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ARST

Arkansas State 24 at Memphis 42

MEM
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.3MEM 69.6%(01:47) #34 C.Van Andel field goalattempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #90D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith), clock01:44AWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 1:44
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:44 · (01:47) #34 C.Van Andel field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith), clock 01:44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+18.5Home team on offense−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:26: (03:35) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #5 K.Clay caught at ASU37, for 75 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:26, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith) — ARST win probability +11.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:40: (00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep right to #11 J.Hayes caught at ASU00, for 31 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #34 W.Simmons) — MEM win probability +13.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:19: (12:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 13 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:19, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #34 W.Simmons) — MEM win probability +9.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:12: (04:16) #31 T.Carter rush right for 1 yard gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:12 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith) — ARST win probability +15.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q3 3:25: (03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 74 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:25, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #34 W.Simmons) — MEM win probability +13.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:36MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:57ARST 4th & 9 at MEM 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:44ARST 4th & 16 at MEM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q3 6:16MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 0:22ARST 4th & 7 at MEM 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  6. Q4 11:15ARST 4th & 24 at ARST 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  7. Q4 9:29MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:02MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:42ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:37MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:26ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:40MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:19MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:12ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:25MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:31MEM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:2726% → 27%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.6%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU30 (#90 T.Burton; #0 I.Foster)Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
73.4%
(14:16) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU35, for 9 yards to the ASU39 (#3 D.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
73.3%
(13:44) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #2 C.Cobb thrown to ASU42 PENALTY MEM Roughing The Passer (#0 I.Foster) 15 yards from ASU39 to MEM46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
73.1%
(13:40) #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at MEM30, for 16 yards to the MEM30 (#2 C.Logan Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
72.9%
(12:56) Shotgun #2 C.Cobb rush right for 3 yards loss to the MEM33 (#22 Z.Ruffin)Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+5
72.8%
(12:15) Shotgun #2 C.Cobb rush left for 5 yards gain to the MEM28 (#3 D.Smith), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
72.6%
(11:31) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass intercepted by #3 D.Smith at MEM07 QB hurried by #22 Z.Ruffin #3 D.Smith return 0 yards to the MEM07, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4073% → 72%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
72.8%
(11:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MEM14 (#15 B.Greil; #16 J.Drew)Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+2
72.7%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #11 J.Hayes caught at MEM12, for 2 yards to the MEM16 (#6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 1
OWN 16
0
72.4%
(10:26) Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 0 yards to the MEM16 (#8 B.Barnes)Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+2
72.2%
(09:42) #30 H.Tuck punt 53 yards to the ASU31 #10 J.Bonelli return 2 yards to the ASU33 (#32 J.Snyder)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:2828% → 28%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
72.3%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush right for 9 yards gain to the ASU42 (#9 M.Montgomery)Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+2
71.7%
(08:54) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush right for 2 yards gain to the ASU44 (#2 C.Logan Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
71.7%
(08:28) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MEM47 (#0 I.Foster)Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
71.2%
(07:49) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM45 (#56 K.Miles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
71.0%
(07:04) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep left to #11 T.Little thrown to MEM18Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
71.0%
(06:58) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MEM44 (#9 M.Montgomery; #22 Z.Ruffin)Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
71.0%
(06:12) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right thrown to MEM40 QB hurried by #90 T.BurtonSimilar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
71.6%
(06:03) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 30 yards to the MEM14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4INT
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2172% → 71%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
71.5%
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MEM12 (#10 T.Carter; #92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 12
OWN 12
-17
71.4%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass intercepted by #0 D.Henderson at ASU48 #0 D.Henderson return 17 yards to the MEM35, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5FG
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:3730% → 30%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
70.3%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush right for 1 yard gain to the MEM34 (#0 I.Foster)Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+10
70.1%
(04:45) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #16 J.Burrell caught at MEM29, for 10 yards to the MEM24 (#9 M.Montgomery), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
69.8%
(04:14) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM22 (#11 J.McKinney; #9 M.Montgomery)Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+15
69.5%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MEM17 (#25 J.Clayton) PENALTY ASU Tripping (#70 M.Itete) 15 yards from MEM22 to MEM37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 23
OPP 37
+8
70.1%
(03:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #10 J.Bonelli caught at MEM29, for 8 yards to the MEM29, out of bounds at MEM29Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 15
OPP 29
-1
70.0%
(02:31) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #22 E.Jolly caught at MEM34, for 1 yard loss to the MEM30 (#0 I.Foster)Similar
Q1 1:44
4TH & 16
OPP 30
+48
69.6%
(01:47) #34 C.Van Andel field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith), clock 01:44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3469% → 73%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
69.0%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush left for 8 yards gain to the MEM33 (#0 D.Henderson)Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
69.8%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM36 (#92 E.Sherman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
69.1%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM39 (#23 R.Stevens III; #6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
69.6%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MEM44 (#54 R.Reese)Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+36
69.3%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 36 yards gain to the ASU20 (#5 F.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
70.3%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush left for 6 yards gain to the ASU14 (#6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+6
70.2%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush right for 6 yards gain to the ASU08 (#5 F.Hamilton; #4 M.Shahid), 1ST DOWN. #22 N.Nelson injured on the playSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
70.1%
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU03 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
70.0%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush right for 1 yard loss to the ASU04 (#54 R.Reese; #15 B.Greil)Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
69.1%
(12:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short left to #14 A.O'Callaghan thrown to ASU00 PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (#5 F.Hamilton) 2 yards from ASU04 to ASU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.3%
(12:02) Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:02 #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #34 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1828% → 39%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
71.6%
(12:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush right for 1 yard gain to the ASU26 (#0 I.Foster; #5 A.Foster) PENALTY ASU Holding (#50 W.Saxton) 10 yards from ASU25 to ASU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
71.6%
(11:33) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #27 J.Lee caught at ASU10, for 0 yards to the ASU15 (#2 C.Logan Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+10
71.8%
(11:25) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #17 J.Bush caught at ASU22, for 10 yards to the ASU25 (#22 Z.Ruffin), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
72.2%
(10:52) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #10 J.Bonelli caught at ASU36, for 20 yards to the ASU45 (#5 A.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
70.0%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush right for 23 yards gain to the MEM32, out of bounds at MEM32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
68.0%
(09:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 22 yards gain to the MEM10 (#0 I.Foster), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
67.5%
(09:07) #31 T.Carter rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MEM01 (#6 D.King)Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.2%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 T.Carter rush middle for 0 yards to the MEM01 (#97 J.Gatling; #11 J.McKinney)Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.9%
(07:43) #5 K.Clay rush right for 1 yard gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:42, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:4763% → 74%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+40
63.0%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep middle to #12 B.Kluse caught at MEM49, for 40 yards to the ASU45 (#13 K.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
65.7%
(07:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #7 D.Hayden caught at ASU45, for 3 yards to the ASU42 (#5 F.Hamilton) PENALTY MEM Illegal Block in Back (#12 B.Kluse) 10 yards from ASU42 to MEM48Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 17
OWN 48
+24
63.7%
(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #1 T.Chapman caught at ASU34, for 24 yards to the ASU28 (#8 B.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
66.3%
(06:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU26 (#92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-2
66.0%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 2 yards loss to the ASU28 (#15 B.Greil; #23 R.Stevens III)Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+13
64.8%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush left for 13 yards gain to the ASU15, out of bounds at ASU15, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
66.1%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU10 (#16 J.Drew; #10 T.Carter)Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
65.8%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush left for 3 yards gain to the ASU07 (#10 T.Carter)Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
73.8%
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #14 A.O'Callaghan caught at ASU04, for 7 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:37, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #34 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
60.7%
(03:35) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #5 K.Clay caught at ASU37, for 75 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:26, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4061% → 73%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.4%
(03:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush right for 1 yard gain to the MEM26 (#23 R.Stevens III)Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
61.0%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #6 J.Carter caught at MEM29, for 18 yards to the MEM44, out of bounds at MEM44, 1ST DOWN. #20 T.Grant injured on the playSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
63.3%
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM47 (#10 T.Carter; #13 K.Williams)Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+7
59.7%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush left for 7 yards gain to the ASU46 (#5 F.Hamilton; #92 E.Sherman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
60.3%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ASU40 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+9
59.9%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush right for 9 yards gain to the ASU31 (#23 R.Stevens III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
73.3%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep right to #11 J.Hayes caught at ASU00, for 31 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #34 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.2%
(00:37) Kneel down by #9 T.Owens at ASU24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2971% → 84%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
71.4%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #5 S.Burnside caught at MEM43, for 26 yards to the ASU49 (#0 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
73.7%
(14:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU47 (#54 R.Reese)Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+22
73.8%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #0 H.Tipton caught at ASU46, for 22 yards to the ASU25 (#0 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
74.4%
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ASU14 (#6 A.McGhee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
74.2%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush left for 1 yard gain to the ASU13 (#6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
84.1%
(12:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 13 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:19, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #34 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13INT
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:3718% → 20%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
82.1%
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU34, for 10 yards to the ASU35 (#2 C.Logan Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
81.8%
(11:34) Shotgun #9 T.Owens sacked for loss of 8 yards to the ASU27 (#90 T.Burton, #14 J.Tapp)Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+15
82.6%
(10:48) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #10 J.Bonelli caught at ASU30, for 15 yards to the ASU42 (#5 A.Foster)Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+6
81.4%
(10:03) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU45, for 6 yards to the ASU48 (#22 Z.Ruffin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
81.4%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MEM48 (#22 Z.Ruffin)Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
80.9%
(09:03) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM46 (#9 M.Montgomery; #14 J.Tapp)Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+26
81.4%
(08:17) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete deep left to #3 H.Summers caught at MEM20, for 26 yards to the MEM20, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
79.9%
(07:39) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short left to #11 T.Little thrown to MEM16Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
80.2%
(07:33) #9 T.Owens pass intercepted by #22 Z.Ruffin at MEM21 QB hurried by #93 J.Ishmael, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0785% → 84%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
84.8%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush left for 1 yard gain to the MEM22 (#15 B.Greil)Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+2
84.9%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM24 (#6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
84.2%
(06:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short left thrown to MEM27 QB hurried by #92 E.Sherman and #15 B.GreilSimilar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+5
83.7%
(06:25) #30 H.Tuck punt 53 yards to the ASU23 #10 J.Bonelli return 5 yards to the ASU28 (#7 D.Malcolm Jr.; #34 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:5317% → 35%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
83.4%
(06:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush left for 7 yards gain to the ASU35 (#9 M.Montgomery)Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+40
82.7%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete deep left to #3 H.Summers caught at MEM35, for 40 yards to the MEM25, out of bounds at MEM25, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
80.3%
(05:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at MEM21, for 6 yards to the MEM19 (#3 D.Smith)Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+18
81.0%
(04:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #2 C.Cobb caught at MEM02, for 18 yards to the MEM01 (#2 C.Logan Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.5%
(04:16) #31 T.Carter rush right for 1 yard gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:12 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 0:3374% → 87%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
73.6%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MEM26 (#15 B.Greil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
87.0%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 74 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:25, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #34 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:5814% → 15%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.2%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush left for 10 yards gain to the ASU35 (#2 C.Logan Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
85.5%
(02:50) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep left to #3 H.Summers thrown to MEM35 PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (#2 C.Logan Jr.) 15 yards from ASU35 to ASU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
50
+4
83.7%
(02:45) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MEM46 (#15 E.Kinsler; #25 J.Clayton)Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
83.9%
(02:00) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at MEM47, for 0 yards to the MEM46 (#0 I.Foster)Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+4
83.4%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MEM42 (#9 M.Montgomery; #15 E.Kinsler)Similar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+5
84.5%
(00:30) PENALTY ASU False Start 5 yards from MEM42 to MEM47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
85.2%
(00:26) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 22 yards to the MEM25, out of bounds at MEM25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4987% → 89%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.4%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #1 T.Chapman caught at MEM29, for 4 yards to the MEM29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
87.5%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM31 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
87.2%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #0 H.Tipton caught at MEM34, for 9 yards to the MEM40 (#4 M.Shahid), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
88.8%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MEM48 (#0 D.Henderson; #92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
89.0%
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass intercepted by #15 B.Greil at ASU23, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5713% → 10%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
86.8%
(13:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete deep right to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU43, for 22 yards to the ASU45, out of bounds at ASU45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-8
84.5%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens sacked for loss of 8 yards to the ASU37 (#15 E.Kinsler)Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 18
OWN 37
-6
87.6%
(12:16) Shotgun #9 T.Owens sacked for loss of 6 yards to the ASU31 (#14 J.Tapp)Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 24
OWN 31
0
89.3%
(11:30) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short left to #5 K.Clay thrown to ASU34 QB hurried by #15 E.KinslerSimilar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 24
OWN 31
0
89.6%
(11:17) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 50 yards to the MEM19 fair catch by #17 A.Brown at MEM19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2490% → 90%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
90.0%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #11 J.Hayes caught at MEM18, for 2 yards to the MEM21 (#0 D.Henderson)Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+3
89.9%
(10:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM24 (#20 T.Grant)Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 5
OWN 24
-8
90.4%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MEM16 (#23 R.Stevens III)Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
89.9%
(09:33) #30 H.Tuck punt 34 yards to the MEM50, out of bounds at ASU50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1012% → 12%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
50
0
88.4%
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short middle to #2 C.Cobb thrown to MEM45Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 10
50
+9
88.3%
(09:22) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MEM41 (#2 C.Logan Jr.)Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
88.1%
(08:54) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM39 (#11 J.McKinney; #14 J.Tapp), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
88.6%
(08:33) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush left for 1 yard gain to the MEM38, out of bounds at MEM38. #70 M.Itete injured on the playSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-11
88.5%
(08:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass intercepted by #5 A.Foster at MEM22 #5 A.Foster return 11 yards to the MEM33 (#3 H.Summers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:4292% → 99%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
92.1%
PENALTY MEM False Start (#13 J.Davis) 5 yards from MEM33 to MEM28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+4
91.8%
(08:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MEM32 (#23 R.Stevens III)Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+17
91.9%
(07:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 17 yards gain to the MEM49 (#16 J.Drew; #54 R.Reese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
93.4%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ASU47 (#92 E.Sherman; #23 R.Stevens III)Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
93.8%
(06:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush right for 4 yards gain to the ASU43 (#16 J.Drew; #92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
94.1%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU42 (#92 E.Sherman; #23 R.Stevens III)Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+5
93.8%
PENALTY ASU Offside (#92 E.Sherman) 5 yards from ASU42 to ASU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
94.7%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush left for 4 yards gain to the ASU33 (#3 N.Flores)Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+9
95.3%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ASU24 (#15 B.Greil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
98.9%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 24 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:31, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #34 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23INT
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
98.2%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU35, for 20 yards to the ASU45 (#25 J.Clayton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
98.1%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #5 K.Clay caught at ASU45, for 10 yards to the MEM45 (#0 I.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
98.1%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #17 J.Bush caught at MEM40, for 5 yards to the MEM40 (#0 I.Foster; #25 J.Clayton)Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-26
97.9%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass intercepted by #3 D.Smith at MEM18 broken up by #5 A.Foster #3 D.Smith return 26 yards to the MEM44, out of bounds at MEM44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24END OF HALF
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:5399% → 100%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.0%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM47 (#23 R.Stevens III)Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
99.5%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Noland rush left for 0 yards to the MEM47, out of bounds at MEM47Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+23
99.5%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 23 yards gain to the ASU30 (#3 N.Flores; #5 F.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
99.6%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU28 (#54 R.Reese)Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-4
99.6%
(00:22) Kneel down by #3 A.Noland at ASU32 for loss of 4 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:12
(04:16) #31 T.Carter rush right for 1 yard gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:12 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)
-15.5
TD · Q2 0:40
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep right to #11 J.Hayes caught at ASU00, for 31 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #34 W.Simmons)
+13.4
TD · Q3 3:25
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 74 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:25, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #34 W.Simmons)
+13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com