Try the model
USA

South Alabama 56 at Arkansas State 49

ARST
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2026 · Centennial Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:38 · (13:38) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 44 yards to the USA33 #2 J.Jones-Thomas return 2 yards to the USA35 (#3 N.Flores) PENALTY USA Illegal Block in Back (#23 C.Gurley) 11 yard from USA33 to USA22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Pregame prior+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:37: (04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:37 #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner) — USA win probability +17.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:51: J. Hollins run for 3 yds, for a TD (D. Little KICK) — USA win probability +19.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:29: Jared Hollins 3 Yd Run (Davis Little PAT failed) — USA win probability +15.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:32: T. Owens pass to H. Summers for 20 yds, for a TD (C. Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +17.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:10: T. Owens pass to S. Baggett for 4 yds, for a TD (C. Van Andel KICK) — ARST win probability +13.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:30ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:38ARST 4th & 12 at ARST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:43USA 4th & 1 at ARST 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:18USA 4th & 4 at ARST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:32USA 4th & 3 at USA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:36USA 4th & 2 at ARST 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    79.9%−1.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−11.4
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:37ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 27, down 21
    Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:05USA 4th & 2 at USA 33, up 20
    Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:43USA 4th & 1 at USA 34, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:21USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:44ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:56ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:16ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:37USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:51USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:29USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:32ARST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:36USA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:10ARST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:52USA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:1553% → 53%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.0%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush right for 4 yards gain to the ASU29 (#5 J.Henderson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-6
53.0%
(14:24) Shotgun #9 T.Owens sacked for loss of 6 yards to the ASU23 (#10 W.Felton IV)Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
53.0%
(13:43) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short left to #2 C.Cobb thrown to ASU35Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
53.0%
(13:38) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 44 yards to the USA33 #2 J.Jones-Thomas return 2 yards to the USA35 (#3 N.Flores) PENALTY USA Illegal Block in Back (#23 C.Gurley) 10 yards from USA32 to USA22Similar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+2
53.0%
(13:38) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 44 yards to the USA33 #2 J.Jones-Thomas return 2 yards to the USA35 (#3 N.Flores) PENALTY USA Illegal Block in Back (#23 C.Gurley) 11 yard from USA33 to USA22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 6:0947% → 50%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
53.1%
PENALTY USA False Start (#69 K.Jerido) 5 yards from USA22 to USA17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+7
53.2%
(13:29) Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USA24 (#94 J.Johnson; #0 D.Henderson)Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+29
53.2%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 29 yards gain to the ASU47, out of bounds at ASU47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
53.0%
(12:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Phillips thrown to ASU35Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
53.0%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ASU38 (#92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
53.0%
(11:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete deep right to #2 J.Jones-Thomas thrown to ASU10Similar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+4
53.2%
(11:47) Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush right for 4 yards gain to the ASU34 (#5 F.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
52.8%
(11:12) Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush right for 12 yards gain to the ASU22 (#6 A.McGhee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
52.8%
(10:37) Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush right for 8 yards gain to the ASU14, out of bounds at ASU14 PENALTY USA Holding (#72 E.Hubbard) 10 yards from ASU22 to ASU32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+8
52.9%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short left to #0 P.Martin caught at ASU36, for 8 yards to the ASU24 (#3 N.Flores; #16 J.Drew)Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+7
52.9%
(09:49) Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short right to #3 K.Phillips caught at ASU24, for 7 yards to the ASU17 (#16 J.Drew), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+1
52.9%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush right for 1 yard gain to the ASU16 (#10 T.Carter)Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+9
53.3%
(08:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short left to #2 J.Jones-Thomas caught at ASU07, for 9 yards to the ASU07 (#5 F.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
52.6%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU06 (#98 S.Woods)Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.7%
(07:24) Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:21 #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:2351% → 57%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
50.9%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #5 K.Clay caught at ASU21, for 7 yards to the ASU27 (#12 J.Moson)Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+8
51.0%
(06:35) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #10 J.Bonelli caught at ASU28, for 8 yards to the ASU35 (#12 J.Moson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
50.7%
(05:52) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU40, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
51.3%
(05:16) Shotgun #2 C.Cobb rush right for 2 yards gain to the ASU42 (#24 D.Darby)Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
51.0%
(04:37) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU45, for 4 yards to the ASU46 (#12 J.Moson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USA Face Mask (#12 J.Moson) 15 yards from ASU46 to USA39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
51.5%
(04:09) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush right for 2 yards gain to the USA37 (#14 C.Blaylock)Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
51.4%
(03:29) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep right to #16 J.Burrell thrown to USA16Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+9
51.2%
(03:23) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #0 N.Burris caught at USA28, for 9 yards to the USA28, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+24
52.1%
(02:47) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #11 T.Little caught at USA09, for 24 yards to the USA04 (#8 D.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
51.6%
(02:22) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA01 (#18 M.Lewis)Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.0%
(01:46) #31 T.Carter rush right for 1 yard gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:44 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:2149% → 59%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+23
48.9%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #10 J.Bonelli caught at ASU25, for 23 yards to the ASU37 (#14 C.Blaylock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
49.3%
(00:46) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU40, for 8 yards to the ASU45 (#11 P.Shattuck; #10 W.Felton IV)Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-1
50.1%
(00:12) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush right for 1 yard loss to the ASU44 (#10 W.Felton IV)Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+3
49.7%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #10 J.Bonelli caught at ASU48, for 3 yards to the ASU47 (#12 J.Moson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
49.9%
(14:22) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete deep right to #3 H.Summers caught at USA30, for 29 yards to the USA24 (#14 C.Blaylock), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
51.2%
(13:44) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush left for 5 yards gain to the USA19 (#11 P.Shattuck; #24 D.Darby)Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+19
58.6%
(13:00) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at USA00, for 19 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:56, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USA Face Mask (#90 E.Smiley) 15 yards from USA00 to USA03, 1ST DOWN #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1646% → 45%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.1%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Dunbar rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USA31 (#6 A.McGhee; #92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
53.4%
(12:21) Shotgun #6 M.Woods rush right for 1 yard gain to the USA32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
54.0%
(11:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete short left to #21 T.Dunbar thrown to USA32 QB hurried by #92 E.ShermanSimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
55.0%
(11:39) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 25 yards to the ASU43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 5:0758% → 68%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
57.8%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Bonelli rush left for 1 yard gain to the ASU44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+7
57.8%
(10:56) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #31 T.Carter caught at ASU38, for 7 yards to the USA49 (#90 E.Smiley)Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+7
58.3%
(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #0 N.Burris caught at USA45, for 7 yards to the USA42 (#14 C.Blaylock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
59.0%
(09:34) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short middle to #0 N.Burris thrown to USA40Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
59.0%
(09:30) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USA37 (#16 S.Langston)Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+9
59.1%
(08:40) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #3 H.Summers caught at USA28, for 9 yards to the USA28, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
60.2%
(07:53) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush right for 11 yards gain to the USA17 (#8 D.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
60.3%
(07:15) Shotgun #22 E.Jolly rush right for 15 yards gain to the USA02 (#8 D.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.7%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush left for 1 yard gain to the USA01 (#13 K.Robinson; #18 M.Lewis)Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.0%
(06:18) #31 T.Carter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:16 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 1:3233% → 52%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
67.0%
(06:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USA31 (#54 R.Reese; #23 T.Stevens)Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
66.4%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete short left to #1 A.Eager thrown to USA36. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short left to #1 A.Eager caught at USA36, for 5 yards to the USA36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+15
68.0%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete short right to #12 B.Jenkins thrown to USA32 PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (#5 F.Hamilton) 15 yards from USA31 to USA46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
66.5%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete deep right to #2 J.Jones-Thomas thrown to ASU10 PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (#15 B.Greil) 15 yards from USA46 to ASU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+36
65.3%
(05:07) Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete deep left to #12 B.Jenkins caught at ASU05, for 36 yards to the ASU03 (#6 A.McGhee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
48.4%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:37 #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3556% → 57%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.1%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU30 (#48 J.Williams)Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
56.7%
(03:58) Shotgun #9 T.Owens sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ASU28 (#18 M.Lewis), fumble by #9 T.Owens recovered by USA #11 P.Shattuck at ASU28, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:5052% → 62%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
48.4%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush left for 8 yards gain to the ASU20 (#6 A.McGhee; #16 J.Drew)Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+2
48.3%
(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush right for 2 yards gain to the ASU18 (#16 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
48.0%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush left for 8 yards gain to the ASU10 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 2
OPP 10
-2
47.9%
(02:11) Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 2 yards loss to the ASU12 (#0 D.Henderson; #10 T.Carter)Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+9
50.8%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush left for 9 yards gain to the ASU03 (#92 E.Sherman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
37.8%
J. Hollins run for 3 yds, for a TD (D. Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
47.1%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass intercepted by #18 M.Lewis at ASU16 broken up by #48 J.Williams #18 M.Lewis return 4 yards to the ASU12 (#52 M.Myers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0460% → 76%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
40.0%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short right to #9 R.Gibbs caught at ASU03, for 9 yards to the ASU03 (#9 K.Moore)Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
24.3%
Jared Hollins 3 Yd Run (Davis Little PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 0:3829% → 53%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
29.4%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #10 J.Bonelli caught at ASU28, for 3 yards to the ASU30 (#18 M.Lewis; #24 D.Darby)Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
29.4%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short middle to #17 J.Bush thrown to ASU40 broken up by #11 P.ShattuckSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+35
28.8%
(00:58) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete deep left to #3 H.Summers caught at USA41, for 35 yards to the USA35 (#5 J.Henderson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
34.9%
(00:36) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep right to #10 J.Bonelli thrown to USA02 PENALTY USA Pass Interference (#12 J.Moson) 15 yards from USA35 to USA20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
52.6%
T. Owens pass to H. Summers for 20 yds, for a TD (C. Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
42.4%
(00:29) Kneel down by #7 J.Hollins at USA22 for loss of 3 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:1967% → 75%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+33
33.1%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 33 yards gain to the ASU41 (#5 F.Hamilton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
30.3%
(14:21) Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU38 (#9 K.Moore; #16 J.Drew)Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+15
29.8%
(13:43) Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete deep middle to #1 A.Eager thrown to ASU00 PENALTY ASU Roughing The Passer (#54 R.Reese) 15 yards from ASU38 to ASU23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
25.0%
Keenan Phillips 23 Yd Run (Jared Hollins Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17INT
10 plays · 61 yds · 5:0429% → 27%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
28.9%
(13:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush right for 8 yards gain to the ASU33 (#11 P.Shattuck), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
28.7%
(12:43) Shotgun #23 S.Baggett rush middle for 14 yards gain to the ASU47 (#5 J.Henderson; #48 J.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
29.6%
(12:01) Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush middle for 0 yards to the ASU47 (#41 T.Carter; #56 S.Johnson)Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
28.9%
PENALTY ASU False Start (#50 W.Saxton) 5 yards from ASU47 to ASU42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+11
27.4%
(11:00) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #3 H.Summers caught at ASU47, for 11 yards to the USA47 (#11 P.Shattuck)Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+10
28.1%
(10:24) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #3 H.Summers caught at USA40, for 10 yards to the USA37 (#8 D.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
27.7%
(09:41) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #11 T.Little caught at USA35, for 23 yards to the USA14 (#5 J.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
28.5%
(09:00) Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush middle for 0 yards to the USA14 (#14 C.Blaylock)Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-58
26.9%
(08:21) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass intercepted by #24 D.Darby at USA16 #24 D.Darby return 58 yards to the ASU26 (#2 C.Cobb) PENALTY ASU Holding declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 3:2183% → 96%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
17.5%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Dunbar rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ASU17 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+2
17.1%
(07:30) Shotgun #21 T.Dunbar rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ASU15 (#20 T.Grant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
15.8%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Dunbar rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU12 (#16 J.Drew; #98 S.Woods)Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-1
15.3%
(06:07) Shotgun #21 T.Dunbar rush right for 1 yard loss to the ASU13 (#6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+6
15.1%
(05:27) Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush left for 6 yards gain to the ASU07 (#5 F.Hamilton)Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+7
4.2%
J. Hollins pass to R. Gibbs for 7 yds, for a TD (D. Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:268% → 22%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.9%
PENALTY ASU False Start (#53 T.Chandler) 5 yards from ASU25 to ASU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
7.6%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush right for 6 yards gain to the ASU26 (#18 M.Lewis; #5 J.Henderson)Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+22
7.0%
(03:57) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #17 J.Bush caught at ASU39, for 22 yards to the ASU48 (#14 C.Blaylock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
7.4%
(03:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #3 H.Summers thrown to ASU50Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
7.4%
(03:28) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short middle to #10 J.Bonelli caught at USA41, for 12 yards to the USA40 (#14 C.Blaylock; #16 S.Langston), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
7.5%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #16 J.Burrell caught at USA32, for 13 yards to the USA27 (#8 D.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
8.1%
(02:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #5 K.Clay caught at USA29, for 12 yards to the USA15 (#12 J.Moson; #16 S.Langston), 1ST DOWN. #24 D.Darby, #56 S.Johnson injured on the playSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
7.3%
(02:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short left to #0 N.Burris caught at USA08, for 9 yards to the USA06 (#3 T.Webb III), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+2
7.7%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Clay rush right for 2 yards gain to the USA04 (#48 J.Williams; #14 C.Blaylock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.5%
T. Owens pass to S. Baggett for 4 yds, for a TD (C. Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1089% → 98%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.0%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA26 (#54 R.Reese; #92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
10.3%
(00:33) Shotgun #7 J.Hollins rush left for 16 yards gain (16) to the USA42 (#16 J.Drew), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ASU Personal Foul (#16 J.Drew) 15 yards from USA42 to ASU43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
9.1%
(00:00) Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ASU42 (#54 R.Reese)Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+42
2.2%
K. Phillips run for 42 yds, for a TD (D. Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:055% → 4%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
4.6%
(14:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short middle to #10 J.Bonelli thrown to ASU36Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
4.5%
(14:40) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short right to #23 S.Baggett thrown to ASU27Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+6
4.2%
(14:35) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #23 S.Baggett caught at ASU25, for 6 yards to the ASU27 (#8 D.Young; #14 C.Blaylock)Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
3.6%
(13:47) #90 D.Vuckovic punt 73 yards to the USA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:5699% → 97%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.8%
(13:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA22 (#16 J.Drew; #9 K.Moore)Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
0.7%
PENALTY USA False Start (#64 J.Siler) 5 yards from USA22 to USA17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-2
2.7%
(12:34) Shotgun South Alabama rush middle for 2 yards loss to the USA15 fumbled by South Alabama at USA20 recovered by ASU #20 T.Grant at USA15, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:064% → 3%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
3.5%
(12:24) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short left to #16 J.Burrell thrown to USA00Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
3.4%
T. Owens pass to J. Bush for 15 yds, for a TD (C. Van Andel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0498% → 88%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.4%
(12:16) Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA27 (#9 K.Moore; #10 T.Carter)Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
2.2%
(11:38) Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA29 (#92 E.Sherman; #6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
2.1%
(10:54) Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USA33 (#16 J.Drew; #6 A.McGhee)Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
11.7%
(10:09) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 48 yards to the ASU19 fair catch by #10 J.Bonelli at ASU19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 3:042% → 2%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
2.3%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #2 C.Cobb caught at ASU26, for 10 yards to the ASU29 (#16 S.Langston; #24 D.Darby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
2.3%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #17 J.Bush caught at ASU34, for 6 yards to the ASU35 (#16 S.Langston)Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+14
2.3%
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens rush right for 14 yards gain to the ASU49, out of bounds at ASU49, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ASU Holding (#23 S.Baggett) 10 yards from ASU49 to ASU39Similar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
2.3%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #23 S.Baggett caught at ASU45, for 7 yards to the ASU46 (#48 J.Williams)Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
2.3%
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete short right to #17 J.Bush caught at ASU50, for 4 yards to the ASU50 (#5 J.Henderson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
50
0
2.2%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete deep middle to #17 J.Bush thrown to USA29Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
50
+39
2.2%
(08:23) Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass complete deep left to #2 C.Cobb caught at USA12, for 39 yards to the USA11 (#14 C.Blaylock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
2.6%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Owens pass incomplete short left to #3 H.Summers thrown to USA00 PENALTY USA Pass Interference (#12 J.Moson) 9 yards from USA11 to USA02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
2.5%
(07:54) No Huddle #31 T.Carter rush left for 1 yard gain to the USA01 (#30 P.Hand II)Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.5%
(07:28) #31 T.Carter rush middle for 0 yards to the USA01 (#56 S.Johnson)Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.1%
(06:52) #9 T.Owens rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:51 #34 C.Van Andel kick attempt good (H: #90 D.Vuckovic, LS: #88 R.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26END OF GAME
19 plays · 38 yds · 6:1397% → 99%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
3.3%
(06:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA27 (#92 E.Sherman)Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
3.0%
(06:09) Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA28 (#16 J.Drew)Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
2.2%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins rush left for 6 yards gain to the USA34 (#9 K.Moore), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
1.9%
(04:49) Shotgun #7 J.Hollins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USA39 (#5 F.Hamilton; #94 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
1.7%
(04:04) Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush right for 1 yard gain to the USA40 (#94 J.Johnson; #20 T.Grant)Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
1.5%
(03:22) Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush left for 6 yards gain to the USA46 (#15 B.Greil; #16 J.Drew)Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
1.4%
(02:41) Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush right for 5 yards gain to the ASU49 (#94 J.Johnson; #0 D.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
1.0%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU44 (#6 A.McGhee; #9 K.Moore)Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
1.0%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush right for 2 yards gain to the ASU42 (#10 T.Carter)Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+10
0.8%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ASU32 (#4 M.Shahid), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
0.6%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ASU33 (#10 T.Carter)Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-2
0.6%
(01:02) Kneel down by South Alabama at ASU35 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 13
OPP 35
-2
0.6%
(00:28) Kneel down by South Alabama at ASU37 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:51
J. Hollins run for 3 yds, for a TD (D. Little KICK)
-19.5
TD · Q2 0:32
T. Owens pass to H. Summers for 20 yds, for a TD (C. Van Andel KICK)
+17.7
TD · Q2 4:37
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:37 #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)
-17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com