Georgia State

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1149th
  Defense+0.0475th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.9%43rd
  Defense40.6%69th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2862nd
  Defense+1.3618th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0647th
  Defense−0.0171st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1855th
  Defense+0.0875th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.8%29th
  Defense43.9%77th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense35.1%71st
  Defense33.8%34th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7230th
  Defense2.7566th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.7%33rd
  Defense24.2%85th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.3%35th
  Defense19.9%93rd

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   UL
2. W
   ECU
3. L
   ARST
4. W
   TROY
5. L
   CCU
6. W
   ULM
7. L
   APP
8. W
   USA
9. W
   GASO
10. W
    WKU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia State.

Players, 2020

1. Cornelious Brown IVQB362 plays · +0.141 pts/play · 23rd of 212 QBs
   0.95WAR0.25 to 1.62
2. Destin CoatesRB162 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 26th of 338 RBs
   0.50WAR0.35 to 0.65
3. Tucker GreggRB87 plays · +0.205 pts/play · 84th of 338 RBs
   0.33WAR0.26 to 0.41
4. Sam PinckneyWR64 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 28th of 409 WRs
   0.18WAR0.09 to 0.28
5. Terrance DixonWR38 plays · +0.126 pts/play · 147th of 409 WRs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.12
6. Cornelius McCoyWR41 plays · +0.114 pts/play · 159th of 409 WRs
   0.09WAR0.03 to 0.14
7. Michael Hayes IIPK42 plays · +0.090 pts/play · 9th of 97 kickers
   0.07WAR0.02 to 0.13
8. Roger CarterTE34 plays · +0.080 pts/play · 15th of 191 TEs
   0.05WAR−0.01 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  333333108th of 127Roster talent: 333, 108th of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  135135100th of 127Recruiting: 135, 100th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  43%43%101st of 127Returning production: 43%, 101st of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −5.7−5.793rd of 127SP+ rating: −5.7, 93rd of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.01 of the 0.06 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ULQ4 1:40 4th & 8 at UL 44, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
2. vs ECUQ4 8:07 4th & 1 at GAST 46, up 19Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
3. vs ULMQ3 2:58 4th & 1 at ULM 3, up 22Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
4. vs GASOQ2 14:56 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
5. at APPQ3 4:06 4th & 5 at APP 44, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
6. vs ECUQ4 4:33 4th & 2 at ECU 26, up 13Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. at TROYQ1 9:00 4th & 3 at TROY 43, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. vs WKUQ4 11:19 4th & 4 at WKU 12, up 16Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

10th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   UL
2. W

   ECU
3. L

   ARST
4. W

   TROY
5. L

   CCU
6. W

   ULM
7. L

   APP
8. W

   USA
9. W

   GASO
10. W

    WKU

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Georgia State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.29
• Possession & field position−0.02
• Clock+0.15
• Timeouts−0.11
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.49

Game by game

• ULL 31-34 vs UL12% → 12%Before kickoff −38 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −22, Timeouts −10
• ECUW 49-29 vs ECU39% → 99%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +49, Clock +1
• ARSTL 52-59 at ARST36% → 3%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −2
• TROYW 36-34 at TROY39% → 90%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +47, Clock +3
• CCUL 0-51 vs CCU35% → 0%Before kickoff −15 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −40, Clock −1
• ULMW 52-34 vs ULM88% → 99%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +16, Timeouts +1
• APPL 13-17 at APP10% → 9%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −15, Possession & field position −1
• USAW 31-14 at USA56% → 98%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +48, Clock +2
• GASOW 30-24 vs GASO51% → 96%Before kickoff +1 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +2
• WKUW 39-21 vs WKU60% → 100%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts −1

Points of win probability, from Georgia State's side.

Closest call

GAST 42-40 CCU (2021) - Georgia State dropped to a 1.4% win probability before pulling it out.