2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreCCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:13 · Kyle Lowe pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:16: Ethan Vasko pass complete to Zach Courtney for 5 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +10.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:56: Christian Washington run for 18 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +11.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:44: Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 31 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +15.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:25: Freddie Brock run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — GAST win probability +13.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:50: Ethan Vasko run for 10 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 11:38CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snapGo for it47.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.6%average punt
- Q2 14:07GAST 4th & 8 at CCU 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.1% before the snapGo for it47.3%−0.629% to convertField goalTheir call47.9%87% to makePunt43.0%−4.8average punt
- Q3 13:24GAST 4th & 18 at GAST 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snapGo for it34.9%−4.312% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.2%average punt
- Q3 7:06GAST 4th & 12 at CCU 12, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snapGo for it21.3%−1.419% to convertField goalTheir call22.7%86% to makePunt16.6%−6.1average punt
- Q4 9:50CCU 4th & 1 at GAST 10, up 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.2%71% to convertField goal85.9%−3.388% to makePunt76.8%−12.4average punt
- Q4 8:33CCU 4th & 5 at GAST 5, up 19Close callKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.9%33% to convertField goalTheir call96.9%−<0.192% to makePunt93.5%−3.4average punt
- Q4 7:13GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 29, down 22Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.7%average punt
- Q4 4:36GAST 4th & 6 at CCU 6, down 29Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%31% to convertField goal0.3%−0.191% to makePunt0.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 3:13GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 42, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−<0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.9%average punt
- Q4 1:49CCU 4th & 5 at GAST 37, up 21Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%42% to convertField goal99.3%−<0.140% to makePuntTheir call99.3%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 8:15CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.8%97% to makeGo for two48.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:38GAST Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.1%97% to makeGo for two57.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:16CCU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.9%97% to makeGo for two51.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:56CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.4%97% to makeGo for two71.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:44CCU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two86.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:25GAST Touchdown, down 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick18.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call18.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:50CCU Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%−0.397% to makeGo for two95.8%45% to convert
- Q4 7:13CCU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:36GAST Touchdown, down 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick1.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCCUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 3:1352% → 51%
Q1 13:50
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+18
48.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Kendall Karr for 18 yds to the CCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
49.0%
Christian Veilleux pass intercepted Matthew McDoom return for 5 yds to the GAST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3TD6 plays · 25 yds · 3:0152% → 54%
Q1 8:15
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
46.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 10 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4INT3 plays · -1 yds · 0:3247% → 47%
Q1 7:27
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
46.6%
Christian Veilleux pass intercepted Matthew McDoom return for no gain to the CCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5INT5 plays · 22 yds · 1:5054% → 55%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
45.8%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Clev Lubin) to the CCU 25Similar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 25
OWN 25
+26
46.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 26 yds to the GAST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
45.2%
Kyre Duplessis pass intercepted Ja'Maric Morris return for no gain to the GAST 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6FG16 plays · 83 yds · 6:2746% → 49%
Q1 3:50
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+7
46.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 7 yds to the GAST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+21
45.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Freddie Brock for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
50
-2
46.7%
Christian Veilleux sacked by Deamontae Diggs for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 48Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+19
45.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 19 yds to the CCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7INT4 plays · 24 yds · 1:4152% → 54%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
45.7%
Ethan Vasko pass intercepted Jyron Gilmore return for no gain to the GAST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD7 plays · 70 yds · 3:3148% → 57%
CCUDrive 9TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1746% → 59%
Q2 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+12
52.9%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 12 yds to the GAST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+24
51.8%
Christian Washington run for 24 yds to the GAST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
41.4%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Zach Courtney for 5 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10FUMBLE10 plays · 64 yds · 2:2346% → 47%
Q2 3:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-8
47.8%
Christian Veilleux sacked by Clev Lubin for a loss of 8 yards to the GAST 25Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
44.4%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 12 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
46.6%
Christian Veilleux run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
47.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 4 yds to the CCU 36Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+23
47.2%
Christian Veilleux run for 23 yds to the CCU 11 Christian Veilleux fumbled, recovered by CCU Tobias Fletcher T. Fletcher return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11FG18 plays · 64 yds · 1:3156% → 66%
Q2 1:16
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+2
42.8%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 2 yds to the CCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
43.8%
(01:08) VASKO, Ethan scrambles to the left for a gain of 13 yards to the CCU34 (WATSON, Kenyatta), out of bounds, clock 01:04. PENALTY CCU Holding on HANSON, Joseph enforced 10 yards from the CCU21 to the CCU11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
42.3%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Kendall Karr for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+12
42.7%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 12 yds to the GAST 43Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
39.0%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 13 yds to the GAST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3239% → 36%
CCUDrive 13TD5 plays · 40 yds · 2:2467% → 79%
GASTDrive 14FG11 plays · 58 yds · 3:3724% → 27%
Q3 10:08
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
24.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for no gain to the GAST 33Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+28
22.6%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 28 yds to the CCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
25.1%
VEILLEUX, Christian pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LANEY, Rykem thrown to the CCU15, clock 08:50. PENALTY CCU Pass Interference on POWELL, Juan declined CCU Roughing the Passer on BROWN, Tray enforced 15 yards from the CCU39 to the CCU24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+20
24.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to DJ Riles for 20 yds to the CCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
24.7%
Georgia State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (CJ Beasley) to the CCU 16Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
-4
23.8%
Georgia State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-4 Yards) to the CCU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1873% → 93%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
26.8%
Christian Washington run for 10 yds to the CCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
24.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 6 yds to the CCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
22.4%
Christian Washington run for 12 yds to the GAST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
7.1%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 31 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD5 plays · 76 yds · 2:0112% → 25%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
11.6%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 2 yds to the GAST 26Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+10
10.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 10 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
11.3%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to DJ Riles for 6 yds to the GAST 42Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+57
11.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 57 yds to the CCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.0%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17TD12 plays · 78 yds · 5:2784% → 97%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-5
15.5%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, False Start (Joseph Hanson) to the CCU 26Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+41
12.6%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Kyre Duplessis for 41 yds to the GAST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-5
10.3%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, False Start (Heston Edwards) to the GAST 19Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
10.5%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Cane Berrong for 7 yds to the GAST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-38
4.9%
Christian Veilleux pass intercepted Tobias Fletcher return for 38 yds to the GAST 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19FG4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4497% → 98%
GASTDrive 20INT TD4 plays · 4 yds · 1:142% → 0%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 6 yds to the GAST 31Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-2
2.0%
Christian Veilleux sacked by Deamontae Diggs for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 29Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-39
0.2%
Christian Veilleux pass intercepted Tobias Fletcher return for 39 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:260% → 2%
GASTDrive 22DOWNS5 plays · -3 yds · 1:161% → 1%
Q4 4:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-9
1.4%
Kyle Lowe sacked by Travis Nesbitt for a loss of 9 yards to the GAST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 1:49
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+27
0.4%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 27 yds , Jyron Gilmore returns for no gain to the GAST 10 , returns for no gain to the GAST 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:44
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 31 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q3 0:25
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+13.4
TD · Q3 10:56
Christian Washington run for 18 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
-11.3