2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreAPP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · (00:30) Kneel down by App State at GSU50 for loss of 2 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:04: JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 12 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK) — APP win probability +5.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:37: JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 11 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK) — APP win probability +7.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:10: Jaquari Lewis run for 14 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK) — APP win probability +10.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:10: JJ Kohl pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 6 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK) — APP win probability +2.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:50: Grant Hollier 15 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Cameran Brown Pass to Ted Hurst for Two-Point Conversion) — GAST win probability +4.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 8 of 11APP made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 13:50APP 4th & 6 at APP 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snapGo for it55.6%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.6%average punt
- Q1 9:51GAST 4th & 10 at APP 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snapGo for it45.5%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call45.6%87% to makePunt44.8%−0.8average punt
- Q1 8:31APP 4th & 2 at APP 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snapGo for it54.0%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.0%average punt
- Q1 6:41GAST 4th & 7 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snapGo for it46.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.1%average punt
- Q2 13:24GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 37, down 7Close callPunted · 41.0% before the snapGo for it41.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 11:36APP 4th & 5 at APP 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snapGo for it58.0%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.1%average punt
- Q2 10:17GAST 4th & 2 at APP 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.0%57% to convertField goal40.2%−1.747% to makePunt39.6%−2.3average punt
- Q2 8:13APP 4th & 6 at APP 38, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snapGo for it60.9%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.2%average punt
- Q2 6:40GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snapGo for it37.1%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.4%average punt
- Q2 4:42APP 4th & 1 at APP 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt62.4%−1.3average punt
- Q2 1:18GAST 4th & 14 at GAST 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snapGo for it24.8%−1.018% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.8%average punt
- Q2 0:00APP 4th & 10 at GAST 14, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.7% before the snapGo for it75.2%−1.126% to convertField goalTheir call76.3%84% to makePunt69.6%−6.6average punt
- Q3 10:51GAST 4th & 8 at APP 41, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.1%34% to convertField goal10.1%−1.032% to makePunt10.8%−0.3average punt
- Q3 10:51GAST 4th & 8 at APP 41, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.1%34% to convertField goal10.1%−1.032% to makePunt10.8%−0.3average punt
- Q4 11:56APP 4th & 11 at GAST 30, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call97.5%56% to makePunt97.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 10:47GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 31, down 24Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%−0.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.4%average punt
- Q4 10:47GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 31, down 24Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%−0.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.4%average punt
- Q4 10:00APP 4th & 6 at GAST 27, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.9%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call98.0%62% to makePunt97.0%−0.9average punt
- Q4 5:01APP 4th & 3 at GAST 40, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%52% to convertField goal98.7%−0.234% to makePunt98.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:01APP 4th & 3 at GAST 40, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%52% to convertField goal98.7%−0.234% to makePunt98.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:28GAST 4th & 8 at APP 46, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%34% to convertField goal1.0%−<0.123% to makePunt1.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 0 of 3APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 1:04APP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.0%97% to makeGo for two56.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:37APP Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.6%97% to makeGo for two70.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:10APP Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.1%97% to makeGo for two88.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 8:10APP Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:40GAST Touchdown, down 25 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick2.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call2.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:40APP Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:50GAST Touchdown, down 26 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick1.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:25GAST Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick1.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAPPDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0552% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2MISSED FG13 plays · 54 yds · 3:5548% → 49%
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
48.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 12 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
48.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 4 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+13
48.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 13 yds to the APP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+5
49.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 5 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
49.1%
Braeden McAlister 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by DeNigel Cooper (09:51) McAlister,Braeden field goal attempt from 28 yards NO GOOD blocked by Cooper,DeNigel (H: Gaines,Bo, LS: Radnoti,Spencer), clock 09:51 recovered by GSU Gaines,Bo at APP15, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1651% → 51%
Q1 8:31
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
49.4%
Ian Ratliff punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Javon Robinson at the GAST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 1:3749% → 49%
APPDrive 5TD14 plays · 98 yds · 5:3151% → 57%
Q1 5:46
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+18
50.0%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 18 yds to the APP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+25
49.7%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 25 yds to the GAST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+24
48.1%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Sam Mbake for 24 yds to the GAST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
43.5%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 12 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2645% → 44%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 19
-12
44.9%
Cameran Brown sacked by Aiden Benton for a loss of 12 yards to the GAST 31 Cameran Brown fumbled, recovered by GAST Deandre Duffus , return for 0 yards for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+8
44.1%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Avion McBride for 8 yds to the GAST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4056% → 55%
Q2 11:36
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+6
44.6%
Ian Ratliff punt for 38 yds , Javon Robinson returns for 6 yds to the APP 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1545% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5758% → 59%
Q2 8:13
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
41.2%
Ian Ratliff punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Javon Robinson at the GAST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1841% → 39%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
40.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 4 yds to the GAST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD10 plays · 83 yds · 3:4460% → 73%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
40.3%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Alex Sanchez for 15 yds to the APP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+17
37.1%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 17 yds to the GAST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
35.4%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 18 yds to the GAST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
26.7%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 11 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 14 yds · 1:1628% → 23%
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Dennis Murray Jr. for 7 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
28.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ted Hurst for 11 yds to the GAST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
29.3%
TJ Finley sacked by Thomas Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the GAST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13FG10 plays · 66 yds · 1:0976% → 82%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
24.0%
JJ Kohl sacked by Richard Kramer for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 18Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+15
24.2%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun Kohl,J.J. pass intercepted by Diagne,Chams at APP35, End Of Play PENALTY GSU Pass Interference (Diagne,Chams) 15 yards from APP18 to APP33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
23.5%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Alex Sanchez for 12 yds to the APP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
22.3%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 26 yds to the GAST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+15
20.5%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Kohl,J.J. pass incomplete deep left to Hamlett,Kanen thrown to GSU09 PENALTY GSU Pass Interference (Diagne,Chams) 15 yards from GSU29 to GSU14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14INT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2123% → 23%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Dennis Murray Jr. for 1 yd to the GAST 26Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
22.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 11 yds Javon Robinson fumbled, recovered by GAST Javon Robinson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-3
22.9%
TJ Finley pass intercepted Colton Phares return for 3 yds to the GAST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD3 plays · 37 yds · 1:0580% → 91%
GASTDrive 16DOWNS8 plays · 34 yds · 0:5111% → 12%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
11.1%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Javon Robinson for 16 yds to the GAST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
11.8%
Cameran Brown run for 6 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Emory Floyd) to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
11.6%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Leo Blackburn for 2 yds to the APP 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD6 plays · 59 yds · 2:2392% → 97%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
8.1%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 24 yds to the GAST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+27
6.5%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Kanen Hamlett for 27 yds to the GAST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
3.1%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 6 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:223% → 2%
Q3 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
2.8%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for 11 yds to the GAST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+16
2.5%
Cameran Brown pass complete to DJ Riles for 16 yds to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
2.6%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Grant Hollier for 13 yds to the APP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+16
2.4%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Lane Wadle for 16 yds to the APP 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
2.3%
Cameran Brown run for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD4 plays · 49 yds · 0:4799% → 99%
GASTDrive 20TD11 plays · 75 yds · 2:321% → 5%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.4%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Javon Robinson for 11 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+12
1.5%
Cameran Brown pass complete to DJ Riles for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
50
+17
1.5%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Lane Wadle for 17 yds to the APP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
1.7%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for 14 yds to the APP 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
5.2%
Grant Hollier 15 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Cameran Brown Pass to Ted Hurst for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21MISSED FG9 plays · 32 yds · 3:0498% → 98%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
1.9%
Noah Gillon pass complete to Kanen Hamlett for no gain to the GAST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22DOWNS5 plays · 1 yds · 0:593% → 3%
APPDrive 23FG5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4299% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:140% → 2%
Q4 9:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
0.3%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Javon Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 30Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
0.3%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for 7 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+20
0.3%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Ted Hurst for 20 yds to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
0.3%
(07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Cameran pass intercepted by Willis,Jaelin at APP40 Willis,Jaelin return 60 yards to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 07:00 PENALTY APP Roughing The Passer (Davis,Thomas) 15 yards from APP43 to APP28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+22
1.7%
Cameran Brown pass complete to Javon Robinson for 22 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25DOWNS7 plays · 7 yds · 0:5699% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26DOWNS5 plays · 14 yds · 1:201% → 1%
APPDrive 27END OF GAME7 plays · 4 yds · 3:20100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:10
Jaquari Lewis run for 14 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
-10.1
TD · Q2 2:37
JJ Kohl pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 11 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q1 1:04
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 12 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
-5.2