ARDLINETry the model
SJSU

San José State 25 at Utah State 30

USU
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Maverik Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGKEY PLAYKEY PLAY
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SJSU · Drive 1FG · 13 plays · 56 yds
Q1 15:00
Zachary Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
25.9%
0.0
Q1 15:00
Lamar Radcliffe run for no gain to the SJSU 25 San José State Penalty, Offensive holding (Joseph Harbert) to the SJSU 15
23.6%
-2.3
Q1 14:39
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland Smith
23.2%
-0.4
Q1 14:36
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny Scudero, broken up by Bryson Taylor Utah State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ike Larsen) to the SJSU 30
23.2%
0.0
Q1 14:29
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 3 yds to the SJSU 33
23.2%
0.0
Q1 14:02
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 14 yds to the SJSU 47 for a 1ST down
23.2%
0.0
Q1 13:25
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Jackson Canaan, broken up by John Miller
21.8%
-1.4
Q1 13:20
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 9 yds to the USU 44
21.8%
0.0
Q1 12:32
Lamar Radcliffe run for 16 yds to the USU 28 for a 1ST down
21.6%
-0.2
Q1 11:55
Lamar Radcliffe run for 7 yds to the USU 21
21.2%
-0.4
Q1 11:17
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 2 yds to the USU 19
21.2%
0.0
Q1 10:33
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny Scudero, broken up by Ike Larsen
21.2%
0.0
Q1 10:28
Denis Lynch 37 yd FG GOOD
18.4%
-2.8
USU · Drive 2TD · 15 plays · 75 yds
Q1 10:25
Mathias Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
19.1%
+0.7
Q1 10:25
Anthony Garcia run for 10 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST down
24.0%
+4.9
Q1 10:10
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the USU 37
24.0%
0.0
Q1 9:38
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 8 yds to the USU 45 for a 1ST down
24.0%
0.0
Q1 9:17
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line Utah State Penalty, Offensive holding (Braden Pegan) to the USU 40
24.7%
+0.7
Q1 8:57
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for no gain to the USU 40
24.6%
-0.1
Q1 8:49
Javen Jacobs run for 1 yd to the USU 41
24.6%
0.0
Q1 8:12
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Anthony Garcia for 15 yds to the SJSU 44 for a 1ST down
24.4%
-0.2
Q1 7:41
Bryson Barnes sacked by Noah McNeal-Franklin for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSU 47
25.6%
+1.1
Q1 7:09
Anthony Garcia pass complete to Bryson Barnes for 5 yds to the SJSU 42
25.6%
0.0
Q1 6:34
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 4 yds to the SJSU 38
25.9%
+0.3
Q1 5:54
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 30 yds to the SJSU 8 for a 1ST down
25.0%
-0.9
Q1 5:11
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the SJSU 3
25.5%
+0.5
Q1 4:33
Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the SJSU 2
25.5%
0.0
Q1 4:00
Braden Pegan run for 2 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)
35.9%
+10.3
SJSU · Drive 3DOWNS · 11 plays · 54 yds
Q1 3:58
Zachary Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
34.7%
-1.2
Q1 3:58
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 5 yds to the SJSU 30
31.4%
-3.2
Q1 3:31
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 25 yds to the USU 45 for a 1ST down
31.4%
0.0
Q1 2:56
Lamar Radcliffe run for 3 yds to the USU 42
29.5%
-2.0
Q1 2:21
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny Scudero San José State Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the USU 47
29.2%
-0.3
Q1 2:18
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny Scudero, broken up by Noah Avinger
29.5%
+0.3
Q1 2:13
Walker Eget pass complete to Steve Chavez-Soto for 17 yds to the USU 30 for a 1ST down
29.5%
0.0
Q1 1:36
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 8 yds to the USU 22
29.9%
+0.4
Q1 1:00
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 1 yd to the USU 21
29.9%
0.0
Q1 0:20
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Matthew Coleman, broken up by Bryson Taylor
29.9%
0.0
Q1 0:15
Lamar Radcliffe run for no gain to the USU 21
30.5%
+0.7
USU · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q1 0:10
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the USU 22
35.5%
+4.9
Q2 15:00
Javen Jacobs run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 21
35.4%
-0.1
Q2 14:28
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 7 yds to the USU 28
39.9%
+4.5
Q2 13:52
Landon Rehkow punt for 40 yds
39.2%
-0.6
SJSU · Drive 5FUMBLE · 7 plays · 30 yds
Q2 13:47
Lamar Radcliffe run for 7 yds to the SJSU 39
34.3%
-4.9
Q2 13:08
Walker Eget pass complete to Cooper Hoch for 10 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST down
33.5%
-0.8
Q2 12:34
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Cooper Hoch
32.5%
-1.0
Q2 12:28
Lamar Radcliffe run for 4 yds to the USU 47
32.5%
0.0
Q2 11:47
Walker Eget run for 9 yds to the USU 38 for a 1ST down
33.7%
+1.2
Q2 11:13
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Jackson Canaan
33.2%
-0.5
Q2 11:09
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 15 yds Walker Eget fumbled, recovered by USU Bronson Olevao Jr.
33.2%
0.0
USU · Drive 6PUNT · 4 plays · 7 yds
Q2 10:57
Javen Jacobs run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line
44.2%
+11.0
Q2 10:28
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete
44.6%
+0.4
Q2 10:23
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Anthony Garcia
44.4%
-0.2
Q2 10:19
Landon Rehkow punt for 36 yds
43.7%
-0.7
SJSU · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · 18 yds
Q2 10:12
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 8 yds to the SJSU 22
38.3%
-5.4
Q2 9:48
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 10 yds to the SJSU 32 for a 1ST down
38.3%
0.0
Q2 9:16
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Jackson Canaan
38.3%
0.0
Q2 9:10
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Jackson Canaan, broken up by Ike Larsen
38.3%
0.0
Q2 9:06
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland Smith
38.3%
0.0
USU · Drive 8PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q2 8:47
Utah State Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the USU 13
43.6%
+5.3
Q2 8:47
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the USU 18
43.6%
0.0
Q2 8:13
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 4 yds to the USU 22
44.6%
+1.1
Q2 7:37
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden Pegan, broken up by Jalen Apalit-Williams
44.6%
0.0
Q2 7:33
Landon Rehkow punt for 46 yds
44.0%
-0.7
SJSU · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · 2 yds
Q2 7:25
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 6 yds to the SJSU 38
39.1%
-4.9
Q2 7:03
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny Scudero
38.2%
-0.9
Q2 6:59
Walker Eget run for 1 yd to the SJSU 39
38.2%
0.0
Q2 6:10
San José State Penalty, delay of game (Jahari Johnson) to the SJSU 34
40.3%
+2.0
Q2 6:10
Trent Carrizosa punt for 44 yds
40.8%
+0.5
USU · Drive 10DOWNS · 6 plays · 67 yds
Q2 6:03
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 27 yds to the USU 49 for a 1ST down
44.6%
+3.8
Q2 5:33
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Anthony Garcia for 32 yds to the SJSU 19 for a 1ST down
45.8%
+1.2
Q2 4:52
Brady Boyd run for 4 yds to the SJSU 15
46.3%
+0.5
Q2 4:20
Bryson Barnes run for 2 yds to the SJSU 13
46.3%
0.0
Q2 3:39
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Anthony Garcia
46.0%
-0.3
Q2 3:35
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 2 yds to the SJSU 11
45.3%
-0.7
SJSU · Drive 11TD · 7 plays · 89 yds
Q2 3:27
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 43 yds to the USU 46 for a 1ST down
41.0%
-4.3
Q2 2:52
Walker Eget run for 8 yds to the USU 38
38.7%
-2.2
Q2 2:16
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland Smith
38.0%
-0.7
Q2 2:13
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 3 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST down
38.0%
0.0
Q2 2:00
Walker Eget pass complete to Leland Smith for 14 yds to the USU 21 for a 1ST down
37.9%
-0.1
Q2 1:36
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 6 yds to the USU 15
37.9%
0.0
Q2 1:07
Lamar Radcliffe 15 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Mathias Brown PAT failed)
22.7%
-15.2
USU · Drive 12FG · 10 plays · 62 yds
Q2 0:59
Mathias Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
14.4%
-8.3
Q2 0:58
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 22 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST down
15.8%
+1.4
Q2 0:54
Bryson Barnes sacked by Gafa Faga and Quincy Likio for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 44
16.5%
+0.7
Q2 0:48
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete
16.3%
-0.2
Q2 0:41
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Braden Pegan for a 1ST down San José State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jaylen Thomas) to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST down
16.2%
-0.1
Q2 0:30
Bryson Barnes run for 21 yds to the SJSU 20 for a 1ST down
17.3%
+1.1
Q2 0:21
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Broc Lane
17.1%
-0.2
Q2 0:17
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 7 yds to the SJSU 13
17.1%
0.0
Q2 0:13
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Javen Jacobs
17.0%
-0.1
Q2 0:03
Tanner Rinker 31 Yd Field Goal
41.2%
+24.2
USU · Drive 13TD · 4 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Mathias Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
40.6%
-0.6
Q3 15:00
Bryson Barnes run for 2 yds to the USU 27
45.1%
+4.6
Q3 14:29
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 26
45.1%
0.0
Q3 13:55
Anthony Garcia 74 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)
55.7%
+10.6
SJSU · Drive 14TD · 4 plays · 75 yds
Q3 13:43
Zachary Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
55.5%
-0.2
Q3 13:43
Lamar Radcliffe run for 8 yds to the SJSU 33
53.3%
-2.2
Q3 13:08
Lamar Radcliffe run for 1 yd to the SJSU 34
55.1%
+1.8
Q3 12:32
Steve Chavez-Soto 66 Yd Run (Mathias Brown Kick)
37.3%
-17.8
USU · Drive 15TD · 11 plays · 75 yds
Q3 12:22
Mathias Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
37.3%
0.0
Q3 12:22
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 3 yds to the USU 28
42.5%
+5.2
Q3 11:54
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 6 yds to the USU 34
42.5%
0.0
Q3 11:27
Miles Davis run for no gain to the USU 34 for a 1ST down San José State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Etu Finau) to the USU 49 for a 1ST down
42.5%
0.0
Q3 11:14
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 37 yds to the SJSU 14 for a 1ST down
43.4%
+0.8
Q3 10:36
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the SJSU 11
44.1%
+0.7
Q3 10:06
Miles Davis run for 5 yds to the SJSU 6
44.1%
0.0
Q3 9:34
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Broc Lane
48.0%
+3.9
Q3 9:31
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the SJSU 3 for a 1ST down
47.2%
-0.8
Q3 8:53
Noah White run for 1 yd to the SJSU 2
48.2%
+1.0
Q3 8:20
Bryson Barnes 2 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)
63.6%
+15.3
SJSU · Drive 16FG · 15 plays · 58 yds
Q3 8:17
Zachary Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
62.5%
-1.0
Q3 8:17
Lamar Radcliffe run for 10 yds to the SJSU 35 for a 1ST down
60.2%
-2.4
Q3 7:44
Lamar Radcliffe run for 4 yds to the SJSU 39
60.2%
0.0
Q3 7:04
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 4 yds to the SJSU 43
60.2%
0.0
Q3 6:23
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 4 yds to the SJSU 47 for a 1ST down
60.5%
+0.3
Q3 5:46
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Kyri Shoels
60.5%
0.0
Q3 5:41
Lamar Radcliffe run for 4 yds to the USU 49
60.5%
0.0
Q3 5:01
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 10 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST down
59.8%
-0.6
Q3 4:30
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 4 yds to the USU 35
59.1%
-0.7
Q3 3:51
Steve Chavez-Soto run for 1 yd to the USU 34
58.8%
-0.3
Q3 3:10
Walker Eget pass complete to Cooper Hoch for 13 yds to the USU 21 for a 1ST down
58.8%
0.0
Q3 2:35
Lamar Radcliffe run for 5 yds to the USU 16
58.8%
0.0
Q3 2:00
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 17
61.0%
+2.2
Q3 1:19
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland Smith
61.0%
0.0
Q3 1:10
Denis Lynch 35 Yd Field Goal
45.6%
-15.4
USU · Drive 17PUNT · 8 plays · 25 yds
Q3 1:10
Mathias Brown kickoff for 64 yds , Miles Davis return for 20 yds to the USU 21
38.0%
-7.5
Q3 1:04
Javen Jacobs run for 10 yds to the USU 31 for a 1ST down
42.8%
+4.8
Q3 0:30
Javen Jacobs run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 30
42.8%
0.0
Q4 15:00
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 11 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST down
42.8%
0.0
Q4 14:30
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the USU 41
43.4%
+0.6
Q4 14:02
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 6 yds to the USU 47
43.4%
0.0
Q4 13:26
Bryson Barnes sacked by Jordan Pollard for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 46
43.4%
0.0
Q4 12:45
Landon Rehkow punt for 29 yds Utah State Penalty, kick catching interference (Bronson Olevao Jr.) to the SJSU 40
43.7%
+0.3
SJSU · Drive 18TD · 5 plays · 60 yds
Q4 12:39
Lamar Radcliffe run for 5 yds to the SJSU 45
37.2%
-6.6
Q4 12:07
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Kyri Shoels
36.4%
-0.8
Q4 12:02
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Kyri Shoels, broken up by Ike Larsen for a 1ST down Utah State Penalty, Defensive holding (Bryson Taylor) to the USU 45 for a 1ST down
36.4%
0.0
Q4 11:56
Leland Smith 45 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
23.0%
-13.3
Q4 11:56
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Matthew Coleman
11.8%
-11.3
USU · Drive 19FG · 15 plays · 48 yds
Q4 11:48
Mathias Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
12.6%
+0.8
Q4 11:48
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Javen Jacobs, broken up by Jaylen Thomas
14.4%
+1.8
Q4 11:42
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Braden Pegan for 9 yds to the USU 34
14.4%
0.0
Q4 11:09
Miles Davis run for 5 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST down
14.3%
-0.1
Q4 10:37
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Miles Davis San José State Penalty, Offensive holding (George Maile) to the USU 39
14.4%
+0.1
Q4 10:26
Javen Jacobs run for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 36
14.1%
-0.2
Q4 9:54
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Broc Lane for 5 yds to the USU 41
14.0%
-0.1
Q4 9:18
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Broc Lane San José State Penalty, Offensive holding (Jr Sia) to the USU 41
16.8%
+2.8
Q4 9:12
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Brady Boyd for 18 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST down
16.8%
0.0
Q4 9:03
Miles Davis run for 14 yds to the SJSU 27 for a 1ST down
18.4%
+1.6
Q4 8:40
Miles Davis run for 4 yds to the SJSU 23
18.1%
-0.3
Q4 8:05
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the SJSU 18
18.1%
0.0
Q4 7:18
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the SJSU 18 Utah State Penalty, Offensive holding (Jr Sia) to the SJSU 28
15.3%
-2.7
Q4 6:56
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the SJSU 27
15.3%
0.0
Q4 6:13
Tanner Rinker 45 Yd Field Goal
57.4%
+42.1
SJSU · Drive 20DOWNS · 8 plays · 22 yds
Q4 6:09
Zachary Robbins kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
72.7%
+15.2
Q4 6:09
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny Scudero
63.9%
-8.7
Q4 6:05
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 4 yds to the SJSU 29
63.9%
0.0
Q4 5:21
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 9 yds to the SJSU 38 for a 1ST down
63.9%
0.0
Q4 4:52
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Danny Scudero, broken up by Bryson Taylor
64.2%
+0.3
Q4 4:45
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 6 yds to the SJSU 44
64.2%
0.0
Q4 4:02
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 3 yds to the SJSU 47
63.9%
-0.4
Q4 3:57
Steve Chavez-Soto run for no gain to the SJSU 47
62.8%
-1.0
USU · Drive 21FG · 6 plays · 21 yds
Q4 3:41
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the SJSU 45
76.5%
+13.6
Q4 2:55
Miles Davis run for 14 yds to the SJSU 31 for a 1ST down
77.3%
+0.8
Q4 2:14
Braden Pegan run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 33
80.4%
+3.2
Q4 2:11
Bryson Barnes run for 9 yds to the SJSU 24
80.4%
0.0
Q4 2:03
Javen Jacobs run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 26
81.3%
+0.9
Q4 1:58
Tanner Rinker 44 Yd Field Goal
81.3%
0.0
SJSU · Drive 22DOWNS · 13 plays · 45 yds
Q4 1:53
Zachary Robbins kickoff for 65 yds , Jahari Johnson return for 18 yds to the SJSU 18
83.4%
+2.1
Q4 1:48
Walker Eget pass complete to Danny Scudero for 5 yds to the SJSU 23
75.6%
-7.7
Q4 1:26
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 5 yds to the SJSU 28 for a 1ST down
75.6%
0.0
Q4 1:12
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Matthew Coleman
75.6%
0.0
Q4 1:04
San José State Penalty, false start (Peseti Lapuaho) to the SJSU 23
75.6%
0.0
Q4 1:04
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 11 yds to the SJSU 34
75.6%
0.0
Q4 0:34
San José State Penalty, false start (Nate Hale) to the SJSU 29
76.9%
+1.3
Q4 0:34
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Matthew Coleman
76.9%
0.0
Q4 0:29
Walker Eget pass complete to Kyri Shoels for 26 yds to the USU 45 for a 1ST down
76.9%
0.0
Q4 0:15
San José State Penalty, false start (Kyri Shoels) to the 50 yard line
76.5%
-0.4
Q4 0:15
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Leland Smith, broken up by Noah Avinger
76.5%
0.0
Q4 0:07
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 13 yds to the USU 37
77.5%
+1.0
Q4 0:04
Walker Eget pass incomplete to Cooper Hoch, broken up by Brevin Hamblin
79.3%
+1.8
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 6:13
Tanner Rinker 45 Yd Field Goal
+42.1
FG · Q2 0:03
Tanner Rinker 31 Yd Field Goal
+24.2
TD · Q3 12:32
Steve Chavez-Soto 66 Yd Run (Mathias Brown Kick)
-17.8
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com