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ARST

Arkansas State 7 at TCU 31

TCU
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:07 · (04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep left to #19 J.Hamm thrown to TCU08 QB hurried by #14 J.Schobel, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior+33.3Home team on offense+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:10: (05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #18 E.Small caught at ASU00, for 17 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:10, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry) — TCU win probability +4.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:05: (01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:05 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith) — ARST win probability +6.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:01: (00:08) Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #80 J.Hayes thrown to ASU33 — TCU win probability +4.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:53: (15:00) #30 C.Amaya kickoff 63 yards to the TCU02 #4 A.Theus return 18 yards to the TCU20 (#4 M.Shahid; #84 R.Linder) — ARST win probability +4.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:17: (00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #88 K.Pimpton caught at ASU00, for 9 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:17, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry) — TCU win probability +5.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:27ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:01TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 33, tied
    Close callWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:07ARST 4th & 2 at TCU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:35TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:02ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 19, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:39ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:28TCU 4th & 3 at ARST 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    85.3%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:34ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:09ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:49TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 30, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:17ARST 4th & 1 at TCU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−9.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:28TCU 4th & 2 at ARST 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−1.0
    83% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−7.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:20ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:26TCU 4th & 2 at ARST 11, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:04ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:52TCU 4th & 6 at ARST 29, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:36TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:10TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:05ARST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:17TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:52TCU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3311% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.7%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #10 J.Bonelli thrown to ASU42 PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (#4 G.Jackson) 15 yards from ASU25 to ASU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.6%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 0 yards to the ASU40 (#95 M.Deal; #92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
88.4%
(14:17) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right thrown to TCU48Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+4
88.4%
(14:11) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush left for 4 yards gain to the ASU44 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
88.2%
(13:34) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 32 yards to the TCU24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 4:5188% → 88%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
88.2%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 3 yards gain to the TCU27 (#23 T.Stevens). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 8 yards gain to the TCU32 (#6 A.McGhee), out of bounds)Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
88.0%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU26, for 5 yards to the TCU32 (#16 J.Drew; #5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
87.8%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #6 J.Scott caught at TCU35, for 4 yards to the TCU36 (#5 F.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
87.8%
(11:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU39 (#92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+10
87.7%
(11:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #81 K.Ashley caught at TCU36, for 1 yard to the TCU40 (#6 A.McGhee), out of bounds PENALTY TCU Holding (#56 B.Taylor-Whitfield) 10 yards from TCU40 to TCU30Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+3
87.4%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 3 yards gain to the TCU33 (#92 E.Sherman; #16 J.Drew)Similar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+52
87.1%
(10:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep left to #18 E.Small caught at ASU33, for 52 yards to the ASU15 (#4 M.Shahid), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
87.5%
(09:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 9 yards gain to the ASU06 (#4 M.Shahid)Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+3
87.4%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU03 (#5 F.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.2%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:36 #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:2112% → 13%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.8%
(08:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush left for 5 yards gain to the ASU30 (#4 G.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
87.6%
(08:09) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU32 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
87.6%
(07:29) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush right for 13 yards gain to the ASU45 (#7 J.Simms), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
87.2%
(06:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 11 yards gain to the TCU44 (#2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
87.0%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU43 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh; #95 M.Deal)Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+7
86.8%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #2 C.Cobb caught at TCU46, for 7 yards to the TCU36 (#2 J.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
86.7%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #31 T.Carter rush middle for 0 yards to the TCU36 (#35 T.Johnson; #3 M.Carroll)Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
86.8%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep left to #19 J.Hamm thrown to TCU08 QB hurried by #14 J.Schobel, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2888% → 87%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.8%
(04:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #88 K.Pimpton thrown to ASU46Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-4
87.7%
(04:03) No Huddle #26 J.Payne rush middle for 4 yards loss to the TCU32 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+4
87.3%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #26 J.Payne caught at TCU32, for 4 yards to the TCU36 (#5 F.Hamilton), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
87.1%
(02:42) #48 J.Chance punt 53 yards to the ASU11 fair catch by #10 J.Bonelli at ASU11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2613% → 12%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
87.5%
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU15, for 7 yards to the ASU18 (#2 J.Johnson; #37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+1
87.4%
(02:02) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU19 (#14 J.Schobel)Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 2
OWN 19
0
87.5%
(01:20) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #11 T.Little thrown to ASU34Similar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 2
OWN 19
+21
87.6%
(01:17) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 47 yards to the TCU34 #4 A.Theus return 21 yards to the ASU45 (#17 M.Williams; #15 B.Greil)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6INT
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:4488% → 88%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
87.7%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig rush right for 11 yards gain to the ASU34 (#20 T.Grant), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-24
87.8%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass intercepted by #13 K.Williams at ASU00 #13 K.Williams return 24 yards to the ASU24 (#6 J.Scott)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:3013% → 13%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
87.2%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU20, for 5 yards to the ASU29 (#15 D.Hidrogo)Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+10
87.0%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #23 S.Baggett caught at ASU35, for 10 yards to the ASU39 (#2 J.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
86.7%
(14:21) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU40 (#37 H.Hooper; #14 J.Schobel)Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
86.7%
(13:39) Shotgun #2 C.Cobb rush left for 4 yards gain to the ASU44 (#15 D.Hidrogo)Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
86.3%
(12:53) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short middle to #10 J.Bonelli thrown to ASU47 broken up by #3 M.CarrollSimilar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+5
87.0%
(12:48) PENALTY ASU False Start (#17 M.Williams) 5 yards from ASU44 to ASU39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+3
87.3%
(12:48) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 34 yards to the TCU27 muffed by #4 A.Theus at TCU27 recovered by TCU #7 J.Simms at TCU30, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:0587% → 87%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
86.9%
(12:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Pitchford rush right for 11 yards gain to the TCU41 (#16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
87.3%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #6 J.Scott caught at TCU47, for 9 yards to the TCU50 (#13 K.Williams)Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 1
50
0
87.4%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Pitchford rush middle for 0 yards to the TCU50 (#34 M.McShan)Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 1
50
+3
87.2%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Pitchford rush right for 3 yards gain to the ASU47 (#34 M.McShan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
87.3%
(10:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU42 (#98 S.Woods)Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
87.4%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU40 (#15 B.Greil; #23 T.Stevens)Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
87.1%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 0 yards to the ASU40 (#23 T.Stevens)Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
86.6%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig rush right for 0 yards to the ASU40 (#5 F.Hamilton) PENALTY TCU Holding declined, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4714% → 13%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
85.9%
(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU43 (#7 J.Simms; #92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
85.9%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep left to #3 H.Summers thrown to TCU22Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
86.2%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short middle to #3 H.Summers thrown to TCU47Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
86.7%
(07:41) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 39 yards to the TCU18 fair catch by #4 A.Theus at TCU18 PENALTY ASU Illegal Formation 5 yards from TCU18 to TCU23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 2:1286% → 91%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
86.2%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #80 J.Hayes caught at TCU27, for 18 yards to the TCU41 (#16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+42
86.9%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete deep right to #18 E.Small caught at ASU22, for 42 yards to the ASU17, out of bounds at ASU17, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
87.3%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 0 yards to the ASU17 (#54 R.Reese; #92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
87.3%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #26 J.Payne thrown to ASU21. The previous play is under automatic review - "Forward pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 6 yards loss to the ASU23 fumbled by #26 J.Payne at ASU21 recovered by TCU #26 J.Payne at ASU23, End Of Play)Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
91.3%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #18 E.Small caught at ASU00, for 17 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:10, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5610% → 10%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.2%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU28 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
90.2%
(04:32) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 14 yards gain to the ASU42 (#1 V.Glover), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
90.0%
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #0 N.Burris thrown to ASU37 broken up by #95 M.DealSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
90.2%
(04:07) Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU47 (#37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
90.1%
(03:24) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short left to #10 J.Bonelli thrown to TCU49 broken up by #7 J.Simms QB hurried by #97 P.OyewaleSimilar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 5
OWN 47
+42
90.5%
(03:18) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 42 yards to the TCU11 #4 A.Theus return for loss of 1 yard to the TCU10 (#15 B.Greil)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:1492% → 93%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
92.1%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 11 yards gain to the TCU21 (#11 B.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
92.2%
(02:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #81 K.Ashley caught at TCU23, for 5 yards to the TCU26 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
92.2%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #18 E.Small thrown to TCU39Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+4
91.7%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig rush right for 4 yards gain to the TCU30 (#30 G.Taylor)Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+2
92.8%
(01:59) #48 J.Chance punt 56 yards to the ASU14 #10 J.Bonelli return 2 yards to the ASU16 (#18 K.McFadden)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
4 plays · 84 yds · 0:358% → 15%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+31
92.0%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete deep left to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU47, for 31 yards to the ASU47 (#4 G.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
91.7%
(01:36) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #22 E.Jolly caught at ASU49, for 6 yards to the TCU47 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+46
90.8%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete deep middle to #17 J.Bush caught at TCU24, for 46 yards to the TCU01 (#22 J.Lester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.6%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:05 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:5688% → 88%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
88.4%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig sacked for loss of 3 yards to the TCU22 (#54 R.Reese)Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+11
88.2%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #18 E.Small caught at TCU20, for 11 yards to the TCU33 (#92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+20
86.7%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #81 K.Ashley caught at TCU46, for 20 yards to the ASU47 (#5 F.Hamilton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
88.1%
(00:08) Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #80 J.Hayes thrown to ASU33Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
88.0%
(00:03) Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete deep right to #88 K.Pimpton thrown to ASU00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0185% → 85%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.9%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete deep middle to #88 K.Pimpton thrown to TCU40 broken up by #23 T.StevensSimilar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
84.7%
(14:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TCU26 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
84.2%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #80 J.Hayes thrown to TCU32Similar
Q3 13:48
4TH & 4
OPP 0
+14
84.8%
(14:03) #48 J.Chance punt 49 yards to the ASU25 #10 J.Bonelli return 14 yards to the ASU39 (#7 J.Simms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:2517% → 17%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
83.1%
(13:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush right for 9 yards gain to the ASU48 (#1 V.Glover)Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
81.9%
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush right for 0 yards to the ASU48 (#2 J.Johnson; #3 M.Carroll)Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
82.3%
(12:47) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU50 (#37 H.Hooper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
50
0
81.7%
(12:07) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right thrown to TCU35 QB hurried by #2 J.JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 10
50
+9
82.4%
(11:59) Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush right for 9 yards gain to the TCU41 (#9 C.Woodfork)Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+34
81.4%
(11:20) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush left for 34 yards gain to the TCU07 (#15 D.Hidrogo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
79.9%
(10:30) Shotgun #31 T.Carter rush left for 2 yards gain to the TCU05 (#37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
79.7%
(09:48) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #11 T.Little caught at TCU03, for 2 yards to the TCU03 (#37 H.Hooper)Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
82.1%
(09:05) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush left for 2 yards gain to the TCU01 (#4 G.Jackson; #3 M.Carroll)Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.8%
(08:27) #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #11 T.Little thrown to TCU00 broken up by #22 J.Lester, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
15 plays · 99 yds · 7:5487% → 96%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
86.8%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU04 (#23 T.Stevens)Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+22
86.7%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #18 E.Small caught at TCU07, for 22 yards to the TCU26 (#5 F.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
87.2%
(07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 2 yards gain to the TCU28 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
87.1%
(06:17) Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 5 yards gain to the TCU33 (#23 T.Stevens)Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+32
86.8%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #81 K.Ashley caught at TCU30, for 32 yards to the ASU35 (#4 M.Shahid), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
88.9%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Pitchford rush right for 6 yards gain to the ASU29 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+3
89.0%
(04:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short left to #24 J.Pitchford caught at ASU30, for 3 yards to the ASU26 (#16 J.Drew). #24 J.Pitchford injured on the playSimilar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
88.2%
(04:02) No Huddle #1 J.Craig rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU23 (#16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
89.0%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig rush right for 1 yard gain to the ASU22, out of bounds at ASU22Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+2
89.0%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 2 yards gain to the ASU20 (#98 S.Woods)Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+5
88.9%
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #80 J.Hayes caught at ASU17, for 5 yards to the ASU15 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+3
88.1%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 3 yards gain to the ASU12 (#8 B.Barnes; #16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
90.8%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Pitchford rush right for 3 yards gain to the ASU09 (#92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
96.4%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #88 K.Pimpton caught at ASU00, for 9 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:17, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 2 yds · 2:576% → 5%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
94.1%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU36 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
94.1%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep right to #3 H.Summers thrown to TCU12Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
94.5%
(14:52) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #10 J.Bonelli caught at ASU45, for 10 yards to the ASU46 (#15 D.Hidrogo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
94.3%
(14:05) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU44, for 0 yards to the ASU46 (#4 G.Jackson)Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-8
94.4%
(13:26) Shotgun #9 T.Owens sacked for loss of 8 yards to the ASU38 (#16 K.Hayward)Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 18
OWN 38
-1
95.0%
(12:46) Shotgun #9 T.Owens sacked for loss of 1 yard to the ASU37 (#97 P.Oyewale) PENALTY ASU Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 19
OWN 37
+3
95.1%
(12:30) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 45 yards to the TCU18 #4 A.Theus return 3 yards to the TCU21, End Of Play PENALTY TCU Running Into The Kicker declined TCU Holding (#18 K.McFadden) 10 yards from TCU21 to TCU11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 78 yds · 6:4998% → 99%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
97.7%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TCU14 (#92 E.Sherman). #56 B.Taylor-Whitfield injured on the playSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+29
97.8%
(11:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #80 J.Hayes caught at TCU32, for 29 yards to the TCU43 (#6 A.McGhee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
98.2%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 7 yards gain to the TCU50 (#6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 3
50
+5
98.3%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 5 yards gain to the ASU45 (#16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
98.4%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 1 yard loss to the ASU46 (#23 T.Stevens)Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+16
98.4%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #18 E.Small caught at ASU35, for 16 yards to the ASU30 (#6 A.McGhee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
98.6%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush right for 11 yards gain to the ASU19 (#30 G.Taylor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
98.6%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Payne rush left for 2 yards gain to the ASU17 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+2
98.7%
(06:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Pitchford rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU15 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+4
98.8%
(06:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig rush right for 4 yards gain to the ASU11 (#23 T.Stevens), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+29
99.4%
(05:29) #99 N.McCashland field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry), clock 05:26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:171% → 1%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 0 yards to the ASU25 (#92 A.Din-Mbuh)Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
(04:47) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep left to #10 J.Bonelli thrown to TCU43 broken up by #4 G.JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.3%
(04:42) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU32, for 9 yards to the ASU34 (#37 H.Hooper). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (04:42) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU32, for 12 yards to the ASU37 (#37 H.Hooper), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.2%
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #10 J.Bonelli thrown to ASU45 broken up by #1 V.Glover QB hurried by #4 G.Jackson, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
99.5%
(04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 L.Walker rush left for 1 yard loss to the ASU34 (#54 R.Reese; #20 T.Grant)Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+1
99.5%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Pitchford rush left for 1 yard gain to the ASU33 (#16 J.Drew), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.5%
(02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #18 E.Small caught at ASU35, for 4 yards to the ASU29, out of bounds at ASU29Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+29
99.8%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short middle to #81 K.Ashley caught at ASU10, for 29 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:52, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush right for 2 yards gain to the ASU27 (#11 M.Short)Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.8%
(01:08) Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush right for 5 yards gain to the ASU32 (#91 F.Guidry)Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.8%
(00:23) Shotgun #27 J.Lee rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ASU36 (#18 K.McFadden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:05
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:05 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)
-6.2
TD · Q3 0:17
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass complete short right to #88 K.Pimpton caught at ASU00, for 9 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:17, 1ST DOWN #99 N.McCashland kick attempt good (H: #97 E.Black, LS: #57 W.Terry)
+5.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:01
(00:08) Shotgun #1 J.Craig pass incomplete short right to #80 J.Hayes thrown to ASU33
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com