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GAST

Georgia State 36 at Troy 34

TROY
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-9TROY 13.5%Noel Ruiz 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 36 - HOME 28 · Q4 6:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:54 · Noel Ruiz 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Home team on offense−25.1Pregame prior+1.2Garbage-time factor−12.4Score differential−7.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:02: Tucker Gregg run for 27 yds for a TD Brown, C. pass attempt to Pinckney, Sam good, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Dixon, Terrance) 15 yards to the TROY18, NO PLAY. (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +10.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 6:05: Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 36 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz PAT BLOCKED) — GAST win probability +20.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:24: Cornelious Brown IV run for 2 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +16.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:29: Jacob Free pass complete to AJ Lewis for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +19.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:37: Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 11 yds for a TD Timeout TROY, clock 00:37 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TROY win probability +26.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7GAST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:23TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:00GAST 4th & 3 at TROY 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    44.0%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:28TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:47GAST 4th & 6 at TROY 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    45.8%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:55GAST 4th & 11 at TROY 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:37GAST 4th & 11 at TROY 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    42% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:23TROY 4th & 6 at GAST 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:39GAST 4th & 2 at TROY 13, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.2
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:02GAST 4th & 2 at TROY 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−1.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−9.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:02TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 22, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−4.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:24TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 43, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−2.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 12, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−3.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:29GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.9%−4.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:54GAST 4th & 8 at TROY 20, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−2.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−17.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:32GAST 4th & 14 at TROY 46, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    86.4%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:21TROY 4th & 4 at GAST 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−2.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:57TROY 4th & 3 at GAST 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−0.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−5.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:23GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:58TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:07TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:02GAST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:05GAST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:24GAST Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:29TROY Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:37TROY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    19.4%−10.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3739% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.6%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
60.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Destin Coates for 10 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
60.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Destin Coates for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
60.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Destin Coates for 5 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
60.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Destin Coates for 1 yd to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+26
60.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 11 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Troy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
60.6%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+9
60.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 9 yds to the Troy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
60.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for no gain to the Troy 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
60.6%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
58.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 4 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
58.9%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
58.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
58.7%
Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
58.5%
Kyle Coale punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
57.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
57.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+8
57.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
57.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 7 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
57.5%
Terrance Dixon run for no gain to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
57.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for no gain to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
57.9%
Michael Hayes punt for 41 yds, downed at the Troy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+10
57.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the Troy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
57.1%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
57.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 2 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
56.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Tray Eafford, broken up by Blake CarrollSimilar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
56.6%
Kyle Coale punt for 34 yds, downed at the Troy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
55.3%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
55.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
55.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
55.9%
Michael Hayes punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 3:0456% → 62%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
56.1%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+10
56.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 10 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
56.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 11 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
56.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 15
OWN 34
-3
56.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 18
OWN 31
-5
56.1%
TROY Penalty, false start (Derrick Graham) to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 23
OWN 26
+31
56.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 31 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
57.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 9 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+16
58.0%
Watson, Gunnar deep pass incomplete to Todd, Reggie, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Jones, Jaylon) 16 yards to the GSU18, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
58.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 8 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+10
62.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 10 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 5:0341% → 43%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.5%
Jamyest Williams run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
59.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 22 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
58.2%
Jamyest Williams run for no gain to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
58.3%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+13
58.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 13 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
57.8%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 5 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
57.3%
Destin Coates run for 6 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
56.8%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
-5
57.0%
Terrance Dixon run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+3
58.8%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+46
57.1%
Noel Ruiz 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8FUMBLE
9 plays · 59 yds · 0:4356% → 60%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
56.4%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 7 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
57.6%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+5
56.2%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 5 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
57.2%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 39 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
59.8%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+78
59.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 35 Kimani Vidal fumbled, forced by Blake Carroll, recovered by GeoSt Jordan Strachan , return for 63 yds to the Troy 0 GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Strachan) to the Troy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4247% → 44%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
53.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
54.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
54.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+53
56.2%
Noel Ruiz 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10MISSED FG
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:1457% → 56%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+48
56.6%
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 48 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
59.4%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
59.4%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by Cameron SimsSimilar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
58.3%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Reggie Todd, broken up by Antavious LaneSimilar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
55.9%
Evan Legassey 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11INT TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:1646% → 35%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
54.5%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
54.7%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-35
64.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass intercepted for a TD Reddy Steward return for 35 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:3836% → 27%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.3%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
73.1%
Cornelious Brown IV sacked by Will Choloh for a loss of 8 yards Cornelious Brown IV fumbled, recovered by Troy Shakel Brown , return for 0 yards , return for 21 yds (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:5027% → 30%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.4%
Coates, Destin rush up middle for 7 yards to the GSU32 (Martial, C.;Griffin, Elgin), PENALTY TROY offside 5 yards to the GSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+21
72.4%
Destin Coates run for 21 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
71.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+14
71.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 14 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
70.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+7
70.1%
Destin Coates run for 7 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
71.0%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
70.1%
Destin Coates run for 6 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 4
OPP 15
-2
70.1%
Cornelious Brown IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 17Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+4
71.0%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 4 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+31
70.2%
Noel Ruiz 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
73.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15INT
9 plays · 72 yds · 0:0075% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
74.6%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 8 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+7
75.3%
Jamontez Woods run for 7 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
74.9%
Jacob Free pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 17 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
76.5%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 7 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+19
76.6%
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 19 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
76.7%
Khalil McClain run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
76.7%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-42
76.7%
Jacob Free pass intercepted Antavious Lane return for 42 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:3427% → 40%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
72.9%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
71.9%
Jamyest Williams run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+17
72.1%
Jamyest Williams run for 17 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
70.1%
Jamyest Williams run for 4 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
69.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+1
71.2%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+27
60.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 27 yds for a TD Brown, C. pass attempt to Pinckney, Sam good, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Dixon, Terrance) 15 yards to the TROY18, NO PLAY. (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
63.2%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 12
OWN 22
0
62.7%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Marcus Rogers, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
61.4%
Jacob Free pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
60.7%
Jack Martin punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Terrance Dixon at the GeoSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:0138% → 62%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
62.0%
Destin Coates run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+12
60.3%
Destin Coates run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
58.9%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+11
58.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 11 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
58.5%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+36
38.1%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 36 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
43.6%
Jacob Free pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 1 yd to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 14
-6
43.5%
Jacob Free sacked by Jordan Strachan for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 8 Jacob Free fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Jordan Strachan , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20TD
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4564% → 78%
Q3 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
36.4%
Coates, Destin rush left for 8 yards to the TROY0, clock 05:09, PENALTY GSU holding (McCray, Herman) 10 yards to the TROY18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+5
36.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 5 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
36.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Terrance DixonSimilar
Q3 5:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+11
38.8%
Brown, C. deep pass incomplete, PENALTY TROY pass interference (McDonald, J.) 11 yards to the TROY2, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.8%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 2 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
27.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
27.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 5 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+12
26.9%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 12 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
28.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
29.1%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-8
28.4%
Jacob Free sacked by Jordan Strachan for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
25.5%
Jack Martin punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Terrance Dixon at the GeoSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0179% → 81%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
21.2%
Jamyest Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 11
OWN 10
-3
21.3%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 14
OWN 7
+5
22.2%
Destin Coates run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 12
+5
19.2%
Michael Hayes punt for 45 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 5 yds to the Troy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:2024% → 46%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
23.7%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+35
24.8%
Jacob Free pass complete to Khalil McClain for 35 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
26.6%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+9
26.6%
Free, Jacob middle pass incomplete to Todd, Reggie, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Jones, Jaylon) 9 yards to the GSU2, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.3%
Jacob Free pass complete to AJ Lewis for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 6:3565% → 87%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
34.7%
Cornelious Brown IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
35.1%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 8 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
34.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
32.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
31.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
32.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
34.0%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
31.3%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
31.1%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+27
31.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
29.4%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
23.1%
Destin Coates run for no gain to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
22.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
13.5%
Noel Ruiz 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0018% → 21%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.6%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.1%
Jacob Free pass complete to Khalil McClain for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
16.4%
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 14 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
20.0%
Jacob Free pass complete to Tray Eafford for 7 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-17
21.4%
Jacob Free pass intercepted Cameron Sims return for 17 yds to the TROY 34 TROY Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0090% → 88%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
9.8%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
9.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Roger Carter, broken up by Dell PettusSimilar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 12
OPP 44
-2
10.5%
Tucker Gregg run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
12.4%
Michael Hayes punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:3714% → 10%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
13.8%
Jacob Free pass complete to B.J. Smith for 17 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+22
14.6%
Jacob Free pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 22 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-9
18.6%
Jacob Free sacked by Ahijah Blackwell and Jordan Strachan for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 19
OWN 45
+15
14.2%
Jacob Free pass complete to B.J. Smith for 15 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
18.5%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
10.2%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to B.J. SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28FUMBLE
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0094% → 95%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
5.8%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+11
5.9%
Destin Coates run for 11 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
5.4%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 47 Destin Coates fumbled, forced by KJ Robertson, recovered by Troy Kyle Nixon , return for 18 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 29TD
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:4310% → 40%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
9.9%
Free, Jacob middle pass incomplete to Geiger, Kaylon, PENALTY GSU pass interference (StephensMcQueen) 11 yards to the GSU36, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
10.1%
TROY Penalty, false start (Jake Andrews) to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 15
OPP 41
0
8.9%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+12
8.9%
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 12 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
11.4%
Jacob Free pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+8
8.7%
Jacob Free pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
12.6%
Jacob Free pass complete to B.J. Smith for 10 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
13.1%
Jacob Free pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
40.1%
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 11 yds for a TD Timeout TROY, clock 00:37 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
9.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:37
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 11 yds for a TD Timeout TROY, clock 00:37 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+26.9
TD · Q3 6:05
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 36 yds for a TD (Noel Ruiz PAT BLOCKED)
-20.4
TD · Q4 13:29
Jacob Free pass complete to AJ Lewis for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
+19.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com