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GAST

Georgia State 52 at Arkansas State 59

ARST
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2020 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:03 · Cornelious Brown IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 19 Cornelious Brown IV fumbled, forced by Forrest Merrill, recovered by GeoSt Tucker Gregg
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Pregame prior+8.9Home team on offense−2.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:21: Lincoln Pare 8 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick) — ARST win probability +17.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:44: Tucker Gregg 7 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick) — GAST win probability +18.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:54: Sam Pinckney 31 Yd pass from Cornelious Brown IV (Noel Ruiz Kick) — GAST win probability +26.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:40: Jonathan Adams Jr. 32 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick) — ARST win probability +31.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:23: Lincoln Pare 22 Yd pass from Roshauud Paul (Blake Grupe Kick) — ARST win probability +26.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9GAST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:48GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:44GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:11ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:37GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:22ARST 4th & 10 at GAST 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.3%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:34GAST 4th & 2 at ARST 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:49GAST 4th & 5 at ARST 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:11ARST 4th & 2 at GAST 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−1.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:49ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−1.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:03GAST 4th & 2 at ARST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−0.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−5.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:15ARST 4th & 2 at GAST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−2.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:00ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.2%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:07GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:36ARST 4th & 10 at GAST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−10.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:50ARST 4th & 3 at GAST 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    41.1%−3.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−3.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:36GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:24ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 28, up 3
    Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:55GAST 4th & 5 at ARST 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−3.9
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−15.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:04GAST 4th & 5 at ARST 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−2.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:58ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:34GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:20ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:11GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:00ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:29GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:48ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:14GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 13:30GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 8:21ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 6:21ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 4:44GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 14:54GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 12:40ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 4:23ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · -17 yds · 0:5036% → 36%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
64.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-5
64.0%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+6
64.0%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
64.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 3
OWN 29
-24
64.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 24 yards to the GeoSt 5 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Leroy DeshazorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4264% → 65%
Q1 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
64.2%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
64.2%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.8%
Reed Tyler 3 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0835% → 35%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
64.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 15 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
64.6%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
64.7%
Terrance Dixon run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
64.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
65.0%
Michael Hayes punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2665% → 65%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
65.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 14
OWN 34
-10
65.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 24
OWN 24
+5
65.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 19
OWN 29
0
65.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
65.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 54 yds, downed at the GeoSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2835% → 34%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
65.3%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
65.4%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+1
65.7%
Seth Paige run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
66.0%
Michael Hayes punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the ArkSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4866% → 66%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
66.3%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+15
66.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
66.8%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
66.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-3
66.8%
Logan Bonner sacked by Hardrick Willis for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
66.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 43 yds, downed at the GeoSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
5 plays · 99 yds · 1:3734% → 38%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+56
66.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 56 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
65.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Aubry PayneSimilar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
65.5%
Terrance Dixon run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
65.4%
Cornelious Brown IV run for no gain to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+35
62.4%
Cornelious Brown IV 35 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:5063% → 68%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
63.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 14 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
64.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+49
68.1%
Dahu Green 49 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:2133% → 33%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.0%
Seth Paige run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
66.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jarius Reimonenq) to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
65.7%
Cornelious Brown IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+8
66.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Seth Paige for 8 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
65.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
66.6%
Michael Hayes punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:2967% → 65%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
67.2%
Isaiah Azubuike run for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
67.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 11 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
67.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 17 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
68.6%
Isaiah Azubuike run for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
68.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Isaiah Azubuike for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+8
67.7%
Logan Bonner run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+5
68.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Giles Amos for 5 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
69.6%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+14
69.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 14 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
70.0%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+74
65.1%
Blake Carroll 74 Yd Fumble Return (Noel Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1163% → 61%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
62.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 12 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
62.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-6
62.8%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Trajan Stephens-McQueen for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 15
OWN 25
-4
61.5%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 19
OWN 21
0
61.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 27 yds, downed at the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:3741% → 42%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+24
58.7%
Jamyest Williams run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
57.8%
Jamyest Williams run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
57.7%
Jamyest Williams run for no gain to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+2
58.5%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 2
OPP 16
-3
58.4%
Cornelious Brown IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 19 Cornelious Brown IV fumbled, forced by Forrest Merrill, recovered by GeoSt Tucker GreggSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 2:0062% → 74%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
62.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Antavious Lane) to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
62.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
62.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 12 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
64.3%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
50
-10
64.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jarrett Horst) to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+14
62.7%
Logan Bonner run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
64.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+4
64.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
74.2%
Jonathan Adams Jr. 42 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2127% → 43%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
72.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 57 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
68.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+2
68.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
56.7%
Cornelious Brown IV 11 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:3264% → 76%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
64.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 11 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
64.9%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-7
64.6%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Trajan Stephens-McQueen and Jordan Strachan for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+5
62.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Hardrick Willis) to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+19
62.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 19 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
66.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jamal JonesSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
65.5%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+5
64.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dontae Wilson) to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+8
65.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 8 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
67.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
66.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 12 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
76.1%
Dahu Green 20 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:2926% → 47%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.1%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
74.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
72.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 26 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+21
53.0%
Sam Pinckney 21 Yd pass from Cornelious Brown IV (Noel Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17END OF HALF
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0863% → 61%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
62.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
62.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-2
61.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5062% → 62%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
61.9%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+7
62.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 7 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
63.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 14:00
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
61.5%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the ArkSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:2046% → 59%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
54.5%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+36
40.7%
Sam Pinckney 36 Yd pass from Cornelious Brown IV (Noel Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5045% → 64%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
45.2%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
47.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
45.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
45.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 14 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
48.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 14 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
49.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 2
OPP 26
0
49.2%
Logan Bonner run for no gain to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+1
47.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+5
45.3%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
48.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+2
48.3%
Logan Bonner run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
64.1%
Brandon Bowling 16 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5343% → 40%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.2%
Seth Paige run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
56.4%
Seth Paige run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
58.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Seth PaigeSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
59.7%
Michael Hayes punt for 26 yds, downed at the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:4064% → 80%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
63.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Brandon BowlingSimilar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+45
63.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 45 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
80.4%
Lincoln Pare 8 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:3226% → 50%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 11 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
72.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Johnathan Bass) to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+15
73.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jeffmario Brown) to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+46
72.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 46 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
68.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
68.9%
Cornelious Brown IV run for no gain to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Rice) to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
50.1%
Tucker Gregg 7 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 1:5460% → 67%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
60.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 8 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+27
63.7%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 12 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Dontae Wilson) to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
64.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+13
65.3%
Jamal Jones run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
65.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
65.2%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
63.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
66.6%
Blake Grupe 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3334% → 66%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
66.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
64.5%
Tucker Gregg run for no gain to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
64.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 9 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+6
62.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
60.0%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 34 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Tucker Gregg) to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
61.5%
Jamyest Williams run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
61.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q3 0:14
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+6
61.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
60.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+31
33.8%
Sam Pinckney 31 Yd pass from Cornelious Brown IV (Noel Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 1:5343% → 76%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
42.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 17 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
43.4%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+21
42.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 21 yds Corey Rucker fumbled, recovered by ArkSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
47.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
47.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+6
45.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Victor Heyward) to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
47.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dahu GreenSimilar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+9
44.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 9 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
75.5%
Jonathan Adams Jr. 32 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5432% → 30%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.8%
Jamyest Williams run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
66.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 1 yd to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
68.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+9
70.4%
Michael Hayes punt for 57 yds , Roshauud Paul returns for 9 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0671% → 69%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
70.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 6 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
71.6%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
70.0%
Isaiah Azubuike run for no gain to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
69.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds, downed at the GeoSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 29FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:1533% → 49%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
67.4%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
65.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 9 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
61.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Aubry Payne for 4 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
61.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Seth Hayes) to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
60.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+4
59.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
61.8%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+3
60.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Tucker Gregg for 3 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
62.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
50.9%
Noel Ruiz 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0760% → 94%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
59.1%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
59.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+42
61.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 42 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
67.5%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
93.9%
Lincoln Pare 22 Yd pass from Roshauud Paul (Blake Grupe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 31DOWNS
11 plays · 33 yds · 2:1412% → 11%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
88.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
88.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Tucker Gregg for 7 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+7
88.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Aubry Payne for 7 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
87.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
87.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Aubry PayneSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+14
88.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 14 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
86.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41 Tucker Gregg fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Matlin MarshallSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
85.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
86.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
89.1%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 32END OF 4TH QUARTER
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:4096% → 97%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
95.8%
Jamal Jones run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+1
95.7%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+5
96.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-2
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:40
Jonathan Adams Jr. 32 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)
+31.2
TD · Q4 4:23
Lincoln Pare 22 Yd pass from Roshauud Paul (Blake Grupe Kick)
+26.4
TD · Q4 14:54
Sam Pinckney 31 Yd pass from Cornelious Brown IV (Noel Ruiz Kick)
-26.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com