ARDLINETry the model
JMU

James Madison 14 at Georgia State 7

GAST
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Center Parc Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDKEY PLAYTDKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAYTD
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JMU · Drive 1PUNT · 7 plays · 31 yds
Q1 14:49
Wayne Knight run for 17 yds to the JMU 27 for a 1ST down
14.1%
0.0
Q1 14:12
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnett III,Alonza pass incomplete short right to Sanchez,Jaylan thrown to JMU31 PENALTY GSU Roughing The Passer (Mathews,Ian) 15 yards from JMU27 to JMU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
13.8%
-0.3
Q1 14:04
Wayne Knight run for 4 yds to the JMU 46
13.1%
-0.7
Q1 13:39
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Landon Ellis
12.7%
-0.4
Q1 13:31
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Nick DeGennaro
12.7%
0.0
Q1 13:31
PENALTY JMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from JMU46 to JMU41. NO PLAY.
12.9%
+0.2
Q1 13:24
Patrick Rea punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Javon Robinson at the GAST 17
13.2%
+0.4
GAST · Drive 2MISSED FG · 9 plays · 53 yds
Q1 13:17
Rashad Amos run for no gain to the GAST 17
15.6%
+2.3
Q1 12:38
TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 9 yds to the GAST 26
15.6%
0.0
Q1 12:13
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the GAST 27 for a 1ST down
15.6%
0.0
Q1 11:40
TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 52 yds to the JMU 21 for a 1ST down
15.6%
0.0
Q1 10:33
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the JMU 22 Rashad Amos fumbled, recovered by GAST Donovan Funsch
16.9%
+1.4
Q1 10:33
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Robinson,Javon rush right for 13 yards gain to the JMU09 (McGill,TJ) PENALTY GSU Illegal Shift declined GSU Holding (Overton-Howard,Camden) 10 yards from JMU22 to JMU32. NO PLAY.
16.9%
0.0
Q1 9:26
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 4 yards to the JMU 36
17.0%
+0.1
Q1 9:01
TJ Finley pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 6 yds to the JMU 30
16.8%
-0.1
Q1 9:01
Braeden McAlister 48 yd FG MISSED
16.6%
-0.2
JMU · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q1 8:46
Jordan Fuller run for 4 yds to the JMU 34
13.6%
-3.0
Q1 8:18
Jordan Fuller run for no gain to the JMU 34
14.0%
+0.4
Q1 8:18
Timeout James Madison, clock 08:18
13.6%
-0.4
Q1 7:35
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Michael Scott
13.6%
0.0
Q1 7:27
Patrick Rea punt for 37 yds , Javon Robinson returns for no gain to the GAST 29
13.6%
0.0
GAST · Drive 4TD · 8 plays · 71 yds
Q1 7:22
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ pass incomplete short left to Hurst,Ted thrown to GSU45 PENALTY JMU Pass Interference (Barksdale,DJ) 15 yards from GSU29 to GSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
15.0%
+1.4
Q1 7:07
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the GAST 46
15.5%
+0.5
Q1 6:30
TJ Finley pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 15 yds to the JMU 39 for a 1ST down
15.6%
+0.1
Q1 6:00
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the JMU 37
16.4%
+0.8
Q1 5:27
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Finley,TJ pass incomplete deep middle to Hurst,Ted thrown to JMU02 PENALTY JMU Pass Interference (Thomas,Jacob) 15 yards from JMU37 to JMU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
16.9%
+0.5
Q1 5:16
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the JMU 19
16.9%
0.0
Q1 4:44
TJ Finley run for no gain to the JMU 19
16.9%
0.0
Q1 4:03
TJ Finley pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 19 yds for a TD (Braeden McAlister KICK)
24.6%
+7.7
JMU · Drive 5DOWNS · 22 plays · 59 yds
Q1 4:03
Braeden McAlister kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
23.9%
-0.7
Q1 3:56
Wayne Knight run for 6 yds to the JMU 31
22.9%
-1.0
Q1 3:21
Wayne Knight run for no gain to the JMU 31
23.0%
+0.1
Q1 2:44
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Wayne Knight
23.0%
0.0
Q1 2:21
Lacota Dippre run for 8 yds to the JMU 39 for a 1ST down
23.0%
0.0
Q1 1:57
PENALTY JMU Illegal Snap (Greenberg,Zach) 5 yards from JMU39 to JMU34. NO PLAY.
22.5%
-0.4
Q1 1:37
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Fuller,Jordan rush right for 13 yards gain to the JMU47 (Robinson,Josiah) PENALTY JMU Holding (Greenberg,Zach) 10 yards from JMU34 to JMU24. NO PLAY.
23.0%
+0.4
Q1 1:09
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 8 yds to the JMU 32
23.2%
+0.2
Q1 0:00
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for no gain to the JMU 32
24.0%
+0.8
Q2 14:52
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Wayne Knight
24.1%
+0.1
Q2 14:31
Lacota Dippre run for 23 yds to the GAST 45 for a 1ST down
24.1%
0.0
Q2 14:03
Jordan Fuller run for 3 yds to the GAST 42
22.7%
-1.5
Q2 13:23
Jordan Fuller run for 2 yds to the GAST 40
22.4%
-0.3
Q2 12:42
Alonza Barnett III run for 5 yds to the GAST 35 for a 1ST down
22.2%
-0.2
Q2 12:07
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Nick DeGennaro
22.2%
0.0
Q2 11:56
Wayne Knight run for 4 yds to the GAST 31
22.2%
0.0
Q2 11:02
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Za'Ron Collins for 9 yds to the GAST 22 for a 1ST down
22.8%
+0.6
Q2 10:23
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 1 yd to the GAST 21
23.0%
+0.3
Q2 9:56
Jordan Fuller run for 4 yds to the GAST 17
23.0%
0.0
Q2 9:13
Alonza Barnett III run for 2 yds to the GAST 15
23.1%
0.0
Q2 8:37
Timeout James Madison, clock 08:37
22.1%
-1.0
Q2 8:31
Matthew Sluka run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 16
22.1%
0.0
GAST · Drive 6PUNT · 15 plays · 28 yds
Q2 8:25
Rashad Amos run for 6 yds to the GAST 22
29.9%
+7.8
Q2 7:39
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Cameran pass complete short right to Blackburn,Leo caught at GSU20, for 5 yards to the GSU27 (Thomas,Jacob), out of bounds PENALTY GSU Holding (Overton-Howard,Camden) 10 yards from GSU22 to GSU12. NO PLAY.
31.2%
+1.3
Q2 7:22
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the GAST 13
31.2%
0.0
Q2 6:38
Cameran Brown run for 13 yds to the GAST 26 for a 1ST down
31.2%
0.0
Q2 5:58
James Madison Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the GAST 41 for a 1ST down
32.5%
+1.3
Q2 5:58
Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for no gain to the GAST 26
32.5%
0.0
Q2 4:53
Cameran Brown pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 7 yds to the GAST 48
33.3%
+0.8
Q2 4:40
Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the JMU 48 for a 1ST down
32.3%
-1.0
Q2 4:12
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Cameran pass complete short middle to Overton-Howard,Camden caught at JMU46, for 2 yards to the JMU46 (Thomas,Jacob) PENALTY GSU Holding (Boyd,Kynjrick) 10 yards from JMU48 to GSU42. NO PLAY.
32.3%
0.0
Q2 3:49
Rashad Amos run for no gain to the GAST 42
33.3%
+1.0
Q2 3:19
Cameran Brown pass complete to Rashad Amos for 7 yds to the GAST 49
33.3%
0.0
Q2 3:19
Timeout Georgia State, clock 03:19
31.3%
-2.0
Q2 2:54
PENALTY GSU False Start (Boyd,Kynjrick) 5 yards from GSU49 to GSU44. NO PLAY.
31.3%
0.0
Q2 2:48
Cameran Brown pass incomplete to Ted Hurst
30.9%
-0.4
Q2 2:39
Reed Chandley punt for 49 yds , Wayne Knight returns for 13 yds to the JMU 20
30.4%
-0.6
JMU · Drive 7PUNT · 10 plays · 31 yds
Q2 2:23
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Lacota Dippre for 11 yds to the JMU 31 for a 1ST down
29.5%
-0.8
Q2 2:04
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Lacota Dippre for 6 yds to the JMU 37
30.2%
+0.7
Q2 1:54
Wayne Knight run for 14 yds to the GAST 49 for a 1ST down James Madison Penalty, Illegal Block (Jaylan Sanchez) to the JMU 41 for a 1ST down
30.2%
0.0
Q2 1:36
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 9 yds to the 50 yard line
29.5%
-0.8
Q2 1:21
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 6 yds to the GAST 44 for a 1ST down
29.0%
-0.5
Q2 1:07
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Wayne Knight
28.9%
-0.1
Q2 1:02
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Logan Kyle
28.9%
0.0
Q2 0:58
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Lacota Dippre
28.9%
0.0
Q2 0:58
PENALTY JMU False Start (Thomas,Jacob) 5 yards from GSU44 to GSU49. NO PLAY.
29.2%
+0.3
Q2 0:48
Patrick Rea punt for 42 yds
29.6%
+0.4
GAST · Drive 8END OF HALF · 4 plays · 22 yds
Q2 0:31
Javon Robinson run for 2 yds to the GAST 9
32.6%
+3.0
Q2 0:09
TJ Finley pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 11 yds to the GAST 20 for a 1ST down
32.8%
+0.3
Q2 0:09
Timeout Georgia State, clock 00:09
33.4%
+0.6
Q2 0:00
Rashad Amos run for 9 yds to the GAST 29
35.4%
+2.0
GAST · Drive 9PUNT · 14 plays · 17 yds
Q3 15:00
Cristiano Rosa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
31.1%
-4.3
Q3 14:54
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Javon Robinson
37.1%
+6.0
Q3 14:31
TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 8 yds to the GAST 33
37.1%
0.0
Q3 14:07
Georgia State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GAST 29
37.1%
0.0
Q3 13:39
TJ Finley pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 13 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST down
37.1%
0.0
Q3 13:14
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ted Hurst
38.7%
+1.7
Q3 13:01
TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 2 yds to the GAST 44
38.7%
0.0
Q3 12:50
(12:50) No Huddle Finley,TJ pass incomplete deep right to Washington,Kyle thrown to JMU15 PENALTY JMU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from GSU44 to GSU49. NO PLAY.
38.5%
-0.2
Q3 12:30
TJ Finley pass complete to Dennis Murray Jr. for 4 yds to the JMU 47 for a 1ST down
38.9%
+0.4
Q3 12:30
Timeout Georgia State, clock 12:30
39.1%
+0.2
Q3 11:51
TJ Finley sacked by Xavier Holmes for a loss of 12 yards to the GAST 41
39.1%
0.0
Q3 11:13
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Rashad Amos
38.7%
-0.4
Q3 10:52
TJ Finley pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 1 yd to the GAST 42
38.5%
-0.2
Q3 10:17
Reed Chandley punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the JMU 15 , Wayne Knight returns for 12 yds to the JMU 15
40.0%
+1.5
JMU · Drive 10TD · 9 plays · 85 yds
Q3 10:07
Jordan Fuller run for 21 yds to the JMU 36 for a 1ST down
34.6%
-5.4
Q3 9:30
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Lacota Dippre for 2 yds to the JMU 38
35.3%
+0.7
Q3 9:30
Timeout Georgia State, clock 09:30
36.3%
+1.0
Q3 9:12
Jordan Fuller run for 10 yds to the JMU 48 for a 1ST down
36.3%
0.0
Q3 8:28
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 13 yds to the GAST 39 for a 1ST down
34.4%
-1.9
Q3 7:54
Jordan Fuller run for 1 yd to the GAST 38
33.5%
-0.9
Q3 7:18
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Jaylan Sanchez
33.5%
0.0
Q3 7:12
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnett III,Alonza pass incomplete short middle to Collins,Za'Ron thrown to GSU30 broken up by Huff,Jordan PENALTY GSU Personal Foul (Dean,Marlin) 15 yards from GSU38 to GSU23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
33.5%
0.0
Q3 6:50
Alonza Barnett III run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
18.0%
-15.6
GAST · Drive 11PUNT · 6 plays · -4 yds
Q3 6:50
Cristiano Rosa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
20.7%
+2.8
Q3 6:44
(06:44) No Huddle Murray Jr.,Dennis rush right for 5 yards gain to the GSU30 (Thomas,Jacob; Hendrick,Trent) PENALTY GSU Holding (Burton,Jeff) 10 yards from GSU25 to GSU15. NO PLAY.
27.0%
+6.3
Q3 6:20
TJ Finley pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 14 yds to the GAST 29
27.0%
0.0
Q3 5:52
Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the GAST 30
27.0%
0.0
Q3 5:03
TJ Finley sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the GAST 21
27.0%
0.0
Q3 4:23
Reed Chandley punt for 46 yds
29.4%
+2.3
JMU · Drive 12PUNT · 13 plays · 27 yds
Q3 4:16
Alonza Barnett III pass incomplete to Za'Ron Collins
22.2%
-7.1
Q3 4:00
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 9 yds to the JMU 42
22.6%
+0.4
Q3 3:30
Jordan Fuller run for 7 yds to the JMU 49 for a 1ST down
21.8%
-0.8
Q3 2:56
Jordan Fuller run for 6 yds to the GAST 45
20.7%
-1.0
Q3 2:09
Wayne Knight run for 3 yds to the GAST 42
20.8%
+0.1
Q3 1:25
Jordan Fuller run for 3 yds to the GAST 39 for a 1ST down
21.3%
+0.5
Q3 0:56
Jordan Fuller run for 7 yds to the GAST 32
21.0%
-0.3
Q3 0:00
Jordan Fuller run for 3 yds to the GAST 29 for a 1ST down
21.0%
0.0
Q4 14:53
Wayne Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 30
21.0%
0.0
Q4 14:06
Wayne Knight run for 2 yds to the GAST 28
21.2%
+0.2
Q4 13:20
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Bishop Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the GAST 35
21.2%
0.0
Q4 12:39
PENALTY JMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from GSU35 to GSU40. NO PLAY.
21.8%
+0.5
Q4 12:30
Patrick Rea punt for 39 yds
22.9%
+1.1
GAST · Drive 13PUNT · 6 plays · 4 yds
Q4 12:30
PENALTY GSU False Start (Boyd,Kynjrick). NO PLAY.
34.6%
+11.7
Q4 12:20
Rashad Amos run for 8 yds to the GAST 9
34.6%
0.0
Q4 11:49
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Javon Robinson
34.6%
0.0
Q4 11:48
PENALTY GSU False Start 4 yards from GSU09 to GSU05. NO PLAY.
34.6%
0.0
Q4 11:44
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Leo Blackburn
34.6%
0.0
Q4 11:33
Reed Chandley punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GAST 28 , Wayne Knight returns for 22 yds to the GAST 28
34.3%
-0.3
JMU · Drive 14TD · 4 plays · 28 yds
Q4 11:26
Jordan Fuller run for 4 yds to the GAST 24
22.3%
-12.0
Q4 10:49
Jordan Fuller run for 15 yds to the GAST 9 for a 1ST down
22.3%
0.0
Q4 10:20
Jordan Fuller run for no gain to the GAST 9
22.3%
0.0
Q4 9:50
Wayne Knight run for 9 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
7.0%
-15.3
GAST · Drive 15PUNT · 8 plays · 14 yds
Q4 9:42
Cristiano Rosa kickoff for 65 yds , TJ Peyton return for 18 yds to the GAST 18
8.0%
+0.9
Q4 9:34
Branson Robinson run for no gain to the GAST 18
10.5%
+2.6
Q4 8:50
TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 9 yds to the GAST 27
10.3%
-0.3
Q4 8:06
Branson Robinson run for 5 yds to the GAST 32 for a 1ST down
10.3%
+0.1
Q4 7:28
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Javon Robinson
9.1%
-1.2
Q4 7:09
TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for no gain to the GAST 32
9.1%
0.0
Q4 6:43
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ted Hurst
9.6%
+0.5
Q4 6:32
Reed Chandley punt for 50 yds , Wayne Knight returns for 3 yds to the JMU 21
9.6%
0.0
JMU · Drive 16PUNT · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q4 6:26
Ayo Adeyi run for no gain to the JMU 21
6.9%
-2.7
Q4 5:40
Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the JMU 29
6.7%
-0.3
Q4 4:54
Jordan Fuller run for no gain to the JMU 29
6.2%
-0.5
Q4 4:04
Patrick Rea punt for 52 yds
6.1%
-0.1
GAST · Drive 17DOWNS · 12 plays · 15 yds
Q4 3:59
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Camden Overton-Howard
9.3%
+3.2
Q4 3:59
PENALTY GSU False Start (Duffus,Deandre) 5 yards from GSU19 to GSU14. NO PLAY.
9.3%
0.0
Q4 3:47
TJ Finley pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 10 yds to the GAST 24
9.3%
0.0
Q4 3:15
TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 15 yds to the GAST 39 for a 1ST down
9.3%
0.0
Q4 2:59
PENALTY GSU False Start (McCrimmon,Jeremiah) 5 yards from GSU39 to GSU34. NO PLAY.
9.5%
+0.2
Q4 2:39
TJ Finley pass incomplete to Javon Robinson
8.0%
-1.6
Q4 2:20
TJ Finley pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 3 yds to the GAST 31
7.3%
-0.7
Q4 2:00
Timeout Georgia State, clock 02:00
8.3%
+1.0
Q4 2:00
PENALTY GSU False Start (Bailey Jr.,Derrell) 5 yards from GSU31 to GSU26. NO PLAY.
8.3%
0.0
Q4 1:55
TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 10 yds to the GAST 36
8.1%
-0.2
Q4 1:54
PENALTY GSU False Start 5 yards from GSU36 to GSU31. NO PLAY.
8.1%
0.0
Q4 1:49
TJ Finley pass complete to Branson Robinson for 3 yds to the GAST 34
8.1%
0.0
JMU · Drive 18END OF GAME · 9 plays · 7 yds
Q4 1:39
Wayne Knight run for 7 yds to the GAST 27
4.5%
-3.6
Q4 1:39
Timeout Georgia State, clock 01:39
4.1%
-0.4
Q4 1:34
Wayne Knight run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 29
4.1%
0.0
Q4 1:34
Timeout James Madison, clock 01:34
4.0%
-0.1
Q4 1:25
Jordan Fuller run for 4 yds to the GAST 25
4.0%
0.0
Q4 1:25
PENALTY GSU Offside (Flounoy,Jartavius) 5 yards from GSU25 to GSU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
4.0%
0.0
Q4 1:16
(01:25) Kneel down by James Madison at GSU22 for loss of 2 yards.
4.0%
0.0
Q4 0:33
(00:39) Kneel down by James Madison at GSU25 for loss of 3 yards.
4.4%
+0.4
Q4 0:00
(00:08) Kneel down by James Madison at GSU27 for loss of 2 yards.
4.4%
0.0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:50
Alonza Barnett III run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q4 9:50
Wayne Knight run for 9 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
-15.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:26
Jordan Fuller run for 4 yds to the GAST 24
-12
YardLine · model v2Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com