Try the model
GAST

Georgia State 13 at App State 17

APP
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:53 · Michael Hayes punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Pregame prior+33.6Home team on offense−1.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:54: Destin Coates run for no gain to the GeoSt 20 — GAST win probability +9.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:46: Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 9 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +17.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:29: Noel Ruiz 32 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +11.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:55: Camerun Peoples run for 10 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +38.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:55: Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by D'Marco Jackson — GAST win probability +10.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 8GAST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:11APP 4th & 3 at APP 17, down 7
    Close callPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:53APP 4th & 4 at GAST 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.0%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    78.8%−2.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:53GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00APP 4th & 4 at APP 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:29GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:05APP 4th & 8 at APP 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:38GAST 4th & 3 at APP 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:11APP 4th & 8 at GAST 33, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:28GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:45APP 4th & 11 at APP 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:11GAST 4th & 6 at APP 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−5.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:56APP 4th & 16 at APP 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:49GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:06GAST 4th & 5 at APP 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    53.0%−2.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:29GAST 4th & 8 at APP 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−2.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−16.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:40APP 4th & 2 at APP 40, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:23GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−3.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:55GAST 4th & 17 at GAST 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GAST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:17GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:46APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:55APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4310% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
89.6%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
89.6%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
89.6%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+9
89.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 9 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
89.6%
Destin Coates run for 9 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
89.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+13
89.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 13 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
89.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by Nick HamptonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-2
89.6%
Terrance Dixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 33 Terrance Dixon fumbled, forced by Ryan Huff,Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+14
89.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 14 yds to the AppSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
89.6%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the AppSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
89.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
87.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 19 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
87.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-4
87.4%
Zac Thomas sacked by Jordan Strachan for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 9Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+8
87.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 8 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
87.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
86.0%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line Destin Coates fumbled, forced by Caleb Spurlin, recovered by AppSt D'Marco Jackson , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:0687% → 85%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
50
+1
86.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+6
86.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 6 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+8
86.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 8 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
86.8%
Zac Thomas run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-1
86.8%
Camerun Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+12
86.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 12 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
86.8%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
86.8%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+14
86.6%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Virgil, Jalen, PENALTY GSU pass interference (White, Quavian) 14 yards to the GSU2, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q1 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
86.7%
Camerun Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
84.9%
Chandler Staton 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.6%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-3
84.3%
Tucker Gregg run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 33 Tucker Gregg fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Cornelious Brown IVSimilar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
84.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
84.1%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
84.1%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Sam Pinckney, broken up by Shemar Jean-CharlesSimilar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
84.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoySimilar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
84.8%
Michael Hayes punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:3383% → 83%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
83.2%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
82.9%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+16
82.5%
Zac Thomas run for 16 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.0%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
83.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christian Wells for 6 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
83.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+6
82.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 30 , Quavian White returns for 6 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
81.3%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
81.4%
Matlin Marshall run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
81.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+4
82.0%
Michael Hayes punt for 46 yds , Malik Williams returns for 4 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Quavian WhiteSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-4
80.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
80.0%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
79.1%
Jamyest Williams run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
78.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
78.7%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
78.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 11 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
78.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 4 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
78.2%
Destin Coates run for 5 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 1
OPP 33
-2
78.3%
Cornelious Brown IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
79.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:2977% → 76%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
77.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 11 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
79.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+1
79.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 6
50
+15
78.0%
Thomas, Zac sacked for loss of 15 yards to the APP35 (Smith, Akeem), fumble by Thomas, Zac recovered by GSU Gore, Thomas at APP30, Gore, Thomas for 30 yards to the APP0, clock 04:52, PENALTY GSU personal foul (Strachan, J.) 15 yards to the GSU35, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
79.4%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
79.5%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
77.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+7
75.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 7 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
74.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Terrance Dixon, broken up by Kaiden SmithSimilar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+14
74.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
72.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
73.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Terrance DixonSimilar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
73.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Destin CoatesSimilar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
75.0%
Michael Hayes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:3874% → 73%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
73.6%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 20 Zac Thomas fumbled, recovered by AppSt Zac ThomasSimilar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 12
OWN 20
-3
73.3%
Zac Thomas sacked by Hardrick Willis for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 17Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+4
73.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 4 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
72.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 1:2828% → 38%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
71.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 6 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-9
71.1%
Cornelious Brown IV sacked by D'Marco Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+48
73.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 48 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
67.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+21
68.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 21 yds to the AppSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
67.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Terrance Dixon, broken up by Ryan HuffSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
67.9%
Matlin Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 6Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
68.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
62.0%
Noel Ruiz 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
67.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
65.8%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
67.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
66.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
66.6%
Zac Thomas run for 5 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
68.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
50
-3
68.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+3
66.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
50
-6
66.4%
Zac Thomas sacked by Jeffery Clark for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
64.0%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.9%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
59.2%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-2
60.2%
Cornelious Brown IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
61.1%
Michael Hayes punt for 36 yds, downed at the AppSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
61.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
62.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
61.7%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
61.9%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted, touchback. Antavious Lane return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:4847% → 53%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
52.7%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
53.1%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+13
53.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 13 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
50.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+12
49.9%
Destin Coates run for 12 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-9
49.2%
Cornelious Brown IV sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 46 Cornelious Brown IV fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Travis Glover , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
51.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Jamari Thrash, broken up by Ryan HuffSimilar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+10
47.9%
Destin Coates run for 10 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
46.8%
Cornelious Brown IV punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:3450% → 74%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
50.0%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+12
50.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christian Wells for 12 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
50.9%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 35Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+55
50.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 55 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
57.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
74.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 9 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:1735% → 50%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Terrance DixonSimilar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+40
65.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 40 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
58.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 8 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+6
58.2%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 6 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
58.2%
Tucker Gregg run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
58.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+4
61.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
49.8%
Noel Ruiz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4355% → 52%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
54.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
51.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 5 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
53.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
51.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 39 yds , Quavian White returns for no gain to the GeoSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0057% → 53%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
43.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
43.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Roger Carter, broken up by Kaiden SmithSimilar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
44.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Roger Carter, broken up by D'Marco JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
46.9%
Michael Hayes punt for 54 yds, downed at the AppSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:3346% → 89%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
46.2%
Zac Thomas run for 15 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
48.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 36Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+16
45.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 16 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
51.7%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+12
47.8%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Camerun Peoples for 12 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+1
50.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
51.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
51.6%
Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+14
50.4%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 14 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
54.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
88.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 10 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Cornelius McCoy, broken up by D'Marco JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.1%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
78.3%
Brown, C. pass incomplete to Pinckney, Sam (Cobb, Trey), PENALTY APP pass interference (Cobb, Trey) 4 yards to the GSU30, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
75.3%
Cornelious Brown IV sacked by Nick Hampton and Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 17
OWN 23
0
77.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Destin CoatesSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 17
OWN 23
0
78.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Sam Pinckney, broken up by Shaun Jolly GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 17
OWN 23
0
79.7%
Michael Hayes punt for 51 yds, downed at the AppSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25END OF GAME
10 plays · 41 yds · 1:0587% → 91%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
87.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+15
87.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (- Stephensmcqueen) to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
91.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+8
90.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
90.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
91.0%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 7 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+6
91.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
91.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:55
Camerun Peoples run for 10 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+38.6
TD · Q3 0:46
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 9 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+17
FG · Q4 12:29
Noel Ruiz 32 yd FG GOOD
-11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com