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TXST

Texas State 16 at Georgia State 28

GAST
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:51 · Michael Hayes punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+15.4Home team on offense+2.8Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:30: Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 35 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +3.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:46: Brady McBride run for 8 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +5.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:10: Jamyest Williams run for 28 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +9.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:57: Seth Keller 31 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +7.7 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:54: Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 27 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +12.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 22 at GAST 32, tied
    Close callWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    23.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:08GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:02TXST 4th & 4 at GAST 25, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:24TXST 4th & 7 at GAST 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:01TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 10, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:18GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:20TXST 4th & 20 at TXST 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:24GAST 4th & 15 at GAST 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:03TXST 4th & 14 at GAST 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:51GAST 4th & 9 at TXST 45, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:34TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 22, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:34GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.1%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:57TXST 4th & 5 at GAST 14, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−10.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54TXST 4th & 2 at GAST 44, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−2.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:46GAST 4th & 6 at TXST 23, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:54GAST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:30GAST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:46TXST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:10GAST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:54GAST Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1FG
14 plays · 39 yds · 3:5819% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
81.1%
Calvin Hill run for 8 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
81.1%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
81.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+20
81.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 20 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
81.1%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
81.1%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+5
81.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Offsides enforced (5 Yards) to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+5
81.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
81.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 3 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
81.1%
Brady McBride run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-15
81.1%
MCBRIDE, Brady pass to the left complete for 12 yards to BARBEE, Marcell caught at the GSU0 and advanced to the GSU1, End of Play. PENALTY TXS Pass Interference on BARBEE, Marcell enforced 15 yards to the GSU28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 28
-4
81.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 22
OPP 32
+5
81.1%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 25 fumbled, recovered by TexSt Calvin HillSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+42
79.4%
Seth Keller 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5480% → 79%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.8%
Terrance Dixon run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
79.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
79.8%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
79.3%
Michael Hayes punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:0621% → 23%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
79.5%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
79.5%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+23
79.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 23 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
79.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 11 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
79.2%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+10
79.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 10 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
79.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 6 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
79.1%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
79.2%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
77.4%
Seth Keller 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:5178% → 77%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.7%
Darren Grainger run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
77.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
77.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
78.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 10 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
77.4%
Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4724% → 25%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
76.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 8 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+5
75.9%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
75.8%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
75.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 3 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
75.9%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
75.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds, downed at the GeoSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 99 yds · 2:3076% → 79%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
75.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+21
75.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 21 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
75.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 15 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
76.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 27 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
77.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 7 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+6
77.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 6 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
79.0%
Jamyest Williams run for 18 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5322% → 22%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
77.7%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
77.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the TexSt 10Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
78.2%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
78.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
78.4%
GRAINGER, Darren pass to the right complete for 12 yards to DIXON, Terrance caught at the GSU45 and advanced to the TXS41 (LEFEGED JR., Troy). PENALTY GSU Holding on PAYNE, Aubry enforced 10 yards from the GSU47 to the GSU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:3078% → 82%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+25
77.6%
Darren Grainger run for 25 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
78.6%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+35
81.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 35 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 4:4419% → 27%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
81.0%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
81.3%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+14
81.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 14 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
80.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Jackson Lanam) to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+1
81.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 1 yd to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+26
81.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 26 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
79.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 5 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+7
78.9%
Brady McBride run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
78.9%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+10
78.9%
Brady McBride run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
78.9%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
78.9%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
73.5%
Brady McBride run for 8 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:2876% → 75%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
75.8%
Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
75.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.5%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
76.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 3 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
75.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 7
OWN 39
-5
75.3%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
74.6%
Michael Hayes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5825% → 25%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
74.8%
Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
73.9%
Brock Sturges run for no gain to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 3
OWN 36
-5
74.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+13
75.6%
MCBRIDE, Brady pass to the right incomplete intended for BARBEE, Marcell thrown to the TXS39; QB hurried by MCCOLLUM, Shamar and CLARK, Jeffery. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on WHITE, Quavian enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the TXS44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
73.5%
Brady McBride run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
73.0%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 27
OWN 39
+7
75.3%
Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 20
OWN 46
0
75.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Terrance Dixon at the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5675% → 73%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
75.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+5
75.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.2%
Jamyest Williams run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
74.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Sam Pinckney) to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
74.0%
run for no gain to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
72.6%
Michael Hayes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:2129% → 26%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
71.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 2 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-3
71.3%
Brady McBride run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+13
73.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 13 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
70.9%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
71.0%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Marcell Barbee) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 15
50
+1
72.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 14
OPP 49
0
72.9%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
74.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Terrance Dixon at the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5374% → 73%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
73.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+6
74.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+1
73.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:0974% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
74.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 18 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
76.0%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
75.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 5 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+6
75.5%
Jamyest Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
76.7%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
76.5%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
75.6%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
72.9%
Michael Hayes punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1727% → 26%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 16
OWN 7
+1
73.3%
Brady McBride run for 1 yd to the TexSt 8Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 15
OWN 8
0
73.5%
Brady McBride sacked by Blake Carroll for 0 yards to the TexSt 4Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 19
OWN 4
+18
74.4%
Calvin Hill run for 18 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-9
73.0%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chandler Speights) to the TexSt 7Similar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
74.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:2473% → 85%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
72.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
72.7%
GRAINGER, Darren pass to the right incomplete intended for THRASH, Jamari broken up by WILLIAMS, DC at the GSU46. PENALTY TXS Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, DC GSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SUMTER, Malik , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
72.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 7 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
73.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+14
72.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 14 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
75.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 6 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+10
75.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 10 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
85.4%
Jamyest Williams run for 28 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:1318% → 29%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
82.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
81.7%
Brady McBride sacked by Jamil Muhammad for 0 yards to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+6
82.5%
Brady McBride run for 6 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+17
82.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
50
+18
79.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 18 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
78.5%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+13
78.6%
Brock Sturges run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+4
79.5%
Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
80.9%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
79.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 1 yd to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
70.9%
Seth Keller 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0377% → 92%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
77.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
76.5%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
77.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 5 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+11
79.3%
Darren Grainger run for 11 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
79.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
79.4%
Darren Grainger run for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
80.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+3
80.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+1
79.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
91.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 27 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20INT
14 plays · 46 yds · 5:1912% → 9%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
88.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
87.1%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+1
87.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 1 yd to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+15
88.2%
MCBRIDE, Brady pass to the right incomplete intended for BANKS, Javen broken up by BROWN, Bryquice at the TXS45. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on BROWN, Bryquice enforced 15 yards to the TXS48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
86.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 1 yd to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+1
86.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 8
50
+6
86.6%
Brady McBride run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+4
86.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
85.3%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
85.5%
Brady McBride run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+5
85.1%
MCBRIDE, Brady pass to the left incomplete intended for GRAHAM, JR., Trevis broken up by JONES, Jaylon at the GSU0. PENALTY GSU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the GSU34 to the GSU29 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
84.3%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
84.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 15
OPP 34
0
91.5%
Brady McBride pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21MISSED FG
19 plays · 74 yds · 9:3595% → 99%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
94.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+4
94.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+6
94.7%
Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+26
95.0%
Darren Grainger run for 26 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
95.5%
Jamyest Williams run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 3
50
+2
95.5%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
95.3%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
95.6%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+1
95.5%
Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+16
95.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Roger Carter for 16 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
95.0%
Jamyest Williams run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
97.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+3
97.9%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-4
98.4%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+41
98.2%
Noel Ruiz 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
98.6%
PENALTY TXS Unsportsmanlike Conduct on MASK, DeJordan GSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on GILMORE, Shamarious , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22FUMBLE
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:472% → 3%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
98.2%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+17
98.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 17 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
98.1%
Brady McBride run for 17 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+25
97.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 25 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
97.4%
Brady McBride run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+8
97.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 8 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-1
97.4%
Brady McBride run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 27 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)
+12.5
TD · Q3 8:10
Jamyest Williams run for 28 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)
+9.8
FG · Q3 3:57
Seth Keller 31 yd FG GOOD
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com