Try the model
WGA

West Georgia 7 at Arkansas State 52

ARST
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadWGA aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreWGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:59 · (05:05) #5 K.Clay rush left for 3 yards gain to the UWG27 (#3 C.Bekee; #39 L.Naquin), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+24.0Home team on offense+33.1Score differential+25.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.9Blowout margin+9.8Garbage-time factor+10.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:50: (12:56) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at UWG35, for 28 yards to the UWG00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:50, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith) — ARST win probability +1.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:28: (05:33) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete deep right to #10 J.Bonelli caught at UWG00, for 30 yards to the UWG00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:28, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith) — ARST win probability +3.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:19: Noah Flores 68 Yd Fumble Return (Clune Van Andel Kick) — ARST win probability +0.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:05: (00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short middle to #1 T.Lockley caught at ASU18, for 37 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:05, 1ST DOWN #38 L.Lopez kick attempt good (H: #94 N.Harris, LS: #49 J.Wagner) — ARST win probability +1.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WGA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:26: (08:27) #5 K.Clay rush right for 5 yards gain to the UWG00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:26 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith) — ARST win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:24WGA 4th & 1 at WGA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:12WGA 4th & 11 at WGA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:08WGA 4th & 14 at WGA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:11WGA 4th & 22 at WGA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:59ARST 4th & 1 at WGA 30, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:43ARST 4th & 4 at WGA 8, up 31
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:38WGA 4th & 1 at WGA 34, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:05WGA 4th & 8 at WGA 49, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 12:50ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:28ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:05ARST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:26ARST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:49ARST Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:31ARST Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WGADrive 1PUNT
17 plays · 22 yds · 5:403% → 4%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.3%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Hurst pass complete short right to #17 M.Leverett caught at UWG30, for 5 yards to the UWG30 (#0 D.Henderson)Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
97.2%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 S.Gates rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UWG32 (#54 R.Reese; #20 T.Grant)Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
97.1%
(13:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Hurst pass complete short left to #1 T.Lockley caught at UWG30, for 6 yards to the UWG38 (#16 J.Drew; #10 T.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
97.0%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 S.Gates rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UWG42 (#6 A.McGhee; #16 J.Drew)Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
96.9%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Montgomery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UWG44 (#34 M.McShan; #92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
96.8%
(12:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Montgomery rush left for 3 yards gain to the UWG47 (#23 R.Stevens III)Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
96.7%
(11:33) #3 L.Marble rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UWG48 (#54 R.Reese; #92 E.Sherman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
96.6%
PENALTY UWG Delay Of Game 5 yards from UWG48 to UWG43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+7
96.6%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Montgomery rush left for 11 yards gain to the ASU46 (#6 A.McGhee; #23 R.Stevens III) PENALTY UWG Holding (#58 J.Hunt) 7 yards from UWG43 to UWG36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 25
OWN 33
0
96.5%
(10:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Hurst pass incomplete short middle to #2 J.Montgomery thrown to ASU50 QB hurried by #10 T.CarterSimilar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 22
OWN 33
+11
96.5%
(10:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Atkins rush right for 11 yards gain to the UWG47 (#23 R.Stevens III), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 11
OWN 47
0
96.4%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Hurst pass incomplete short right to #9 A.Sefa thrown to ASU35 broken up by #6 A.McGhee QB hurried by #94 J.JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
96.4%
(09:12) #8 C.Hurst punt 50 yards to the ASU03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5896% → 96%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
96.4%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush right for 5 yards gain to the ASU08 (#20 M.Johnson)Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+7
96.4%
(08:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ASU15 (#7 S.French), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
96.2%
(08:07) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU16 (#6 E.Barnes)Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
96.1%
(07:31) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU15, for 5 yards to the ASU21 (#7 S.French; #18 S.Ferguson)Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-1
95.9%
(06:58) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ASU20 (#15 D.Epps)Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
95.7%
(06:15) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 40 yards to the UWG40, out of bounds at UWG40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WGADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:514% → 5%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
95.6%
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Hurst rush left for 3 yards gain to the UWG43 (#23 R.Stevens III; #16 J.Drew)Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+8
95.5%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 S.Gates rush right for 8 yards gain to the ASU49 (#16 J.Drew; #23 R.Stevens III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
95.3%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 S.Gates rush left for 8 yards gain to the ASU41 (#6 A.McGhee), out of bounds PENALTY UWG Holding (#78 S.Crawford) 10 yards from ASU49 to UWG41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+2
95.4%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Monfort rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UWG43 (#14 D.Parker; #92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+4
95.2%
(04:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Hurst pass complete short right to #16 B.Jones caught at UWG47, for 4 yards to the UWG47 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 14
OWN 47
0
95.1%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Hurst pass incomplete deep right to #1 T.Lockley thrown to ASU22 QB hurried by #92 E.ShermanSimilar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 14
OWN 47
+11
95.2%
(03:18) #94 N.Harris punt 48 yards to the ASU05 #10 J.Bonelli return 11 yards to the ASU16 (#7 S.French)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 5:1195% → 96%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
95.2%
(03:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU22, for 9 yards to the ASU25 (#0 M.Lewis; #20 M.Johnson)Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
95.1%
(02:28) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 0 yards to the ASU25 (#3 C.Bekee; #98 N.Spurrier)Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
94.8%
(01:53) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU27 (#98 N.Spurrier; #16 T.Hollinger), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
94.8%
(01:16) Shotgun #0 N.Burris rush left for 8 yards gain to the ASU35 (#18 S.Ferguson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+11
94.8%
(00:44) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #10 J.Bonelli caught at ASU35, for 11 yards to the ASU46 (#39 L.Naquin; #11 C.Reid), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
94.7%
(00:03) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #22 E.Jolly caught at ASU41, for 1 yard loss to the ASU45 (#10 I.Nyenabo)Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+17
94.5%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Cobb rush right for 17 yards gain to the UWG38 (#7 S.French), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
94.6%
(14:17) No Huddle #5 K.Clay rush right for 2 yards gain to the UWG36 (#14 A.Ruffin)Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+8
94.4%
(13:39) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #16 J.Burrell caught at UWG42, for 8 yards to the UWG28 (#16 T.Hollinger; #0 M.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
95.5%
(12:56) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at UWG35, for 28 yards to the UWG00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:50, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WGADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 2:335% → 5%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.1%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Monfort rush left for 3 yards gain to the UWG28 (#92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
95.0%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Montgomery rush left for 10 yards gain to the UWG38 (#6 A.McGhee), out of bounds PENALTY UWG Holding (#9 A.Sefa) 10 yards from UWG28 to UWG18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-3
95.0%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Hurst sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UWG12 (#92 E.Sherman, #54 R.Reese)Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+1
95.0%
(11:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Hurst pass complete short right to #15 J.Henry caught at UWG13, for 1 yard to the UWG13 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
94.9%
(10:16) #94 N.Harris punt 44 yards to the ASU43 fair catch by #10 J.Bonelli at ASU43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 4:3594% → 97%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
94.4%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #22 E.Jolly caught at ASU41, for 7 yards to the ASU50 (#14 A.Ruffin)Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 3
50
0
94.2%
(09:30) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep right to #3 H.Summers thrown to UWG26 QB hurried by #14 A.RuffinSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 3
50
+11
94.0%
(09:24) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush right for 11 yards gain to the UWG39 (#18 S.Ferguson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.1%
(08:48) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #5 K.Clay caught at UWG40, for 0 yards to the UWG39 (#6 E.Barnes; #7 S.French)Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
94.0%
(08:03) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush right for 9 yards gain to the UWG30 (#9 J.Chambliss)Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+5
93.7%
(07:21) Shotgun #31 T.Carter rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UWG25 (#6 E.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
93.8%
(06:40) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UWG18 (#11 C.Reid) PENALTY ASU Holding (#68 T.Smith) 10 yards from UWG25 to UWG35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+5
93.5%
(06:12) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UWG30 (#39 L.Naquin)Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+30
96.7%
(05:33) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete deep right to #10 J.Bonelli caught at UWG00, for 30 yards to the UWG00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:28, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WGADrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD
13 plays · 43 yds · 4:025% → 8%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Daniel pass incomplete deep right to #3 L.Marble thrown to ASU35Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
95.1%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete deep right to #7 D.Daniel caught at UWG45, for 23 yards to the UWG48 (#15 B.Greil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
93.8%
(04:58) PENALTY UWG False Start 5 yards from UWG48 to UWG43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+5
94.2%
(04:40) PENALTY UWG False Start (#66 F.Pelling) 5 yards from UWG43 to UWG38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+9
94.1%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short left to #14 J.Prince caught at UWG42, for 9 yards to the UWG47 (#3 N.Flores), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+5
93.8%
(03:33) PENALTY UWG False Start (#14 J.Prince) 5 yards from UWG47 to UWG42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+13
93.9%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short right to #16 B.Jones caught at UWG45, for 13 yards to the ASU45 (#23 R.Stevens III; #8 B.Barnes)Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+5
92.8%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short middle to #9 A.Sefa caught at ASU40, for 5 yards to the ASU40 (#8 B.Barnes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
92.2%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short left to #7 D.Daniel caught at ASU40, for 11 yards to the ASU29 (#16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
91.6%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass incomplete short left to #17 M.Leverett thrown to ASU12 broken up by #5 F.HamiltonSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+68
91.7%
Noah Flores 68 Yd Fumble Return (Clune Van Andel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WGADrive 8TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 1:077% → 6%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
92.9%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short middle to #4 J.Schuchts caught at UWG45, for 5 yards to the UWG45 (#6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
92.4%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass incomplete deep left to #6 B.Atkins thrown to ASU30Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+5
92.7%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short middle to #1 T.Lockley caught at UWG50, for 5 yards to the UWG50 (#16 J.Drew; #5 F.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
50
0
92.2%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass incomplete short left to #6 B.Atkins thrown to ASU36Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
50
0
92.6%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass incomplete deep left to #16 B.Jones thrown to ASU30 QB hurried by #23 R.Stevens IIISimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
50
+5
92.8%
PENALTY UWG Delay Of Game (#11 C.FitzGerald) 5 yards from UWG50 to UWG45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+18
93.2%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short right to #1 T.Lockley caught at ASU37, for 18 yards to the ASU37 (#3 N.Flores), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
92.5%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
92.5%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass incomplete deep left to #19 J.Cineas thrown to ASU02 broken up by #3 N.FloresSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+37
94.0%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short middle to #1 T.Lockley caught at ASU18, for 37 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:05, 1ST DOWN #38 L.Lopez kick attempt good (H: #94 N.Harris, LS: #49 J.Wagner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:3496% → 96%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.6%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush right for 5 yards gain to the ASU30 (#16 T.Hollinger)Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
95.6%
(14:24) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #5 K.Clay caught at ASU25, for 4 yards to the ASU34 (#14 A.Ruffin; #18 S.Ferguson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
95.5%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 T.Carter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU35 (#14 A.Ruffin; #3 C.Bekee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
95.6%
(13:04) Shotgun #31 T.Carter rush left for 1 yard loss to the ASU34 (#18 S.Ferguson)Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
95.5%
(12:28) Shotgun #9 T.Owens sacked for loss of 13 yards to the ASU21 (#33 H.Harris), fumble by #9 T.Owens recovered by UWG #3 C.Bekee at ASU21, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WGADrive 11INT TD
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:066% → 2%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
94.0%
(12:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass incomplete short middle to #16 B.Jones thrown to ASU05 broken up by #23 R.Stevens III PENALTY UWG Holding (#78 S.Crawford) 10 yards from ASU21 to ASU31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 20
OPP 31
0
94.4%
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass incomplete deep right to #9 A.Sefa thrown to ASU10 QB hurried by #54 R.ReeseSimilar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+5
94.6%
(12:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short middle to #1 T.Lockley caught at ASU26, for 5 yards to the ASU26 (#4 M.Shahid)Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 15
OPP 26
-91
98.1%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass intercepted by #5 F.Hamilton at ASU09 #5 F.Hamilton return 91 yards to the UWG00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:13 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WGADrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.0%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Montgomery rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UWG31 fumbled by #2 J.Montgomery at UWG30 forced by #24 J.Ofor recovered by ASU #15 B.Greil at UWG31, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:3198% → 100%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
98.4%
(11:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep left to #2 C.Cobb thrown to UWG08Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+16
98.4%
(10:55) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush right for 29 yards gain (6) to the UWG02 (#16 T.Hollinger) PENALTY ASU Holding (#3 H.Summers) 10 yards from UWG25 to UWG35Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 14
OPP 35
+4
98.4%
(10:30) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UWG31 (#14 A.Ruffin; #7 S.French)Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+15
98.4%
(09:48) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep right to #3 H.Summers thrown to UWG00 PENALTY UWG Pass Interference (#13 S.Cummings) 15 yards from UWG31 to UWG16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
98.5%
(09:42) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UWG11 (#96 S.Fluellyn)Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
98.5%
(09:03) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UWG05 (#3 C.Bekee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.7%
(08:27) #5 K.Clay rush right for 5 yards gain to the UWG00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:26 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WGADrive 14INT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
(08:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short right to #1 T.Lockley caught at UWG22, for 5 yards to the UWG30 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+19
99.7%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short left to #17 M.Leverett caught at UWG29, for 9 yards to the UWG39 (#6 A.McGhee) PENALTY UWG Holding (#1 T.Lockley) 10 yards from UWG39 to UWG29Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
99.8%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short middle to #6 B.Atkins caught at UWG27, for 5 yards to the UWG34 (#16 J.Drew), out of bounds PENALTY UWG Holding (#24 C.Monfort) 10 yards from UWG29 to UWG19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
99.8%
(07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass incomplete short right to #27 S.Gates thrown to UWG23Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
99.8%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass intercepted by #23 R.Stevens III at UWG39 QB hurried by #54 R.Reese, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15FG
12 plays · 31 yds · 5:08100% → 100%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.8%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UWG37 (#3 C.Bekee)Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
99.8%
(06:21) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at UWG37, for 7 yards to the UWG30 (#2 D.Gibson)Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
99.8%
(05:40) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush left for 0 yards to the UWG30 (#3 C.Bekee)Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
99.8%
(05:05) #5 K.Clay rush left for 3 yards gain to the UWG27 (#3 C.Bekee; #39 L.Naquin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.8%
(04:23) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #18 R.Stevens thrown to UWG18Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+13
99.8%
(04:17) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #81 D.Boozer caught at UWG14, for 13 yards to the UWG14 (#17 D.Harden), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
99.8%
(03:45) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush right for 3 yards gain to the UWG11 (#0 M.Lewis) PENALTY ASU Holding declined ASU Holding (#84 R.Linder) 10 yards from UWG14 to UWG24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 20
OPP 24
0
99.8%
(03:20) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep right to #0 N.Burris thrown to UWG00 broken up by #16 T.Hollinger QB hurried by #3 C.BekeeSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+2
99.8%
(03:14) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UWG22 (#3 C.Bekee)Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 18
OPP 22
+14
99.8%
(02:29) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at UWG18, for 14 yards to the UWG08 (#2 D.Gibson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
99.9%
(01:46) #34 C.Van Andel field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith), clock 01:43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WGADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 S.Gates rush right for 4 yards gain to the UWG29 (#9 K.Moore), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Monfort rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UWG34 (#9 K.Moore; #98 S.Woods)Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
(00:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass incomplete short left to #7 D.Daniel thrown to UWG35 broken up by #8 B.BarnesSimilar
Q3 0:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
(00:41) #94 N.Harris punt 36 yards to the ASU30 fair catch by #10 J.Bonelli at ASU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:48100% → 100%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
99.8%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush right for 10 yards gain to the ASU40 (#10 I.Nyenabo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU45 (#15 D.Epps)Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
99.9%
(14:22) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush left for 7 yards gain to the UWG48 (#15 D.Epps), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.9%
(13:44) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UWG45 (#2 D.Gibson)Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
99.9%
(13:08) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UWG35 (#17 D.Harden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
(12:27) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UWG29 (#39 L.Naquin)Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+8
99.9%
(11:49) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush left for 8 yards gain to the UWG21 (#10 I.Nyenabo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
99.9%
(11:06) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush right for 9 yards gain to the UWG12 (#39 L.Naquin; #0 M.Lewis)Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+8
99.9%
(10:31) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UWG04 (#3 C.Bekee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
(09:51) Shotgun #7 D.Dickey rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UWG00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:49 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WGADrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:340% → 0%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Monfort rush left for 2 yards gain to the UWG27 (#24 J.Ofor)Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
100.0%
(09:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Monfort rush left for 7 yards gain to the UWG34 (#19 J.Reed III)Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
100.0%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Monfort rush left for 1 yard gain to the UWG35 (#17 M.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
100.0%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short right to #88 C.Dixon caught at UWG34, for 7 yards to the UWG42 (#24 J.Ofor)Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
100.0%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass incomplete deep left to #16 B.Jones thrown to ASU36 PENALTY ASU Offside (#24 J.Ofor) 5 yards from UWG42 to UWG47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
100.0%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 N.Odeniyi rush right for 1 yard gain to the UWG48 (#19 J.Reed III; #98 S.Woods)Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+4
100.0%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 N.Odeniyi rush right for 4 yards gain to the ASU48 (#42 S.Williams)Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-3
100.0%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 N.Odeniyi rush left for 3 yards loss to the UWG49 (#34 M.McShan)Similar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
100.0%
(05:11) #94 N.Harris punt 51 yards to the ASU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:33100% → 100%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
100.0%
(05:04) Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU23 (#33 H.Harris; #22 R.Ogletree) PENALTY ASU Holding (#77 G.Fortson) 10 yards from ASU20 to ASU10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+48
100.0%
(04:30) Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush middle for 48 yards gain to the UWG42 (#10 I.Nyenabo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
100.0%
(03:57) Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UWG35 (#17 D.Harden; #21 T.Brewer)Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+2
100.0%
(03:18) Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UWG33 (#8 J.Speight; #21 T.Brewer)Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+33
100.0%
(02:37) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush right for 33 yards gain to the UWG00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:31, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WGADrive 20END OF HALF
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Marble rush right for 7 yards gain to the UWG32 (#18 M.Weedon)Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Washington rush middle for 0 yards to the UWG32 (#44 S.Hultz)Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
100.0%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Marble rush left for 3 yards gain to the UWG35 (#18 M.Weedon), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
100.0%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Marble pass complete short right to #13 J.Staples caught at UWG34, for 9 yards to the UWG44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
100.0%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Washington rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UWG46 (#44 S.Hultz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:28
(05:33) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete deep right to #10 J.Bonelli caught at UWG00, for 30 yards to the UWG00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:28, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)
+3.2
TD · Q2 0:05
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.FitzGerald pass complete short middle to #1 T.Lockley caught at ASU18, for 37 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:05, 1ST DOWN #38 L.Lopez kick attempt good (H: #94 N.Harris, LS: #49 J.Wagner)
+1.4
TD · Q3 8:26
(08:27) #5 K.Clay rush right for 5 yards gain to the UWG00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:26 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com