2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreDSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:21 · Billy Kinney punt for 56 yds, downed at the DelSt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:45: Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 28 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:23: Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 16 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5DSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 9:42WVU 4th & 4 at DSU 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−<0.193% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:35DSU 4th & 1 at DSU 34, down 10Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:35DSU 4th & 7 at WVU 7, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%91% to makePunt-0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 12:58DSU 4th & 12 at DSU 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 10:38DSU 4th & 1 at WVU 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%71% to convertField goal0.1%−0.254% to makePunt0.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 6:17DSU 4th & 19 at DSU 37, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 15:00DSU 4th & 20 at DSU 46, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 6:40DSU 4th & 8 at DSU 20, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 3:50WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 45, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 14:56WVU 4th & 3 at DSU 39, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%53% to convertField goal99.9%−0.136% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:47WVU 4th & 2 at WVU 40, up 43Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:37DSU 4th & 3 at DSU 21, down 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 2:21WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 21, up 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8DSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 14:07WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 12:20DSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:41WVU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:20WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:45WVU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:23WVU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:50WVU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:46WVU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:15WVU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:51DSU Touchdown, down 43 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick0.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1TD5 plays · 18 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+11
99.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 11 yds to the DelSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 2TD4 plays · 87 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q1 12:20
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+81
99.9%
Jack McDaniels pass complete to Nyfease West for 81 yds for a TD, (Wisdom Nzidee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3FG11 plays · 62 yds · 2:34100% → 100%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.9%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 5 yds to the DelSt 40Similar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
99.9%
Grier, Will sacked for loss of 12 yards to the DSU45 (DE LOS SANTOS,U), NO PLAY, PENALTY DSU face mask (DE LOS SANTOS,U) 15 yards to the DSU18, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
99.9%
Will Grier sacked by Alexander Lozano for a loss of 4 yards to the DelSt 22Similar
Q1 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 4 yds to the DelSt 4Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Will Grier pass incomplete to David Sills V, broken up by Keyjuan SelbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5TD5 plays · 25 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.8%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Gary Jennings, broken up by Issiah SmallSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
99.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 9 yds to the DelSt 16Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+13
99.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 13 yds to the DelSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
WVUDrive 7FUMBLE3 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
99.8%
Will Grier run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 11 Will Grier fumbled, recovered by WVirg Will GrierSimilar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 8
OWN 11
-5
99.8%
Will Grier run for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 6 Will Grier fumbled, recovered by DelSt Ulises De Los SantosSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 8FG5 plays · -1 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q1 5:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.8%
DELAWARE ST Penalty, delay of game (Wisdom Nzidee) to the WVirg 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9TD2 plays · 62 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
99.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 62 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 4:20
2ND & 11
OPP 29
-5
99.8%
DELAWARE ST Penalty, false start (Kamari Jackson) to the WVirg 34Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 12
OPP 30
-11
99.8%
Jack McDaniels sacked by Ezekiel Rose for a loss of 11 yards to the WVirg 41Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 23
OPP 41
-5
99.8%
DELAWARE ST Penalty, delay of game (Fidel Romo-Martinez) to the WVirg 46Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 28
OPP 46
-5
99.8%
ROMO-MARTINEZ,F punt 42 yards to the WVU4, downed, NO PLAY, PENALTY DSU illegal formation 5 yards to the DSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11FUMBLE1 play · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
99.7%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 25 yds Gary Jennings fumbled, recovered by DelSt Devin SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 12INT3 plays · -15 yds · 0:460% → 0%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Jack McDaniels run for a loss of 6 yards to the DelSt 32 Jack McDaniels fumbled, recovered by DelSt Mike Waters , return for no gain to the DelSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 24
OWN 32
-1
99.7%
Jack McDaniels pass complete to Mike Waters for a loss of 1 yard to the DelSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 25
OWN 31
+24
99.7%
Jack McDaniels pass intercepted Dravon Askew-Henry return for 24 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 13:54
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
99.7%
Will Grier pass intercepted Nigel Bynum return for no gain to the DelSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
WVUDrive 15TD3 plays · 70 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q2 11:23
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+33
99.6%
Justin Crawford run for 18 yds to the WESTVIR 43 for a 1ST down DELAWARE ST Penalty, illegal block (Keyjuan Selby) to the DelSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
99.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 28 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 16DOWNS6 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17TD5 plays · 69 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
99.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Martell Pettaway for 16 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
99.8%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 9 yds to the DelSt 24Similar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 16 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Jack McDaniels pass complete to Bryant Dallas for 5 yds to the DelSt 36Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-13
99.9%
Jack McDaniels sacked by Al-Rasheed Benton for a loss of 13 yards to the DelSt 32Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 24
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
ROMO-MARTINEZ,F punt 36 yards to the WVU32, out-of-bounds, PENALTY WVU roughing the kicker (Sills V, D.) 5 yards to the DSU37, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19TD7 plays · 78 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 3 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
Will Grier pass complete to David Sills V for 14 yds to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 4 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+48
99.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 48 yds to the DelSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Will Grier pass incomplete to Ka'Raun White, broken up by Keyjuan SelbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 20END OF HALF3 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
DSUDrive 21PUNT11 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
99.9%
Jack McDaniels pass complete to Giovanni Downie for 11 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
99.9%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Mike Daniels Jr.) to the DelSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-6
99.9%
Jack McDaniels sacked by Dylan Tonkery for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22TD13 plays · 80 yds · 4:10100% → 100%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
99.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Gary Jennings for 18 yds to the DelSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
99.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+7
99.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 7 yds to the DelSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 4 yds to the DelSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
99.9%
Jack McDaniels pass complete to Fatu Sua-Godinet for 3 yds to the DelSt 21Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-7
100.0%
Jack McDaniels pass complete to Nyfease West for 8 yds to the DelSt 31 DELAWARE ST Penalty, illegal block (Ulises De Los Santos) to the DelSt 16Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+8
100.0%
Fidel Romo-Martinez punt for 37 yds , Tevin Bush returns for 8 yds to the WVirg 28 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the WVirg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
99.9%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 5 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-10
99.9%
Chugunov, Chris pass complete to Rogers, Ricky for loss of 1 yard to the WVU47 (HARRIS,M.;SELBY,K.), PENALTY WVU holding (Marenco III, A) 10 yards to the WVU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+7
99.9%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 7 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 25FUMBLE5 plays · 37 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
100.0%
Brycen Alleyne run for a loss of 1 yard to the DelSt 46 Brycen Alleyne fumbled, recovered by WVirg Lamonte McDougleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 26TD8 plays · 46 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
DSUDrive 27TD13 plays · 82 yds · 6:180% → 0%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
100.0%
Keenan Black pass complete to Nyfease West for 19 yds to the DelSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
100.0%
TEAM run for no gain to the DelSt 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by DelSt Keenan Black , return for 6 yds to the DelSt 38Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+15
100.0%
BLACK,K. pass incomplete to KOLLIE,K., QB hurry by Gross Jr., M, PENALTY WVU pass interference (Bailey, Hakeem) 15 yards to the WVU44, 1ST DOWN DSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
100.0%
Keenan Black pass complete to Bryant Dallas for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 8Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
100.0%
Keenan Black pass complete to Kwannah Kollie for 8 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
DSUDrive 29PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:37
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Fidel Romo-Martinez punt for 55 yds , Tevin Bush returns for no gain to the WVirg 21 Tevin Bush fumbled, recovered by WVirgSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 30PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:45
Will Grier pass complete to Ka'Raun White for 28 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 6:23
Will Grier pass complete to Marcus Simms for 16 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)
+0.1