Georgia State

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0727th
  Defense+0.249th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.2%34th
  Defense47.6%8th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3070th
  Defense+1.2069th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0223rd
  Defense+0.1814th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1335th
  Defense+0.328th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.6%27th
  Defense51.7%14th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.3%56th
  Defense37.7%7th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9436th
  Defense3.3612th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.0%30th
  Defense14.6%17th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.9%23rd
  Defense13.7%15th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   GT
2. W
   UTC
3. W
   VAN
4. L
   GASO
5. L
   ODU
6. L
   MRSH
7. L
   APP
8. L
   CONN
9. L
   JMU
10. L
    ARST
11. W
    TXST
12. L
    CCU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia State.

Players, 2024

1. Zach GibsonQB168 plays · +0.281 pts/play · 97th of 232 QBs
   0.89WAR0.53 to 1.22
2. Christian VeilleuxQB246 plays · +0.103 pts/play · 132nd of 232 QBs
   0.47WAR0.04 to 0.93
3. Freddie Brock IVRB145 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 63rd of 373 RBs
   0.35WAR0.24 to 0.44
4. Ted HurstWR48 plays · +0.353 pts/play · 6th of 452 WRs
   0.32WAR0.18 to 0.45
5. Michel DukesRB88 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 110th of 373 RBs
   0.26WAR0.17 to 0.36
6. Dorian FlemingTE48 plays · +0.122 pts/play · 22nd of 221 TEs
   0.11WAR−0.01 to 0.24
7. Liam RickmanPK15 plays · +0.275 pts/play · 60th of 114 kickers
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.12
8. Talique WilliamsWR13 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 296th of 452 WRs
   0.03WAR0.00 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  56556591st of 131Roster talent: 565, 91st of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  124124109th of 131Recruiting: 124, 109th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  31%31%96th of 130Returning production: 31%, 96th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −17.9−17.9120th of 131SP+ rating: −17.9, 120th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at MRSHQ4 14:51 4th & 2 at MRSH 2, down 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.0 pts
2. vs UTCQ4 14:09 4th & 4 at UTC 43, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
3. at CONNQ3 4:36 4th & 3 at CONN 3, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
4. vs UTCQ3 2:49 4th & 2 at GAST 38, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
5. at TXSTQ3 2:49 4th & 6 at TXST 42, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. vs ODUQ4 9:07 4th & 5 at ODU 24, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
7. at GTQ2 3:49 4th & 2 at GT 2, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. at MRSHQ4 1:56 4th & 10 at MRSH 12, down 8Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

105th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   GT
2. W

   UTC
3. W

   VAN
4. L

   GASO
5. L

   ODU
6. L

   MRSH
7. L

   APP
8. L

   CONN
9. L

   JMU
10. L

    ARST
11. W

    TXST
12. L

    CCU

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Georgia State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−2.25
• Possession & field position+0.07
• Clock−0.12
• Timeouts+0.07
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.99

Game by game

• GTL 12-35 at GT6% → 0%Before kickoff −44 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −10
• UTCW 24-21 vs UTC76% → 96%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +24, Timeouts +2
• VANW 36-32 vs VAN24% → 83%Before kickoff −26 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +20, Possession & field position +3
• GASOL 21-38 vs GASO57% → 1%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −54, Clock −6
• ODUL 14-21 vs ODU56% → 6%Before kickoff +6 · On the field −50: Scoreboard −52, Clock −3
• MRSHL 20-35 at MRSH26% → 0%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −28
• APPL 26-33 at APP24% → 3%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −31, Timeouts +4
• CONNL 27-34 at CONN28% → 3%Before kickoff −22 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −31, Timeouts +3
• JMUL 7-38 at JMU17% → 0%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −19
• ARSTL 20-27 vs ARST49% → 5%Before kickoff −1 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −49, Clock −3
• TXSTW 52-44 at TXST7% → 97%Before kickoff −43 · On the field +91: Scoreboard +55, Clock +3
• CCUL 27-48 vs CCU48% → 0%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −48: Scoreboard −49, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Georgia State's side.

Closest call

GAST 42-40 CCU (2021) - Georgia State dropped to a 1.4% win probability before pulling it out.