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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Alex McNulty 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 6:28: Alex McNulty 43 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +19.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:33: Stephen Johnson 33 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +10.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:11: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Vantrease pass to Dylan McDuffie for Two-Point Conversion) — BUF win probability +13.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:39: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Borland for 8 yds for a TD — BUF win probability +28.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Alex McNulty 26 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +67.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 13:38BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 28, tiedClose callPunted · 70.1% before the snapGo for it70.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:30BUF 4th & 1 at OHIO 1, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.9%59% to convertField goal66.4%−0.594% to makePunt64.9%−2.0average punt
- Q1 5:44BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snapGo for it61.6%−1.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.3%average punt
- Q2 12:52OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 47, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snapGo for it58.2%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.8%average punt
- Q2 6:28BUF 4th & 12 at OHIO 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snapGo for it35.3%−0.922% to convertField goalTheir call36.2%66% to makePunt32.4%−3.8average punt
- Q2 3:36OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 36, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snapGo for it65.9%−1.731% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.6%average punt
- Q3 6:33OHIO 4th & 16 at BUF 19, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snapGo for it62.2%−3.614% to convertField goalTheir call65.8%77% to makePunt55.7%−10.1average punt
- Q3 2:35OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 43, up 16Close callPunted · 82.8% before the snapGo for it83.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.5%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:01BUF 4th & 6 at OHIO 31, down 8Close callWent for it · 27.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.5%−0.140% to convertField goal26.6%54% to makePunt23.4%−3.2average punt
- Q4 6:19OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 31, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsPunted · 57.1% before the snapGo for it59.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.8%−4.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 10:04OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.4%97% to makeGo for two31.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:17OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.0%97% to makeGo for two35.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:44OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.8%97% to makeGo for two46.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:36BUF Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.8%97% to makeGo for two45.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:11BUF Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick29.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call29.1%−0.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBUFDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1765% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2TD7 plays · 60 yds · 3:3435% → 37%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3DOWNS7 plays · 64 yds · 2:2763% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4TD2 plays · 99 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3359% → 57%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jake Molinich for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6TD7 plays · 53 yds · 3:0044% → 51%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+31
56.2%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Ty Walton for 31 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7INT6 plays · 31 yds · 2:1966% → 67%
Q1 2:44
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
66.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khamran Laborn for 9 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
65.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 13 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+9
66.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khamran Laborn for 9 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0856% → 58%
BUFDrive 9FG14 plays · 66 yds · 6:2465% → 47%
Q2 12:52
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+15
63.6%
OHIO Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 20
OWN 32
+34
65.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 34 yds to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
67.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 35Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+5
67.0%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian thrown to the OHI0. PENALTY OHI Offsides on EVANS, Will enforced 5 yards from the OHI35 to the OHI30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-10
66.8%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass up the middle complete for 9 yards to WILLIAMS, Quian caught at the OHI21 and advanced to the OHI11 (CAESAR, Kaieem). PENALTY BUF Illegal Block in the Back on WALLACE, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the OHI20 to the OHI30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+5
66.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 5 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 2:5263% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD5 plays · 78 yds · 2:0041% → 45%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
41.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 13 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
41.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 35 yds to the Ohio 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
45.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Borland for 19 yds to the Ohio 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3658% → 62%
OHIODrive 13FG17 plays · 58 yds · 8:1659% → 79%
Q3 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+15
40.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
39.0%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Isiah Cox for 5 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+3
39.0%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Isiah Cox for 3 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-5
39.0%
OHIO Penalty, Illegal Snap on TITSWORTH, Parker enforced (-5 Yards) to the Buff 12Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 1
OPP 4
-15
31.3%
ROGERS, Armani pass up the middle complete for 4 yards to LUEHRMAN, Ryan caught at the BUF0 and advanced to the BUF0, TOUCHDOWN OHI, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY OHI Pass Interference on AMBURGEY, Jay enforced 15 yards to the BUF19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14SF4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3825% → 23%
Q3 5:50
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
22.5%
run for a loss of 24 yards for a SAFETY fumbled, recovered by Buff Trevor Borland for a SAFETY , return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1582% → 86%
BUFDrive 16TD11 plays · 80 yds · 4:2419% → 35%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
19.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+18
19.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 18 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
21.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+8
20.8%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian broken up by KEMENI, Pierre at the BUF50. PENALTY OHI Pass Interference on KEMENI, Pierre enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the BUF50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+24
20.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 24 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+3
19.7%
OHIO Penalty, Face mask (3 yards) (Bryce Houston) to the Ohio 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
35.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Vantrease pass to Dylan McDuffie for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17FUMBLE4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0576% → 77%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
24.2%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Holding (Marcus Fuqua) to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-8
22.5%
Armani Rogers run for a loss of 8 yards to the Ohio 37 fumbled, recovered by Ohio Sieh BanguraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD7 plays · 35 yds · 2:2234% → 62%
Q4 11:01
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+7
28.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 7 yds to the Ohio 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1556% → 57%
BUFDrive 20FG20 plays · 86 yds · 6:1950% → 96%
Q4 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+27
50.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 27 yds to the Ohio 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+12
57.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 12 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+8
46.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 8 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+9
50.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 9 yds to the Ohio 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Alex McNulty 26 yd FG GOOD
+67.6
TD · Q4 8:39
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Borland for 8 yds for a TD
+28.1
FG · Q2 6:28
Alex McNulty 43 yd FG GOOD
-19.7