The extremes of the archive.
Plain queries against the model's own scored win-probability curves across a decade of games - not a hand-picked list. Every ranking states exactly what it measures; every row links to the full game.
Most exciting games
A 0-100 score blending overall win-probability movement, how often the lead flipped, late-game tension, and comeback magnitude across the whole game.
1
WISPUR
WIS 47-44 PUR
2018 · Week 12
93.9
2
UGAOU
UGA 54-48 OU
2017 · Rose Bowl Game - CFP Semifinal
93.0
3
LIBUSM
LIB 29-27 USM
2022 · Week 1
92.9
4
UNTWMU
UNT 33-30 WMU
2025 · Week 2
92.7
5
OHIOBUF
OHIO 26-27 BUF
2021 · Week 7
92.7
6
PSUUSC
PSU 33-30 USC
2024 · Week 7
92.7
7
CALWSU
CAL 60-59 WSU
2014 · Week 6
92.6
8
EWUUNLV
EWU 35-33 UNLV
2021 · Week 1
92.0
9
CITCLT
CIT 43-41 CLT
2026 · Week 1
91.9
10
LIBMASS
LIB 59-62 MASS
2018 · Week 10
91.7
Most improbable comebacks
The eventual winner's lowest win probability at any point in the game - the deepest hole they climbed out of.
1
USAEMU
USA 59-10 EMU
2023 · 68 Ventures Bowl
0.0%
2
CCUUTSA
CCU 15-44 UTSA
2024 · Myrtle Beach Bowl
0.0%
3
KENTCMU
KENT 27-24 CMU
2016 · Week 9
0.3%
4
STANHAW
STAN 20-23 HAW
2025 · Week 1
0.3%
5
LTGASO
LT 3-38 GASO
2020 · R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
0.4%
6
UCLAWSU
UCLA 67-63 WSU
2019 · Week 4
0.4%
7
SJSUUSU
SJSU 25-30 USU
2025 · Week 8
0.5%
8
HAWAF
HAW 34-27 AF
2016 · Week 8
0.5%
9
UNMUNLV
UNM 20-31 UNLV
2022 · Week 5
0.6%
10
UNDUSU
UND 24-48 USU
2021 · Week 2
0.6%
Biggest upsets
The eventual winner's own win probability before the opening kickoff - how unlikely the model thought this outcome was, regardless of how the game actually played out.
1
HOWUNLV
HOW 43-40 UNLV
2017 · Week 1
0.7%
2
IDSTNEV
IDST 30-28 NEV
2017 · Week 3
1.8%
3
LIBBAY
LIB 48-45 BAY
2017 · Week 1
2.1%
4
MASSRUTG
MASS 37-21 RUTG
2026 · Week 1
2.4%
5
USAMSST
USA 21-20 MSST
2016 · Week 1
2.5%
6
BGSUMINN
BGSU 14-10 MINN
2021 · Week 4
2.6%
7
LIBULM
LIB 28-31 ULM
2021 · Week 7
2.6%
8
WISILL
WIS 23-24 ILL
2019 · Week 8
3.1%
9
DUQOHIO
DUQ 28-26 OHIO
2021 · Week 2
3.1%
10
JXSTFSU
JXST 20-17 FSU
2021 · Week 2
3.1%
Biggest single plays
The largest single-play change in home win probability anywhere in the archive - one snap that moved the outcome the most.
1
WMUMICH
WMU 12-13 MICH
2026 · Week 1 · Q4 0:00 - TD: JJ Buchanan 47 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood
90.5 pts
2
IUPSU
IU 27-24 PSU
2025 · Week 11 · Q4 0:36 - TD: Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #3 O.Cooper Jr. caught at PSU00, for 7 yards to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:36. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)
89.3 pts
3
KUARIZ
KU 20-24 ARIZ
2025 · Week 11 · Q4 0:39 - TD: (00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 Q.Craig rush middle for 24 yards gain to the KAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:39, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #31 I.Wagner, LS: #41 A.Salerno)
88.4 pts
4
CMUOKST
CMU 30-27 OKST
2016 · Week 2 · Q4 0:00 - TD: Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 42 yds lat. to Corey Willis for 9 yds for a TD (no attempt)
87.8 pts
5
SMUCAL
SMU 35-38 CAL
2025 · Week 14 · Q4 0:43 - TD: (00:47) #1 K.Raphael rush left for 2 yards gain to the SMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:43. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #91 C.Meyer kick attempt good (H: #40 B.Honore Jr., LS: #39 R.Monteforte)
87.8 pts
6
MICHNU
MICH 24-22 NU
2025 · Week 12 · Q4 0:00 - FG: Dominic Zvada 31 Yd Field Goal
87.4 pts
7
TXSTOHIO
TXST 56-54 OHIO
2016 · Week 1 · Q4 0:38 - TD: Greg Windham pass complete to Papi White for 75 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
86.4 pts
8
DUKEGT
DUKE 25-28 GT
2026 · Week 6 · Q4 0:54 - TD: (00:55) Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:54 #33 A.Birr kick attempt good (H: #47 A.Bacchetta, LS: #48 C.Keeler)
86.3 pts
9
GWEBMRSH
GWEB 35-36 MRSH
2026 · Week 4 · Q4 0:03 - FG: (00:04) #41 J.Diaz Nicolas field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #91 C.Heimbach, LS: #43 C.Ortiz), clock 00:03
85.5 pts
10
NCSUVAN
NCSU 31-35 VAN
2026 · Week 3 · Q4 0:00 - TD: Cayden Daniels 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brock Taylor Kick)
85.1 pts
Never in doubt
The same floor as the comebacks list, read from the other end - the winner's win probability never dropped below this number.
1
FAMUMIA
FAMU 7-77 MIA
2026 · Week 2
99.8%
2
CHSOFSU
CHSO 8-52 FSU
2016 · Week 2
99.8%
3
SAVBYU
SAV 0-64 BYU
2014 · Week 13
99.8%
4
ALSTAUB
ALST 9-63 AUB
2018 · Week 2
99.8%
5
SAVMIA
SAV 0-77 MIA
2018 · Week 2
99.7%
6
JKSTTCU
JKST 0-63 TCU
2017 · Week 1
99.7%
7
WCUALA
WCU 3-66 ALA
2019 · Week 13
99.7%
8
PRSTORE
PRST 0-84 ORE
2026 · Week 3
99.7%
9
HOWIU
HOW 0-55 IU
2026 · Week 2
99.7%
10
SCSTCLEM
SCST 0-59 CLEM
2016 · Week 3
99.7%
Flattest games
The lowest average per-play win-probability movement - the games that felt settled from the earliest snap.
1
ALSTAUB
ALST 9-63 AUB
2018 · Week 2
0.0050 pts/play
2
SAVBYU
SAV 0-64 BYU
2014 · Week 13
0.0052 pts/play
3
SCSTCLEM
SCST 0-59 CLEM
2016 · Week 3
0.0061 pts/play
4
CHSOFSU
CHSO 8-52 FSU
2016 · Week 2
0.0065 pts/play
5
SAVMIA
SAV 0-77 MIA
2018 · Week 2
0.0069 pts/play
6
FAMUMIA
FAMU 7-77 MIA
2026 · Week 2
0.0071 pts/play
7
JKSTTCU
JKST 0-63 TCU
2017 · Week 1
0.0071 pts/play
8
DSUWVU
DSU 16-59 WVU
2017 · Week 3
0.0072 pts/play
9
NMSUALA
NMSU 10-62 ALA
2019 · Week 2
0.0078 pts/play
10
WCUALA
WCU 3-66 ALA
2019 · Week 13
0.0084 pts/play