
1.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 18 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
1.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 20 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
1.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+19
1.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 19 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
1.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
1.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-2
1.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 12
OPP 25
0
1.2%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Justin Clifton return for no gain to the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26TD
17 plays · 91 yds · 10:3299% → 100%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
1.4%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+1
1.2%
Chad Voytik run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+13
1.1%
Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.9%
Chad Voytik run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
0.9%
Warren Wand run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
0.7%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+13
0.7%
Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
0.6%
Chad Voytik run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+5
0.5%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
0.4%
Chad Voytik run for 2 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
0.4%
Chad Voytik run for 3 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
0.3%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 5 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
0.3%
Chad Voytik run for 1 yd to the Troy 27Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+16
0.2%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 16 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
0.2%
Daryl Rollins-Davis run for 5 yds to the Troy 6Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
0.1%
Daryl Rollins-Davis 6 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 27INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
0.1%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+18
0.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 18 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
0.1%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 36Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 16
OWN 36
-2
0.1%
B.J. Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 18
OWN 34
+5
0.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cameron Prince) to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+16
0.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 16 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
0.1%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Justin Clifton return for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 24
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:24
Chad Voytik 4 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)
-17.6
TD · Q3 8:59
Johnston White 24 Yd Run (J.D. Houston Kick)
-16.5
TD · Q3 14:40
Chris Humes 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (J.D. Houston Kick)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com