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GAST

Georgia State 31 at South Alabama 14

USA
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:56 · Michael Hayes punt for 42 yds GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Jamyest Williams) to the SAlab 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Home team on offense−2.4Score differential−2.2Pregame prior−3.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:41: Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by Jacorey Crawford — USA win probability +9.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:11: Jared Wilson run for 7 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +17.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:16: Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — GAST win probability +21.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:05: Tucker Gregg run for 33 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — GAST win probability +19.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:33: Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK) — GAST win probability +9.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:05GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:21USA 4th & 1 at USA 31, up 7
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:37USA 4th & 12 at GAST 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:25USA 4th & 8 at GAST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    47.1%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:56GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:43USA 4th & 4 at USA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00USA 4th & 20 at USA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−3.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:01GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:48USA 4th & 7 at USA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:30GAST 4th & 11 at GAST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:16USA 4th & 1 at USA 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:05USA 4th & 10 at USA 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:03GAST 4th & 5 at USA 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−10.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:03USA 4th & 11 at GAST 45, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−1.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    18.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:10USA 4th & 8 at GAST 20, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:05USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:25GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:11USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:16GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:05GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:33GAST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
43.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 14 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
43.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass intercepted Christian Bell return for 4 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:3344% → 45%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
44.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+11
44.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 11 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
44.1%
Desmond Trotter run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
45.4%
Carlos Davis run for 17 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
45.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
45.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Roger CarterSimilar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
45.1%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
45.1%
Michael Hayes punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3246% → 47%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
46.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Brandon Crum for 4 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
46.0%
Desmond Trotter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
45.9%
Carlos Davis run for 1 yd to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
46.6%
Jack Brooks punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 59 yds · 0:0053% → 54%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
46.7%
Destin Coates run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+12
46.7%
Jamyest Williams run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
46.5%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
46.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+18
46.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 18 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
46.2%
Destin Coates run for 17 yds to the SAlab 19 Destin Coates fumbled, forced by Riley Cole, recovered by SAlab Keon VoisinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
47.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 12 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
47.6%
Desmond Trotter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+11
47.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Trent Tyre for 11 yds Trent Tyre fumbled, forced by Jontrey Hunter, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
48.1%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
48.0%
Kawaan Baker run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+10
48.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 10 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
48.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-2
48.1%
Terrion Avery run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 12
OPP 39
0
47.6%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
47.3%
Jack Brooks punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
16 plays · 96 yds · 6:2850% → 55%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
50.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+5
50.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+2
50.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
50.2%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
50.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+4
50.4%
Jamyest Williams run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
50.1%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+15
50.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 15 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
49.5%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+27
49.1%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 27 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
48.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+17
49.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 17 yds to the SAlab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
49.8%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 5 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.8%
Cornelious Brown IV run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.6%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
47.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 9 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+17
48.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 17 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
49.6%
Carlos Davis run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
49.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 4 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
50.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Trent Tyre for 5 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
49.9%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Quavian WhiteSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-3
49.6%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Jordan Strachan for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 8
OPP 39
-2
48.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Carlos Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
45.4%
Brown, C. pass complete to Pinckney, Sam for 36 yards to the USA23, out-of-bounds (Gallmon, Keith), PENALTY GSU pass interference (Pinckney, Sam) 15 yards to the GSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 25
OWN 26
+9
47.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamyest Williams for 9 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+5
47.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamyest Williams for 5 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+23
47.1%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamyest Williams for 23 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
44.6%
Tucker Gregg run for no gain to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-15
44.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass intercepted Shawn Jennings return for 15 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0050% → 52%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
49.6%
Desmond Trotter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+11
49.7%
Desmond Trotter run for 11 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
51.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Brandon Crum for 3 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
51.6%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+8
50.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Terrion Avery for 8 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
52.1%
Terrion Avery run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 38 Terrion Avery fumbled, forced by Chris Moore, recovered by GeoSt Jaylon JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
45.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-2
44.2%
Tucker Gregg run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
45.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Sam Pinckney, broken up by A.J. DeShazorSimilar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+27
46.6%
Michael Hayes punt for 42 yds GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Jamyest Williams) to the SAlab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
50.6%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Brandon CrumSimilar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
50.3%
Carlos Davis run for 6 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
50.7%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Brandon CrumSimilar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
49.3%
Jack Brooks punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13INT
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:0654% → 58%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+42
45.6%
Jamyest Williams run for 42 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
42.0%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 2 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+3
42.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+6
42.6%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 6 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
41.4%
Tucker Gregg run for no gain to the SAlab 15Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
41.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass intercepted, touchback. Devin Rockette return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
51.0%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by Jacorey CrawfordSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
50.9%
Carlos Davis run for 9 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-1
50.8%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0052% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
51.6%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
51.2%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-9
49.8%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Hardrick Willis and Jeffery Clark for a loss of 9 yards to the SAlab 15Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
49.0%
Jack Brooks punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
46.9%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
46.6%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
47.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
49.6%
Michael Hayes punt for 58 yds, downed at the SAlab 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
51.3%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+9
51.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 9 yds to the SAlab 12Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+3
50.0%
Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
51.4%
Kawaan Baker run for 5 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-7
51.6%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Jacorey Crawford and Jeffery Clark for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 13Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+5
49.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 5 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
49.2%
Jack Brooks punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0053% → 49%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
47.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
48.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Sam Pinckney, broken up by Davyn FlenordSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
50.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incomplete to Terrance Dixon, broken up by Keon VoisinSimilar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
51.4%
Michael Hayes punt for 33 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain to the SAlab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:3253% → 76%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
53.2%
Jared Wilson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
55.5%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+12
53.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 12 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
56.4%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
55.7%
Jared Wilson run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+26
56.3%
Jared Wilson run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Blake Carroll) to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
58.2%
Jared Wilson run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.5%
Jared Wilson run for 7 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5532% → 56%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.7%
Matlin Marshall run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+65
65.5%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 65 yds to the SAlab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
43.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.4%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
53.7%
Desmond Trotter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
51.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Carlos Davis for 6 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
52.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4651% → 74%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
49.5%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+39
49.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 39 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
45.1%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
45.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamyest Williams for 5 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+33
26.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 33 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
32.3%
Caullin Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
32.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 1 yd to the SAlab 25Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
30.7%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by Chris BaconSimilar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+8
29.7%
Jack Brooks punt for 51 yds , Quavian White returns for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:4071% → 82%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
28.6%
Terrance Dixon run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+10
27.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 10 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
26.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 12 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
24.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
24.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamyest Williams for 6 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
24.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 2 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+2
23.9%
Cornelious Brown IV run for 2 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+25
24.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 25 yds to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
23.7%
Jamyest Williams run for 5 yds to the SAlab 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
23.7%
Jamyest Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
24.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for no gain to the SAlab 5Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
18.0%
Michael Hayes 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
18.9%
Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-4
19.2%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Akeem Smith and Jacorey Crawford for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 26Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+30
17.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 30 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
22.2%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Thomas Gore for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 14
OPP 48
0
20.3%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+3
19.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Terrion Avery for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
18.1%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Cade Sutherland, broken up by Jacorey CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 3:0687% → 97%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
13.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 5
50
+43
13.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 43 yds to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
12.8%
Tucker Gregg run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 9Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
12.8%
Gregg, Tucker rush for 1 yard to the USA8 (Sheriff, Jamie;Mobley, Nick), PENALTY USA holding (Thomas, Wy'Kvs) 5 yards to the USA4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
12.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 27DOWNS
16 plays · 55 yds · 4:234% → 2%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 6 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
4.2%
Desmond Trotter run for 10 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
4.4%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Terrion AverySimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
4.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 11 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
4.6%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Bryquice BrownSimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
4.6%
Terrion Avery run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
5.0%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
4.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Terrion Avery for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-8
5.3%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Hardrick Willis for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+19
4.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Cade Sutherland for 19 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-8
5.3%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Jordan Strachan for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 18
OPP 30
0
4.9%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 18
OPP 30
+10
4.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 10 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 8
OPP 20
0
2.4%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen Tolbert, broken up by Bryquice BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28Uncategorized
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
1.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
1.7%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:16
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)
-21.6
TD · Q3 2:05
Tucker Gregg run for 33 yds for a TD (Michael Hayes KICK)
-19.2
TD · Q3 6:11
Jared Wilson run for 7 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com