YardLine - College football win probability

MUR

Murray State 21 at Georgia State 37

GAST

2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Center Parc Stadium

Speed4x

Win probability · GAST

modelGAST aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey play

Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump

GAST · Drive 1PUNT · 6 plays · 8 yds

Q1 14:55

Jack Tannehill kickoff for 62 yds , TJ Peyton return for 20 yds to the GAST 23

98.9%

0.0

Q1 14:41

TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 3 yds to the GAST 26

99.1%

+0.2

Q1 14:09

TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 5 yds to the GAST 31

99.1%

0.0

Q1 13:50

PENALTY GSU False Start (Blackburn,Leo) 5 yards from GSU31 to GSU26. NO PLAY.

99.1%

0.0

Q1 13:10

TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 5 yds to the GAST 31

99.1%

0.0

Q1 12:35

Reed Chandley punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MUR 43

99.1%

0.0

MUR · Drive 2DOWNS · 6 plays · 22 yds

Q1 12:13

Jim Ogle pass complete to Brooks Kleinpeter for 4 yds to the MUR 47

98.9%

-0.2

Q1 11:49

Jawaun Northington run for 11 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST down

98.8%

0.0

Q1 11:22

Murray State Penalty, unnecessary roughness (-15 Yards) to the MUR 48

98.8%

0.0

Q1 10:56

Jim Ogle pass complete to Cam Bulluck for 5 yds to the GAST 47

98.8%

0.0

Q1 10:27

Jim Ogle pass complete to Darius Cannon for 12 yds to the GAST 35

98.8%

0.0

Q1 10:10

Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Ty Brown

98.8%

0.0

GAST · Drive 3TD · 6 plays · 65 yds

Q1 9:51

TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 11 yds to the GAST 46 for a 1ST down

99.1%

+0.2

Q1 9:22

Branson Robinson run for 47 yds to the MUR 7 for a 1ST down

99.1%

0.0

Q1 8:44

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ted Hurst

99.0%

0.0

Q1 8:30

Rashad Amos run for 6 yds to the MUR 1

99.0%

0.0

Q1 7:55

Rashad Amos run for no gain to the MUR 1

99.0%

0.0

Q1 7:26

TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 1 yd for a TD (Braeden McAlister KICK)

99.4%

+0.4

MUR · Drive 4PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds

Q1 7:26

Braeden McAlister kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

99.5%

+0.1

Q1 7:23

Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Jalen Richmond

99.4%

0.0

Q1 7:08

Jim Ogle pass complete to Darius Cannon for 3 yds to the MUR 28

99.4%

0.0

Q1 6:41

Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Jalen Richmond

99.4%

0.0

Q1 6:31

Tom O'Hara punt for 30 yds

99.3%

-0.1

GAST · Drive 5TD · 10 plays · 58 yds

Q1 6:31

PENALTY GSU False Start (Overton-Howard,Camden) 5 yards from GSU42 to GSU37. NO PLAY.

99.4%

0.0

Q1 6:19

Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the GAST 42

99.4%

0.0

Q1 5:47

Rashad Amos run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

99.4%

0.0

Q1 5:09

Cameran Brown run for 3 yds to the MUR 47 for a 1ST down

99.4%

0.0

Q1 4:44

Branson Robinson run for 7 yds to the MUR 40

99.4%

0.0

Q1 4:17

Branson Robinson run for 1 yd to the MUR 39

99.4%

0.0

Q1 3:32

Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for 31 yds to the MUR 8 for a 1ST down

99.4%

0.0

Q1 3:18

Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the MUR 5

99.4%

0.0

Q1 2:53

Cameran Brown pass incomplete to Ted Hurst

99.4%

0.0

Q1 2:47

Cameran Brown pass complete to Leo Blackburn for 5 yds for a TD (Braeden McAlister KICK)

99.6%

+0.3

MUR · Drive 6TD · 11 plays · 75 yds

Q1 2:47

Braeden McAlister kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

99.6%

0.0

Q1 2:33

Jim Ogle pass complete to Lucas Desjardins for 20 yds to the MUR 45 for a 1ST down

99.5%

-0.1

Q1 2:09

Jordan Washington run for no gain to the MUR 45

99.5%

0.0

Q1 1:35

Jordan Washington run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

99.5%

0.0

Q1 1:00

Jim Ogle pass complete to Darius Cannon for 14 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST down

99.5%

0.0

Q1 0:49

Jim Ogle pass complete to Lucas Desjardins for 8 yds to the GAST 28

99.5%

0.0

Q1 0:25

Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Trace Corum

99.4%

0.0

Q1 0:00

Jordan Washington run for 3 yds to the GAST 25 for a 1ST down

99.4%

0.0

Q2 14:52

Jawaun Northington run for 9 yds to the GAST 16

99.4%

-0.1

Q2 14:35

Jawaun Northington run for 11 yds to the GAST 5 for a 1ST down

99.4%

0.0

Q2 13:51

Jawaun Northington run for 5 yds for a TD Georgia State Penalty, Personal Foul (10 Yards) to the GAST 0 (Jack Tannehill KICK)

99.1%

-0.3

GAST · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds

Q2 13:18

Jack Tannehill kickoff for 53 yds , TJ Peyton return for 5 yds to the GAST 5

99.2%

+0.2

Q2 12:46

Djay Braswell run for 1 yd to the GAST 6

99.4%

+0.2

Q2 12:28

TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 6 yds to the GAST 12

99.3%

-0.1

Q2 12:20

Georgia State Penalty, Personal Foul (Yards) declined

99.3%

0.0

Q2 12:01

Reed Chandley punt for 41 yds , Darius Cannon returns for 22 yds to the GAST 29

99.3%

0.0

MUR · Drive 8DOWNS · 5 plays · 4 yds

Q2 11:54

(11:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Northington,Jawaun rush left for 4 yards gain to the GSU25 (Rhodes-Nelson,Jabriel) PENALTY Murray Holding (Hamilton,Chase) 10 yards from GSU29 to GSU39. NO PLAY.

99.0%

-0.3

Q2 11:31

Jim Ogle pass complete to Darius Cannon for 8 yds to the GAST 31

99.0%

0.0

Q2 10:58

Jawaun Northington run for 4 yds to the GAST 27

99.0%

0.0

Q2 10:19

Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the GAST 25

99.0%

-0.1

Q2 9:52

Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Jalen Richmond

98.9%

-0.1

GAST · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds

Q2 9:44

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ted Hurst

99.3%

+0.4

Q2 9:38

(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Robinson,Branson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GSU29 (Rowsey,Dylan) PENALTY GSU Block Below Waist (Overton-Howard,Camden) 12 yards from GSU25 to GSU13. NO PLAY.

99.3%

0.0

Q2 9:18

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Leo Blackburn

99.3%

0.0

Q2 9:00

TJ Finley pass complete to Djay Braswell for 15 yds to the GAST 28

99.3%

0.0

Q2 8:30

Reed Chandley punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Darius Cannon at the MUR 16

99.3%

0.0

MUR · Drive 10PUNT · 5 plays · 16 yds

Q2 8:11

Jim Ogle pass complete to Brooks Kleinpeter for 12 yds to the MUR 28 for a 1ST down

99.1%

-0.2

Q2 7:47

Jordan Washington run for 2 yds to the MUR 30

99.1%

0.0

Q2 7:17

Jordan Washington run for 2 yds to the MUR 32

99.1%

0.0

Q2 6:42

Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Darius Cannon

99.0%

-0.1

Q2 6:34

Tom O'Hara punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Javon Robinson at the GAST 16

99.0%

0.0

GAST · Drive 11INT · 3 plays · 25 yds

Q2 6:23

Branson Robinson run for 4 yds to the GAST 20

99.2%

+0.2

Q2 5:40

TJ Finley pass complete to Leo Blackburn for 21 yds to the GAST 41 for a 1ST down

99.2%

0.0

Q2 5:13

TJ Finley pass intercepted Marion Ponds return for no gain to the MUR 6

99.2%

0.0

MUR · Drive 12SF · 3 plays · -6 yds

Q2 5:04

Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MUR 7

99.0%

-0.2

Q2 4:19

Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MUR 8

99.0%

0.0

Q2 3:50

Jaylen Jones Safety

99.1%

+0.2

GAST · Drive 13INT · 6 plays · 54 yds

Q2 3:42

Jack Tannehill kickoff for 59 yds , TJ Peyton return for 21 yds to the GAST 42

99.1%

0.0

Q2 3:33

Branson Robinson run for 2 yds to the GAST 44

99.3%

+0.1

Q2 2:47

TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 52 yds to the MUR 4 for a 1ST down

99.3%

0.0

Q2 2:24

Branson Robinson run for no gain to the MUR 4

99.2%

-0.1

Q2 2:00

Timeout Georgia State, clock 02:00

99.3%

+0.1

Q2 1:54

TJ Finley pass intercepted Marion Ponds return for no gain to the MUR 4

99.3%

0.0

MUR · Drive 14FUMBLE · 4 plays · 0 yds

Q2 1:51

Timeout Georgia State, clock 01:51

99.2%

-0.1

Q2 1:46

Jordan Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the MUR 3

99.2%

0.0

Q2 1:45

Jim Ogle pass complete to Lucas Desjardins for 20 yds to the MUR 23 for a 1ST down

99.2%

0.0

Q2 1:35

Jordan Washington run for a loss of 19 yards to the MUR 4 Jordan Washington fumbled, recovered by GAST Josiah Robinson

99.2%

0.0

GAST · Drive 15TD · 2 plays · 4 yds

Q2 1:24

Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the MUR 1

99.3%

+0.2

Q2 0:48

Rashad Amos run for 1 yd for a TD (Braeden McAlister KICK)

99.5%

+0.2

MUR · Drive 16MISSED FG · 12 plays · 42 yds

Q2 0:48

Braeden McAlister kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

99.5%

0.0

Q2 0:44

Jim Ogle pass complete to Lucas Desjardins for 7 yds to the MUR 32

99.3%

-0.2

Q2 0:30

Jim Ogle pass complete to Lucas Desjardins for 5 yds to the MUR 37 for a 1ST down

99.3%

0.0

Q2 0:26

Jim Ogle pass complete to Sawyer Deerman for 3 yds to the MUR 40

99.3%

-0.1

Q2 0:26

Timeout Georgia State, clock 00:26

99.3%

0.0

Q2 0:19

(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun Ogle,Jim pass complete short right to Northington,Jawaun caught at Murray48, for 8 yards to the Murray48, out of bounds at Murray48 PENALTY GSU Holding (Causey III,Bernard) 10 yards from Murray40 to Murray50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

99.3%

0.0

Q2 0:14

Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Cam Bulluck

99.3%

0.0

Q2 0:08

Jim Ogle run for 6 yds to the GAST 44

99.3%

0.0

Q2 0:08

Timeout Georgia State, clock 00:08

99.3%

0.0

Q2 0:03

Jim Ogle pass complete to Lucas Desjardins for 11 yds to the GAST 33 for a 1ST down

99.3%

0.0

Q2 0:03

Timeout Georgia State, clock 00:03

99.2%

0.0

Q2 0:00

Jack Tannehill 51 yd FG MISSED

99.2%

0.0

MUR · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · -2 yds

Q3 15:00

Braeden McAlister kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

99.5%

+0.3

Q3 14:52

Jawaun Northington run for 3 yds to the MUR 28

99.3%

-0.2

Q3 14:10

Jalen Richmond run for a loss of 6 yards to the MUR 22

99.3%

0.0

Q3 13:47

Jim Ogle run for 1 yd to the MUR 23 Murray State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Keyaan Abdul-Rahim) declined

99.3%

0.0

Q3 13:32

Tom O'Hara punt for 52 yds

99.3%

0.0

MUR · Drive 18MISSED FG · 6 plays · 6 yds

Q3 13:32

Timeout Georgia State, clock 13:32

99.3%

-0.1

Q3 13:17

Jim Ogle sacked by D-Icey Hopkins for a loss of 7 yards to the GAST 28

99.2%

0.0

Q3 12:47

Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Jalen Richmond

99.3%

0.0

Q3 12:47

Timeout Georgia State, clock 12:47

99.2%

0.0

Q3 12:33

Tyrell Campbell run for 13 yds to the GAST 15

99.2%

0.0

Q3 12:12

Jack Tannehill 33 yd FG MISSED

99.2%

0.0

GAST · Drive 19PUNT · 8 plays · 26 yds

Q3 11:48

TJ Finley pass complete to Dennis Murray Jr. for 16 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST down

99.6%

+0.4

Q3 11:24

TJ Finley pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 15 yds to the MUR 49 for a 1ST down

99.5%

-0.1

Q3 11:22

Georgia State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GAST 48

99.5%

0.0

Q3 11:02

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Derrick Avery Jr.

99.5%

0.0

Q3 10:46

Djay Braswell run for 3 yds to the MUR 49

99.5%

0.0

Q3 10:13

TJ Finley pass incomplete to Ted Hurst

99.5%

0.0

Q3 10:04

(10:04) Chandley,Reed punt 43 yards to the Murray06 PENALTY GSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from Murray49 to GSU46. NO PLAY.

99.5%

0.0

Q3 9:58

Reed Chandley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Darius Cannon at the MUR 12

99.5%

0.0

MUR · Drive 20PUNT · 6 plays · 17 yds

Q3 9:52

Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Lucas Desjardins

99.2%

-0.3

Q3 9:34

Jim Ogle pass complete to Darius Cannon for 10 yds to the MUR 22 for a 1ST down

99.2%

0.0

Q3 9:07

Tyrell Campbell run for 3 yds to the MUR 25

99.2%

0.0

Q3 8:36

Tyrell Campbell run for 4 yds to the MUR 29

99.2%

0.0

Q3 8:05

Jim Ogle pass incomplete to Darius Cannon

99.2%

0.0

Q3 7:58

Tom O'Hara punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Javon Robinson at the GAST 24

99.2%

0.0

GAST · Drive 21TD · 11 plays · 76 yds

Q3 7:37

Cameran Brown pass complete to Leo Blackburn for 10 yds to the GAST 34 for a 1ST down

99.5%

+0.4

Q3 7:16

Cameran Brown run for 1 yd to the GAST 35

99.5%

0.0

Q3 7:00

Branson Robinson run for 3 yds to the GAST 38

99.5%

0.0

Q3 6:22

Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for 8 yds to the GAST 46 for a 1ST down

99.4%

-0.1

Q3 6:11

Cameran Brown run for 10 yds to the MUR 44 for a 1ST down

99.4%

0.0

Q3 5:32

(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Cameran rush right for 1 yard loss to the Murray45 (Abdul-Rahim,Keyaan), out of bounds PENALTY GSU Holding (McCrimmon,Jeremiah) 10 yards from Murray44 to GSU46. NO PLAY.

99.4%

0.0

Q3 5:21

PENALTY GSU Illegal Snap (Williams,Tyhler) 5 yards from GSU46 to GSU41. NO PLAY.

99.4%

0.0

Q3 4:39

Cameran Brown pass complete to Branson Robinson for 5 yds to the GAST 46

99.4%

0.0

Q3 4:07

Dennis Murray Jr. pass complete to Ted Hurst for 37 yds to the MUR 17 for a 1ST down

99.4%

0.0

Q3 3:49

Branson Robinson run for 1 yd to the MUR 16

99.4%

0.0

Q3 3:04

Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for 16 yds for a TD (Braeden McAlister KICK)

100.0%

+0.6

MUR · Drive 22TD · 14 plays · 75 yds

Q3 3:04

Braeden McAlister kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

100.0%

0.0

Q3 2:26

Baxter Wright run for 8 yds to the MUR 33

99.8%

-0.1

Q3 2:10

Tyrell Campbell run for 18 yds to the GAST 49 for a 1ST down

99.8%

0.0

Q3 1:11

Baxter Wright run for 2 yds to the GAST 47

99.8%

0.0

Q3 1:11

Baxter Wright run for 1 yd to the GAST 46

99.8%

0.0

Q3 1:11

(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun Ogle,Jim pass incomplete deep right to Green,LJ thrown to GSU26 PENALTY GSU Pass Interference (Fillmore,Deuce) 15 yards from GSU46 to GSU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

99.8%

0.0

Q3 0:34

Tyrell Campbell run for no gain to the GAST 31

99.8%

0.0

Q3 0:34

Jim Ogle pass incomplete to LJ Green

99.8%

0.0

Q3 0:00

Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the GAST 29

99.8%

0.0

Q4 14:56

(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Ogle,Jim pass incomplete short middle to Desjardins,Lucas thrown to GSU16 PENALTY GSU Roughing The Passer (Dean,Marlin) 15 yards from GSU29 to GSU14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

99.8%

0.0

Q4 14:34

Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the GAST 13

99.8%

0.0

Q4 13:57

Jawaun Northington run for 7 yds to the GAST 6

99.8%

0.0

Q4 13:27

Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the GAST 4 for a 1ST down

99.8%

0.0

Q4 12:50

Lucas Desjardins 4 Yd pass from Jim Ogle (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

99.5%

-0.3

GAST · Drive 23TD · 12 plays · 70 yds

Q4 12:45

Jack Tannehill kickoff for 61 yds , TJ Peyton return for 26 yds to the GAST 30

99.6%

0.0

Q4 12:29

Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for 13 yds to the GAST 43 for a 1ST down

99.9%

+0.4

Q4 11:53

Rashad Amos run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

99.9%

0.0

Q4 11:13

Rashad Amos run for 18 yds to the MUR 32 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 10:26

Cameran Brown pass complete to Kyle Washington for 10 yds to the MUR 22 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 9:52

Djay Braswell run for 7 yds to the MUR 15

99.9%

0.0

Q4 9:24

Djay Braswell run for 1 yd to the MUR 14

99.9%

0.0

Q4 8:49

Rashad Amos run for 1 yd to the MUR 13

99.9%

0.0

Q4 8:11

Rashad Amos run for 4 yds to the MUR 9 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 7:29

Javon Robinson run for 6 yds to the MUR 3

99.9%

0.0

Q4 7:29

Timeout Georgia State, clock 07:29

99.9%

0.0

Q4 7:07

Cameran Brown pass complete to Camden Overton-Howard for 3 yds for a TD (Braeden McAlister KICK)

100.0%

0.0

MUR · Drive 24TD · 13 plays · 75 yds

Q4 7:07

Braeden McAlister kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

100.0%

0.0

Q4 6:59

Georgia State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Alex Mullings) to the MUR 36 for a 1ST down

99.9%

-0.1

Q4 6:36

Tyrell Campbell run for 5 yds to the MUR 41

99.9%

0.0

Q4 6:08

Tyrell Campbell run for 4 yds to the MUR 45

99.9%

0.0

Q4 5:33

Tyrell Campbell run for no gain to the MUR 45

99.9%

0.0

Q4 4:52

Tyrell Campbell run for 2 yds to the MUR 47 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 4:04

Baxter Wright pass complete to Jalen Richmond for 13 yds to the GAST 40 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 3:33

Baxter Wright run for no gain to the GAST 40

99.9%

0.0

Q4 3:05

Kevin Emmanuel run for 10 yds to the GAST 30 for a 1ST down Georgia State Penalty, Personal Foul (Richard Kramer) to the GAST 15 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 2:41

Baxter Wright pass complete to Jalen Richmond for 8 yds to the GAST 7

99.9%

0.0

Q4 2:17

Tyrell Campbell run for 4 yds to the GAST 3 for a 1ST down

99.9%

0.0

Q4 2:00

Timeout Georgia State, clock 02:00

99.9%

0.0

Q4 1:55

Baxter Wright 3 Yd Run (Baxter Wright Pass to Tyrell Campbell for Two-Point Conversion)

98.9%

-1.0

GAST · Drive 25END OF GAME · 4 plays · 8 yds

Q4 1:45

Jack Tannehill kickoff for 12 yds

99.0%

+0.1

Q4 0:58

Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the MUR 38

99.8%

+0.9

Q4 0:56

Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the MUR 32 for a 1ST down

99.8%

0.0

Q4 0:00

(00:21) Kneel down by Georgia St. at Murray34 for loss of 2 yards.

99.8%

0.0

Biggest swings

TD · Q4 1:55

Baxter Wright 3 Yd Run (Baxter Wright Pass to Tyrell Campbell for Two-Point Conversion)

-1

KEY PLAY · Q4 0:58

Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the MUR 38

+0.9

TD · Q3 3:04

Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for 16 yds for a TD (Braeden McAlister KICK)

+0.6