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GAST

Georgia State 52 at Texas State 44

TXST
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:12 · Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 22 yds to the TXST 7 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Pregame prior+37.8Home team on offense+1.3Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:54: Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 21 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +12.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:14: Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 11 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +9.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:21: Freddie Brock run for 57 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +12.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:25: Beau Sparks 80 Yd Punt Return (Jordan McCloud Pass to Chris Dawn Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — TXST win probability +10.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:52: Lincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Jordan McCloud Pass to Lincoln Pare for Two-Point Conversion) — TXST win probability +11.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:46TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:46TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:56TXST 4th & 1 at GAST 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:19GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:12GAST 4th & 4 at TXST 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 44, tied
    Close callWent for it · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:19TXST 4th & 8 at GAST 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:11GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:00TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.1%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:09TXST 4th & 1 at GAST 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−10.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:16GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 1, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−5.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:49GAST 4th & 6 at TXST 42, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−2.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:10TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−3.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:25GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 22, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:25TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:57GAST 4th & 11 at midfield, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:10TXST 4th & 3 at GAST 7, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:40GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:56TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:49TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:39GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:26TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:40GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:54GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:14GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:21GAST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:25TXST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:16GAST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:05TXST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:52TXST Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.6 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.4%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:0593% → 93%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 12 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
93.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 38Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-2
93.1%
Beau Sparks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 36Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
93.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
93.0%
Lars Rau punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Cadarrius Thompson at the GAST 34Similar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
93.0%
Lars Rau punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Cadarrius Thompson at the GAST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 1:547% → 8%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
93.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 13 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
92.8%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Petey TuckerSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
92.8%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Veilleux,Christian pass incomplete short right to Fleming,Dorian thrown to TXST40 broken up by Webb,Terry PENALTY TXST Roughing The Passer (Webb,Terry) 15 yards from GSU47 to TXST38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
92.7%
Freddie Brock run for 2 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
92.6%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Petey TuckerSimilar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+13
92.5%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 13 yds to the TXST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
92.0%
Michel Dukes run for 23 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3792% → 92%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
92.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 16 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
92.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 44Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+22
91.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 22 yds to the GAST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
90.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+5
90.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds to the GAST 25Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
90.7%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the GAST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
90.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 4 yds to the GAST 18Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+18
91.8%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 18 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:199% → 9%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
91.3%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the GAST 14Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 9
OWN 14
-7
91.2%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun Veilleux,Christian pass complete short right to Dukes,Michel caught at GSU09, for 7 yards to the GSU21 (Nolan,Ryan), out of bounds PENALTY GSU Holding (Fleming,Dorian) 7 yards from GSU14 to GSU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 16
OWN 7
+8
91.1%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 8 yds to the GAST 15Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
91.1%
Georgia State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gavin Pringle) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+40
91.1%
James Allen punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GAST 16 , Beau Sparks returns for 40 yds to the GAST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:2591% → 92%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
91.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the GAST 10Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+10
92.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 10 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:598% → 11%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
91.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Petey Tucker for 29 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
91.4%
Freddie Brock run for 6 yds to the TXST 40Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+5
91.2%
Freddie Brock run for 5 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
90.9%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Dorian FlemingSimilar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
90.9%
Michel Dukes run for 6 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
91.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Michel DukesSimilar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+22
91.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 22 yds to the TXST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
88.8%
Freddie Brock run for 7 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 17:3493% → 91%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+10
93.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 10 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+1
93.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 1 yd to the TXST 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+8
93.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 8 yds to the GAST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 8 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
89.9%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 5 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
89.6%
(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass incomplete short middle to Williams,Jaden thrown to GSU44 PENALTY TXST Illegal Forward Pass (Todd,Chayse) 5 yards from TXST38 to TXST33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
89.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the GAST 45Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
89.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the GAST 41Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+20
89.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 20 yds to the GAST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
89.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 16 yds to the GAST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
89.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 6Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3710% → 16%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.0%
Christian Veilleux run for 1 yd to the GAST 26Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
89.9%
(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Veilleux,Christian pass complete deep right to Laney,Rykem caught at GSU46, for 21 yards to the GSU47 (Moore,Trez) PENALTY GSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Robinson,Lamar) 5 yards from GSU26 to GSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+17
90.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Michel Dukes for 17 yds to the GAST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
89.3%
Freddie Brock run for 4 yds to the GAST 42Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
88.9%
Freddie Brock run for 5 yds to the GAST 47Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
88.8%
Christian Veilleux run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
50
0
88.5%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
50
+20
88.7%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 20 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
83.6%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 30 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:1386% → 84%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.2%
Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd to the TXST 26Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
85.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Titus Lyons for 4 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+24
85.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 24 yds to the GAST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
86.6%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Josiah Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the TXST 49 Jordan McCloud fumbled, recovered by GAST Alex Harkey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+8
85.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 8 yds to the GAST 43Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-1
85.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 44Similar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
84.4%
David Nunez punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:1817% → 33%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
82.7%
Freddie Brock run for 12 yds to the GAST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
81.9%
Freddie Brock run for no gain to the GAST 32Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+15
81.8%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Rykem Laney for 15 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
79.9%
Michel Dukes run for 12 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
78.8%
Christian Veilleux run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 44Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+23
78.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Rykem Laney for 23 yds to the TXST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
67.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 21 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1672% → 71%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
72.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
72.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-30
71.0%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Kenyatta Watson II return for 30 yds to the TXST 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0934% → 43%
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
66.2%
Freddie Brock run for no gain to the TXST 8Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
66.0%
Dorian Fleming run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 11Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
56.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 11 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:4953% → 59%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
53.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 11 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
54.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
54.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 8 yds to the GAST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
59.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+18
58.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 18 yds to the GAST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
59.0%
Jordan McCloud sacked by KD McDaniel for a loss of 8 yards to the GAST 39 Jordan McCloud fumbled, recovered by GAST Christian Lorenzo , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:1451% → 57%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
49.0%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Dorian FlemingSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
49.3%
Michel Dukes run for 3 yds to the GAST 42Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+24
48.2%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Rykem Laney for 24 yds to the TXST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+52
42.8%
Braeden McAlister 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4547% → 50%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.7%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the GAST 26Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
51.1%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Veilleux,Christian rush middle for 0 yards to the GSU26 (Webb,Terry; Landry,Jo'Laison) PENALTY TXST Offside (Landry,Jo'Laison) 5 yards from GSU26 to GSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
49.9%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the GAST 32Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
49.8%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Dorian FlemingSimilar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
50.1%
James Allen punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Beau Sparks at the TXST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 72 yds · 5:5551% → 41%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
50.6%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 6 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-7
50.2%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 7 yards to the TXST 26Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+12
47.6%
Jordan McCloud run for 12 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
49.2%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 1 yd to the TXST 39Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
47.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
47.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 47Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+7
45.2%
Deion Hankins run for 7 yds to the GAST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
45.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 12 yds to the GAST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
45.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Jaden WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+30
44.9%
Deion Hankins run for 30 yds to the GAST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
44.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the GAST 2Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
43.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Konner FoxSimilar
Q3 7:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
42.1%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the GAST 1Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.6%
Deion Hankins run for no gain to the GAST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3366% → 66%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
33.7%
Christian Veilleux run for no gain to the GAST 1Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
33.2%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Ted HurstSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
33.8%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Rykem LaneySimilar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 10
OWN 1
0
34.0%
James Allen punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GAST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:3940% → 38%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
39.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 2 yds to the GAST 25Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+10
38.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 10 yds to the GAST 27 Torrance Burgess Jr. fumbled, recovered by GAST Josiah RobinsonSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+10
38.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 10 yds to the GAST 37 Torrance Burgess Jr. fumbled, recovered by GAST Josiah RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:0372% → 76%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
28.0%
DJ Riles run for 17 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
25.2%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the TXST 44Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+1
24.7%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the TXST 43Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+1
24.2%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the TXST 42Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
24.3%
James Allen punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:3328% → 27%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
27.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 18Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
26.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
26.6%
Lars Rau punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cadarrius Thompson at the GAST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:4181% → 94%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
19.0%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Rykem Laney for 8 yds to the GAST 43Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+57
6.5%
Freddie Brock run for 57 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22INT
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:098% → 8%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
8.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 21 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
8.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Kole WilsonSimilar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
8.6%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass incomplete short right to Fox,Konner thrown to GSU40 PENALTY TXST UNR: Unnecessary Roughness offsetting GSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
8.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 15 yds to the GAST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
8.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the GAST 29Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
8.2%
Jordan McCloud pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23PUNT TD
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:2394% → 85%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+13
5.8%
Freddie Brock run for 13 yds to the GAST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
5.3%
Freddie Brock run for no gain to the GAST 20Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
5.0%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the GAST 22Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
4.6%
Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to DJ RilesSimilar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+80
14.6%
Beau Sparks 80 Yd Punt Return (Jordan McCloud Pass to Chris Dawn Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:0088% → 97%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
12.1%
Freddie Brock run for 2 yds to the GAST 41Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+31
10.9%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Ted Hurst for 31 yds to the TXST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
9.5%
Christian Veilleux run for 12 yds to the TXST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
2.6%
Freddie Brock run for 16 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:014% → 10%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
3.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 7 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
3.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Konner FoxSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
3.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
3.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
3.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 13 yds to the GAST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
3.6%
Jordan McCloud sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the TXST 49Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+18
3.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 18 yds to the GAST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
3.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 11 yds to the GAST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
3.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 5 yds to the GAST 17Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+17
10.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:0193% → 96%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.1%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the GAST 26Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
6.3%
Michel Dukes run for 5 yds to the GAST 31Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
5.8%
Michel Dukes run for 5 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, (10 Yards) to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
4.6%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
3.7%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-4
3.6%
Michel Dukes run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 11
50
+80
3.6%
James Allen punt for 44 yds , Beau Sparks returns for 80 yds to the GAST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27TD
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:012% → 15%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
2.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Jaden WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
2.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 7 yds to the GAST 7Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
2.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+4
2.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the GAST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
2.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
14.6%
Lincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Jordan McCloud Pass to Lincoln Pare for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28END OF GAME
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3795% → 98%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
5.4%
Kyle Lowe run for no gain to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
4.4%
Michel Dukes run for 3 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+15
3.6%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Dukes,Michel rush right for 2 yards loss to the TXST47 (Bass,Brice) PENALTY TXST Face Mask (Bass,Brice) 15 yards from TXST45 to TXST30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
3.1%
Texas State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the TXST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
2.9%
C. Veilleux takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 17
-1
2.5%
C. Veilleux takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:21
Freddie Brock run for 57 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q2 1:54
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 21 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
-12
TD · Q4 2:52
Lincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Jordan McCloud Pass to Lincoln Pare for Two-Point Conversion)
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com