Georgia State

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0631st
  Defense+0.246th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.0%35th
  Defense45.5%10th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2453rd
  Defense+1.2740th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0439th
  Defense+0.1711th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1236th
  Defense+0.384th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.5%29th
  Defense48.7%36th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.7%63rd
  Defense37.4%1st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8944th
  Defense3.1716th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.1%30th
  Defense14.2%7th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.0%39th
  Defense12.7%10th

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   MISS
2. L
   MEM
3. W
   MUR
4. L
   VAN
5. L
   JMU
6. L
   APP
7. L
   GASO
8. L
   USA
9. L
   CCU
10. L
    MRSH
11. L
    TROY
12. L
    ODU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia State.

Players, 2025

1. Cameran BrownQB149 plays · +0.271 pts/play · 106th of 231 QBs
   0.76WAR0.46 to 1.06
2. TJ FinleyQB147 plays · +0.131 pts/play · 147th of 231 QBs
   0.36WAR0.11 to 0.65
3. Ted HurstWR74 plays · +0.228 pts/play · 20th of 451 WRs
   0.32WAR0.14 to 0.50
4. Jordon SimmonsRB104 plays · +0.117 pts/play · 95th of 365 RBs
   0.23WAR0.17 to 0.29
5. Christian VeilleuxQB47 plays · +0.196 pts/play · 173rd of 231 QBs
   0.17WAR0.07 to 0.27
6. Grant HollierTE21 plays · +0.214 pts/play · 43rd of 213 TEs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.12
7. Javon RobinsonWR59 plays · +0.074 pts/play · 225th of 451 WRs
   0.08WAR−0.03 to 0.20
8. Liam RickmanPK8 plays · +0.243 pts/play · 101st of 112 kickers
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  61261277th of 134Roster talent: 612, 77th of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  13613699th of 134Recruiting: 136, 99th of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  45%45%48th of 132Returning production: 45%, 48th of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −24.5−24.5131st of 134SP+ rating: −24.5, 131st of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.02 of the 0.05 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs MRSHQ4 0:16 4th & 3 at GAST 40, tiedWent for it; the numbers favored punting1.4 pts
2. at TROYQ4 0:16 4th & 15 at TROY 22, down 12Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal1.0 pts
3. at CCUQ4 4:21 4th & 4 at CCU 24, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)0.7 pts
4. vs JMUQ4 1:49 4th & 18 at GAST 31, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)0.6 pts
5. vs APPQ4 10:47 4th & 9 at GAST 31, down 24Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)0.3 pts
6. vs APPQ4 10:47 4th & 9 at GAST 31, down 24Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)0.3 pts
7. vs MRSHQ2 2:51 4th & 5 at GAST 40, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.2 pts
8. vs APPQ2 13:24 4th & 4 at GAST 37, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

126th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   MISS
2. L

   MEM
3. W

   MUR
4. L

   VAN
5. L

   JMU
6. L

   APP
7. L

   GASO
8. L

   USA
9. L

   CCU
10. L

    MRSH
11. L

    TROY
12. L

    ODU

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Georgia State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−2.54
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.07
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.89

Game by game

• MISSL 7-63 at MISS2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −4
• MEML 16-38 vs MEM16% → 7%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −24, Clock −1
• MURW 37-21 vs MUR98% → 99%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +6
• VANL 21-70 at VAN4% → 0%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −6
• JMUL 7-14 vs JMU11% → 4%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −22, Clock −1
• APPL 20-41 vs APP48% → 0%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −47: Scoreboard −50, Clock −3
• GASOL 24-41 at GASO32% → 1%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts +4
• USAL 31-38 vs USA39% → 5%Before kickoff −11 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −45, Clock −3
• CCUL 27-40 at CCU34% → 1%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −2
• MRSHL 18-30 vs MRSH34% → 62%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +28: Clock −1, Timeouts −1
• TROYL 19-31 at TROY28% → 1%Before kickoff −22 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −29, Timeouts −1
• ODUL 10-27 at ODU5% → 1%Before kickoff −45 · On the field −4: Scoreboard −9

Points of win probability, from Georgia State's side.

Closest call

GAST 42-40 CCU (2021) - Georgia State dropped to a 1.4% win probability before pulling it out.